The election 2024 Thread

Published

I traditionally have a thread heading to the election, here we go.

Get out the popcorn for this one.

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to formally announce next week he is running for president in 2024, NBC News reported Thursday, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

The governor's official entry into the Republican primary field will put him head-to-head with former President Donald Trump, the party's current frontrunner for the nomination. Trump has already spent months treating DeSantis as his primary campaign rival, thrashing him with torrents of criticism over his gubernatorial record, his political skills and his personality.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/desantis-plans-to-officially-announce-presidential-run-next-week.html

Tweety said:

I do think Republicans want the mess to continue so they have a talking point to elect Trump and get rid of Biden, or at least Trump does which is why he's lobbying against it.

Maybe, maybe not.   This bill doesn't clean up the mess.

Maybe the Democrats picked now to come up with a lousy bill so they could either get what they want or try to make the Republicans look bad for killing it?  Remember, according to them there was no crisis at the border and the border has been secure.  Until now.

Specializes in NICU, PICU, Transport, L&D, Hospice.
Beerman said:

Maybe, maybe not.   This bill doesn't clean up the mess.

Maybe the Democrats picked now to come up with a lousy bill so they could either get what they want or try to make the Republicans look bad for killing it?  Remember, according to them there was no crisis at the border and the border has been secure.  Until now.

Yes.  It's politics in an election year.  Republicans get to decide how they are going to make themselves look as they decide if they serve their constituents or if they serve Donald Trump.  Senators Murphy, Sinema and Lankford negotiated the legislation over months. House Republicans should have anticipated this, but they seemed caught off guard.  

There are a couple of political messages that get challenged with this legislation.  Certainly, as you said, this bill addresses an immigration crisis that congressional democrats were hesitant to speak to.  There's also the political message that the border is a national security crisis and that Biden needs to fix it.  That message has been really loudly and widely shared by members of congress and it gets repeated all through the american culture. Now Republicans get to decide if the crisis is bad enough that they should take some legislative steps to improve the crisis or, it's not that bad and they should wait around for legislation that is more perfect, after they've milked the issue for the election.   

Democrats will be campaigning on this legislation, no matter if Republicans kill it or not.  Republicans must convince voters outside of Trump's devoted fan base that their decision to scuttle the bill was for the country and not just for the legally challenged former president.  

It was kind of interesting that this legislation became available at roughly the same time as House Republicans were trying to rush through articles of impeachment for Mayorkas. It was eye opening, watching and listening to them justify impeaching a cabinet member over immigration issues that they could address with this legislation. They couldn't pass that impeachment either.  

This is politics. 

toomuchbaloney said:

Now Republicans get to decide if the crisis is bad enough that they should take some legislative steps to improve the crisis or, it's not that bad and they should wait around for legislation that is more perfect, after they've milked the issue for the election.  

It doesn't fix it.  We're better off enforcing our current laws without new legislation.

toomuchbaloney said:

Democrats will be campaigning on this legislation, no matter if Republicans kill it or not.  Republicans must convince voters outside of Trump's devoted fan base that their decision to scuttle the bill was for the country and not just for the legally challenged former president.  

The problem for the Democrats will be that most Americans experienced and still believe that a Trump administration better handles the border situation.

Specializes in Med-Surg.
Beerman said:

Maybe, maybe not.   This bill doesn't clean up the mess.

Maybe the Democrats picked now to come up with a lousy bill so they could either get what they want or try to make the Republicans look bad for killing it?  Remember, according to them there was no crisis at the border and the border has been secure.  Until now.

 

I think my statement is a valid one in an election year albeit and opinion.    Cleaning up the border mess would be what's best for the country, but is it best for the re-election chances of Trump?

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But Trump probably still does benefit politically from a protracted border crisis. Even if Biden's approval rating on immigration isn't strongly tied to immigration levels, they could still affect how big of an issue immigration is in the 2024 election. Every month, Gallup asks Americans what they think the most important problem facing the country is, and the share who pick immigration actually tracks pretty closely with the number of people arrested by the Border Patrol.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-pushing-hard-border-bill/story?id=106908843

I can't disagree that the Democrats aren't going to take advantage of the fact that Republicans aren't passing a border bill either.   To me it seems more of a blow to Republicans and especially McConnell that it's failing.

Democrats can say "see!  They don't care about border control or compromise".  Can you blame them?

I do conceded that Harris was calling the border secure and there were arguments against that idea. But it's gotten worse.  For me as a health care provider it's not so much as there are illegals that slip through the system, but that there is so much fentanyl making it through.  All my life there as been an illegal drug problem in the US and we act so impotent to fix it.  

I also don't understand the idea of "open border" when arrests are at an all time high.

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 Republican senators made it clear Tuesday that they will kill the border security bill their party negotiated with Democrats, a stunning turnaround less than 48 hours after it was released by Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., and blessed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

McConnell, R-Ky. — overruled by his Senate GOP members, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and former President Donald Trump — conceded it has no path to passage.

"We had a very robust discussion about whether or not this product could ever become law. And it's been made pretty clear to us by the speaker that it will not become law,” McConnell told reporters. "So I want to congratulate Sen. Lankford on a remarkable job of negotiating with the other side, getting the support of the Border Council. But it looks to me, and to most of our members, as if we have no real chance here to make a law.”

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., put it more bluntly: "The bill is deader than 4 o'clock.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-republicans-knife-bipartisan-border-security-bill-declaring-dea-rcna137572

The Democrats didn't pick now to come up with a lousy bill.  This was not intended to be a "border bill" but an aid package to Israel and Ukraine.  Democrats were willing to make some compromises to get some of what they want.

God knows when Democrats were going to try to come up with a bill, but when were Republicans coming up with their bill  on their own, separate from unrelated bills again?

 

 

Specializes in Hospice.
Beerman said:

Maybe, maybe not.   This bill doesn't clean up the mess.

Maybe the Democrats picked now to come up with a lousy bill so they could either get what they want or try to make the Republicans look bad for killing it?  Remember, according to them there was no crisis at the border and the border has been secure.  Until now.

So - what do you want that the bill doesn't address? What border provisions in the bill do you think are wrong?

"Doesn't clean up the mess" is a non sequitur - no one gets everything they want in a compromise. 

Specializes in NICU, PICU, Transport, L&D, Hospice.
heron said:

So - what do you want that the bill doesn't address? What border provisions in the bill do you think are wrong?

"Doesn't clean up the mess" is a non sequitur - no one gets everything they want in a compromise. 

This question gets down to the basis of republican rhetoric on the border.  What is it that they want so badly that they'll throw away the entire package because it's not included? 

A few years back, I had a young dog that kept breaking out of my fenced back yard.  He wanted out and he was persistent.  The fence was old and really needed replacing but that project was not in my budget.  So I took some stop gap measures which seriously impeded his ability to get through the fence.  The temporary steps weren't pretty and they didn't resolve the issue permanently, but they improved the situation for my self, my dogs and my neighbors until I affected a more permanent replacement and repair.  My wife had a significant dispute with my temporary fix, it was very "Alaskan", there may even have been duct tape involved.  But, she recognized that after complaining about the dog getting out repeatedly, it made sense to tolerate a less than perfect improvement immediately, knowing that further improvements are just a matter of negotiating, planning and executing.  

Right now congressional Republicans are acting like nagging wives that won't accept anything short of exactly what they want when they want it.  I'm wondering why they are entitled to that belligerent attitude, and, if that isn't an abusive relationship where one party makes demands but then won't accept any attempt to meet those demands.  

Specializes in NICU, PICU, Transport, L&D, Hospice.
Beerman said:

It doesn't fix it.  We're better off enforcing our current laws without new legislation.

The problem for the Democrats will be that most Americans experienced and still believe that a Trump administration better handles the border situation.

Republicans will be left hoping and praying that they can maintain that perception as the biggest and most comprehensive immigration reform is shot down by zealots and Trump supporters who seem opposed to compromise.  It looks like that's a gamble that they are willing to take politically while they also gamble with American lives, refusing the funds and technology and personnel which would work to decrease the flow of fentanyl through our ports of entry.  They are hoping that they can convince people that republican  "leadership" on the border or immigration is "better" as this moves forward.  

Specializes in Vents, Telemetry, Home Care, Home infusion.

In January 2021, Biden sent a border bill to Congress to consider --ignored.

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The U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021 establishes a new system to responsibly manage and secure our border, keep our families and communities safe, and better manage migration across the Hemisphere

Whats in the Bipartisan Border Security Bill introduced today --- per Biden who says he will sign it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/biden-urges-congress-to-pass-bipartisan-border-security-bill-203715141645

 

McConnell's praise of  policy part of bill:

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/mcconnell-says-bipartisan-border-bill-has-no-chance-of-becoming-law-203721797947

 

The Guardian 2/6/24:

Show a little courage’: Biden attacks Republicans for 'caving' to Trump on US-Mexico border security bill

 

heron said:

So - what do you want that the bill doesn't address? What border provisions in the bill do you think are wrong?

"Doesn't clean up the mess" is a non sequitur - no one gets everything they want in a compromise. 

Let's actually secure the border and do something that curtains the huge numbers of migrants entering, as in millions in the last three years.

Maybe something like the House passed last year and that Schumer and the Senate have failed to do anything with.

Specializes in Vents, Telemetry, Home Care, Home infusion.

I've listened to his sports takes for years.  Haven't heard him get this political.  If he was running, would definitely be a Democrat I might vote for.

 

Specializes in Med-Surg.

A tale of polls:

From 2 days ago Fox News:

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Trump scores biggest lead yet over Biden, new poll shows

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6346296188112

From 2 days ago The Hill

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Biden is quietly narrowing the race against Trump, but challenges lie ahead

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4448796-biden-is-quietly-narrowing-the-race-against-trump-but-challenges-lie-ahead/

 

Yesterday Politico

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New Wisconsin poll shows Trump tied with Biden, Haley ahead by 15 points

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/07/haley-biden-trump-wisconsin-poll-00140200

Note the Politico Poll is just Wisconsin and I do think nationally Trump is still ahead should the election be held today as we've discussed.

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