COVID-19 and extinction of human species

[DannyBoy8, RN]

I predict that in 3-4 weeks time there will be significant discussion brought to light by academic epidemiologists on Twitter about COVID-19 as a possible extinction event. I could be wrong, but let's look at the numbers. We have a contagious disease that is as deadly as the 1918 pandemic with all of modern medicine being thrown at it. In 1918, the 5% of critically ill covid-19 cases would surely have died - excluding those rare minor miracles. A higher percentage of patients requiring admission, but not intubation, would also surely pass away.

Nobody is certain that we will be able to keep up a sophisticated level of care, and in that case you're looking at a significant jump in mortality rate as critically and moderately ill patients cannot be treated due to the overwhelming surge.

COVID-19 is not showing many signs of being susceptible to weather. Hot and humid locations across our own country are seeing their own exponential outbreaks. Any flattening of the curve will only last until social distancing measures are lifted. Nobody can be absolutely certain that active immunity (antibodies made after an infection) will last long enough to prevent yearly reinfection, and so there is the possibility that we'll see this return year after year.

Unless we develop a vaccine, we will have an endemic virus that infects 50-70% of our population and has a mortality rate that is 2-5x that of the spanish flu and will cripple a healthcare system that doesn't find a way to grow itself by 3-400% whilst protecting the workers.

The birth rate is only 1.8% folks. Essentially, we'll be spending 7% our of money and only getting 1.8% back in returns. The principle won't last forever and the human race will eventually go out of business.

Thoughts?

[Naturally Brilliant, BSN, RN]

...What? The mortality rate for Coronavirus is about 1-2%. Higher than the flu, but it's not exactly Ebola.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

[HiddenAngels]

they'll develop a vaccine..... I hope?

[DannyBoy8, RN]

8 minutes ago, HiddenAngels said:

they'll develop a vaccine

Let's hope.

[HiddenAngels]

hey I was just editing ....?

[DannyBoy8, RN]

17 minutes ago, Naturally Brilliant said:

...What? The mortality rate for Coronavirus is about 1-2%. Higher than the flu, but it's not exactly Ebola.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

Most of the academic community initially agreed that covid-19 makes ebola look like child's play - as proven by the widespread pandemic we have compared to the controlled and eliminated spread of ebola. Covid-19 will be endemic, an ebola outbreak is a finite event.

Given a modern and functioned health system, it isn't the death rate of covid-19 that is the real issue, it is the fact that 20% of patients are severely ill and a not-so-insignificant portion of them require critical care. What would happen to those folks given no sophisticated care? They would die.

[HiddenAngels]

Interesting that you mentioned the chances of reinfection... Let's hope if there is a vaccine that it's not some trial vaccine, like that flu shot from 2018 where most people still caught the flu and they said it was from a different strain..... Honestly I don't think I can take another poke from occupational. But knowing me, I will...

[DannyBoy8, RN]

1 minute ago, HiddenAngels said:

Interesting that you mentioned the chances of reinfection... Let's hope if there is a vaccine that it's not some trial vaccine, like that flu shot from 2018 where most people still caught the flu and they said it was from a different strain..... Honestly I don't think I can take another poke from occupational. But knowing me, I will...

I believe that we will most likely have an effective vaccine.

My point is that without it, the math adds up to a virus that could threaten our species.

[HiddenAngels]

7 minutes ago, DannyBoy8 said:

Given a modern and functioned health system, it isn't the death rate of covid-19 that is the real issue, it is the fact that 20% of patients are severely ill and a not-so-insignificant portion of them require critical care. What would happen to those folks given no sophisticated care? They would die.

So true, hence the urgency for them to come up with a vaccine, which I pray they will. This will come back around....

[LL2788, BSN, RN]

I agree with you. That is why when I tell people we will likely have to social distance for atleast 6 months to a year and they disagree I don’t understand the logic. The healthcare system will eventually collapse in the US without PPE and equipment.

[HiddenAngels]

4 minutes ago, DannyBoy8 said:

I believe that we will most likely have an effective vaccine.

My point is that without it, the math adds up to a virus that could threaten our species.

True indeed.. We have some of the greatest minds working nonstop on a cure right now, this helps me to sleep better at night...

[HiddenAngels]

9 minutes ago, LL2788 said:

I agree with you. That is why when I tell people we will likely have to social distance for atleast 6 months to a year and they disagree I don’t understand the logic. The healthcare system will eventually collapse in the US without PPE and equipment.

You know I think people are in disbelief/shock, myself and my family included and we are scattered throughout the states. This isn't something we thought could ever happen (the country shutting down).. It's hard to process even as a HCW.