I predict that in 3-4 weeks time there will be significant discussion brought to light by academic epidemiologists on Twitter about COVID-19 as a possible extinction event. I could be wrong, but let's look at the numbers. We have a contagious disease that is as deadly as the 1918 pandemic with all of modern medicine being thrown at it. In 1918, the 5% of critically ill covid-19 cases would surely have died - excluding those rare minor miracles. A higher percentage of patients requiring admission, but not intubation, would also surely pass away.
Nobody is certain that we will be able to keep up a sophisticated level of care, and in that case you're looking at a significant jump in mortality rate as critically and moderately ill patients cannot be treated due to the overwhelming surge.
COVID-19 is not showing many signs of being susceptible to weather. Hot and humid locations across our own country are seeing their own exponential outbreaks. Any flattening of the curve will only last until social distancing measures are lifted. Nobody can be absolutely certain that active immunity (antibodies made after an infection) will last long enough to prevent yearly reinfection, and so there is the possibility that we'll see this return year after year.
Unless we develop a vaccine, we will have an endemic virus that infects 50-70% of our population and has a mortality rate that is 2-5x that of the spanish flu and will cripple a healthcare system that doesn't find a way to grow itself by 3-400% whilst protecting the workers.
The birth rate is only 1.8% folks. Essentially, we'll be spending 7% our of money and only getting 1.8% back in returns. The principle won't last forever and the human race will eventually go out of business.
They can't even come up with a reliable annual flu vaccine, and that flu is much less severe than this. We aren't even at peak in a few cities in the U.S. and the numbers are astounding. I've been following the reports out of China since mid January, when they thought they might be looking at a SARS event. Chineses docs were posting papers on line about the virus having segments of RNA from MERS, HIV, and SARS. Scientists couldn't explain why the RNA segments from all different vectors could have merged into this virus in the wild, not impossible, but very unusual. Highly suspicious of CRISPR editing, which is why the Chinese are now claiming the U.S. made this virus at Fort Detrick. They could have easily made it themselves at the Biosafety Level 4 lab in Wuhan, in the same area as that fabled animal market (fiction!). Who ever made it and let it loose, if that's what happened has some serious karma to address.
They can't even come up with a reliable annual flu vaccine, and that flu is much less severe than this. We aren't even at peak in a few cities in the U.S. and the numbers are astounding. I've been following the reports out of China since mid January, when they thought they might be looking at a SARS event. Chineses docs were posting papers on line about the virus having segments of RNA from MERS, HIV, and SARS. Scientists couldn't explain why the RNA segments from all different vectors could have merged into this virus in the wild, not impossible, but very unusual. Highly suspicious of CRISPR editing, which is why the Chinese are now claiming the U.S. made this virus at Fort Detrick. They could have easily made it themselves at the Biosafety Level 4 lab in Wuhan, in the same area as that fabled animal market (fiction!). Who ever made it and let it loose, if that's what happened has some serious karma to address.
I mean, I'm not going to say that you're wildly off base. But I hope we don't descend down the bioweapon theory route. It's pretty far fetched. Discussing conspiracy theories about the origin of covid-19 is not the purpose of this thread.
The black death had a CFR between 1% and 15% and wiped out half of Europe. If covid-19 presented itself to the world in 1333, it would have had a similar impact, if not worse - given that it's a virus and is not dependent on weather patterns and/or relationship between host and transport carrier (flea and rat).
If a pathogen that wipes out 40 million creatures and has no known cure doesn't register as a threat to it's target species, then you're just living in denial.
But life went on after the plague. People survived. And this isn't 1333. It's 2020. Brilliant minds are working on developing a vaccine and on developing treatments. This hasn't wiped out 40 million creatures and I seriously doubt it will. Even if it does, there are over 7 Billion people on the planet. This isn't an extinction level event.
3 hours ago, toomuchbaloney said:
So...if we assume that an effective vaccine can be developed and we learn that long term immunity can be achieved after vaccination or exposure...probably not extinction level.
But...if, like other coronavirus, vaccines are difficult and not very effective, and there is no acquired immunity...it could be very problematic.
It is very contagious. It's 's going to be with us forever...
Problematic, sure. Here forever, of course. Extinction level event? I just don't see it. The numbers don't add up.
You're not understanding the point. This isn't the current mortality rate.
This is a worst case scenario in the setting of an overwhelmed and nearly defunct healthcare system, or if this disease occurred before the age of modern medicine.
5-10% absolutely require critical care, based upon controlled samples from cruise ships. You don't survive without a vent if you need a vent.
statnews - nice source, LOL. Maybe we have you to thank for our current president, you sound like a fake news type of poster.
Specializes in Psychiatry, Community, Nurse Manager, hospice.
On 3/31/2020 at 12:58 AM, DannyBoy8 said:
10-20% of the those infected in a given outbreak would die, then again the next year as reinfection occurs, and again the next year, and so on......should covid-19 go unchecked by a vaccine.
You aren't accounting for population growth. COVID 19 might very slightly outpace population growth this year. Maybe. Population growth was 1.08% in 2019. If it does reverse population growth, it will do so by mostly taking out people who wouldn't have reproduced the following year. So it probably won't reverse the trend to a population shrink.
COVID 19 isn't going to kill 10% of the population by anyone's estimate. That's too high.
And the damage it does this year, is not going to be the same as the damage it does next year. At least some folks will have some immunity. We'll at least know more about it.
I just can't see extinction no matter how you slice it. Even if we line up all the worst case scenarios.
I'm sure we can wipe ourselves out somehow! There's always nuclear war! It's just not going to be this, by itself at least.
The black death had a CFR between 1% and 15% and wiped out half of Europe. If covid-19 presented itself to the world in 1333, it would have had a similar impact, if not worse - given that it's a virus and is not dependent on weather patterns and/or relationship between host and transport carrier (flea and rat).
If a pathogen that wipes out 40 million creatures and has no known cure doesn't register as a threat to it's target species, then you're just living in denial.
I believe that we will most likely have an effective vaccine.
My point is that without it, the math adds up to a virus that could threaten our species.
I'm probably more pessimistic than many epidemiologists seem to be about the effects of covid19 - I doubt the real case fatality rate is below 1%, though many seem to be banking on this; I doubt a vaccine will be ready soon or possibly even that an effective one can be developed at all given difficulties vaccinating against the most similar known corona viruses; I hope we develop some kind of effective treatment that severely mitigates the illness soon, but I dont see any of the ones being touted so far as that miracle RX; I personally believe that the 100k-300k figures being thrown around as a likely death toll in the US are probably a best case scenario right now.
But with all that said, you would have to make certain assumptions to conclude this could be a serious threat to our species, and I doubt those assumptions as well. Namely you'd have to believe that people can readily be reinfected after illness and repeated illness, and that doesnt appear to be true from what we see so far. Theres probably at least temporary immunity, and lasting immunity is unknown, but reasonably likely. Youd have to assume that no effective treatment will be discovered for several or many years while this rages - I dont know about a quick fix, but given time, we do pretty well against infectious diseases. Youd probably have to assume that the virus gets worse in terms of case fatality either as time passes or as people get it repeatedly, and there's no good reason to think that AFAIK. And you'd have to assume that changing conditions among our virus-ravaged society won't be enough to bring the infectious rate below 1 spread per new case. Given the success of China and Korea in controlling spread, that's probably unlikely.
All of these things would have to be true for this to be as apocalyptic as you're worried. Probably none of them are true.
Still, its going to be plenty bad, best I can tell.
They'll give a MSN to anybody now it appears. Sad that a nurse is saying such stupid things.
Society is teetering on the edge of a giant cliff the modern world has never seen. You think the great depression was bad? Get ready for 50+% unemployment and sustained strain on taxed healthcare systems around the world. Coronavirus will make Ebola's impact on West African nations look like a bad hair day. Those same countries whose infrastructure collapsed under Ebola, are about to burn to the ground - this time they'll be nobody to call, as the rest of the world is busy fighting the same fight.
If you want to play the who has degrees from where game, I promise that you're not winning.
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11blade, RN
51 Posts
They can't even come up with a reliable annual flu vaccine, and that flu is much less severe than this. We aren't even at peak in a few cities in the U.S. and the numbers are astounding. I've been following the reports out of China since mid January, when they thought they might be looking at a SARS event. Chineses docs were posting papers on line about the virus having segments of RNA from MERS, HIV, and SARS. Scientists couldn't explain why the RNA segments from all different vectors could have merged into this virus in the wild, not impossible, but very unusual. Highly suspicious of CRISPR editing, which is why the Chinese are now claiming the U.S. made this virus at Fort Detrick. They could have easily made it themselves at the Biosafety Level 4 lab in Wuhan, in the same area as that fabled animal market (fiction!). Who ever made it and let it loose, if that's what happened has some serious karma to address.