I predict that in 3-4 weeks time there will be significant discussion brought to light by academic epidemiologists on Twitter about COVID-19 as a possible extinction event. I could be wrong, but let's look at the numbers. We have a contagious disease that is as deadly as the 1918 pandemic with all of modern medicine being thrown at it. In 1918, the 5% of critically ill covid-19 cases would surely have died - excluding those rare minor miracles. A higher percentage of patients requiring admission, but not intubation, would also surely pass away.
Nobody is certain that we will be able to keep up a sophisticated level of care, and in that case you're looking at a significant jump in mortality rate as critically and moderately ill patients cannot be treated due to the overwhelming surge.
COVID-19 is not showing many signs of being susceptible to weather. Hot and humid locations across our own country are seeing their own exponential outbreaks. Any flattening of the curve will only last until social distancing measures are lifted. Nobody can be absolutely certain that active immunity (antibodies made after an infection) will last long enough to prevent yearly reinfection, and so there is the possibility that we'll see this return year after year.
Unless we develop a vaccine, we will have an endemic virus that infects 50-70% of our population and has a mortality rate that is 2-5x that of the spanish flu and will cripple a healthcare system that doesn't find a way to grow itself by 3-400% whilst protecting the workers.
The birth rate is only 1.8% folks. Essentially, we'll be spending 7% our of money and only getting 1.8% back in returns. The principle won't last forever and the human race will eventually go out of business.
The 2017–2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths.
The 2019-2020 flu season (so far) has had 370,000 hospitalizations. CDC estimated that there have been at least 22,000 deaths related to the flu so far this season.
COVID-19 (as of 2130 on 3/31) 188,172 confirmed cases and 3873 deaths.
So far this year, flu has killed 7X more Americans than the COVID-19. How is this a potential extinction event? According to the Task force briefing today, the number of cases per day will peak by the end of the month.
Ah, the 'compare covid to the flu' guy chimes in. This effort was so 4 weeks ago. The executive branch held a briefing today and are expecting 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in this country alone.
Keep in mind, the government has and will continue to downplay what they actually expect.
This isn't a conspiracy on the governments party to deceive the public. In fact, it is chapter 1, 2, or 3 in any public health emergency textbook - maintain order by not causing alarm, but also balance the ethical duty to not mislead.
fwiw I just recalculated and the number is much lower, closer to .3% HOWEVER, these are all just estimates- I just saw an article today claiming that China's official numbers are actually much higher than what they reported because they only counted infected if they were also symptomatic- which is crazy.
Other sound estimates I've seen were based on the cruise ship numbers, which are as close to a controlled environment. as we have as far as data right now. At least one of those ships came out with a 0.5% CFR.
Finally, it does seem to have a much higher Rnaught number than other respiratory viruses and appears to survive on surfaces much longer.
I am in no way trying to downplay the seriousness of covid19. All of its characteristics combined make it very dangerous. But I am tired of seeing poorly calculated CFRs being thrown around.
For everyone reading this: please please please do not attempt to calculate the CFR (mortality rate) by dividing the known number of dead by the known number of infected. That is 100% incorrect. please stop doing it. It will likely be years before we have anything approaching an accurate number. STOP.
So, based upon the controlled population of the cruise ship, we can estimate a .5% CFR. That is not far off from your original estimate, and .3% is hardly much lower than .7%.
Without critical care medicine, a vaccine, and a massive expansion of healthcare delivery system, covid-19 could pose a threat to humans.
Ah, the 'compare covid to the flu' guy chimes in. This effort was so 4 weeks ago. The executive branch held a briefing today and are expecting 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in this country alone.
Even using 200,000 deaths, that is 0.067% of the population dying from COVID-19. While 200,000 deaths is tragic, it is far from an extinction event (647,000 die from heart disease and 610,000 die from cancer each year).
It was my understanding that the deaths are predominantly the elderly and people like myself with serious preexisting conditions.
As awful a reality as it is, a large portion of diabetics, hypertensive, elderly, obese, etc. individuals dying would actually reduce medical costs in the long run.
Also, herd immunity will come into play as the young survive the virus and it loses its ability to spread. This is a promising path based on its slow rate of mutation.
I still have my hopes for a vaccine relatively quickly. There are something like 6 being developed right now and I believe at least two are in trials.
covid-19 is expected to be endemic.....so that means reinfection year after year and 10-20% of those infected dead each wave; year after year.........without a vaccine.
Your statistics are wrong. Maybe watching too much MSM?
You're not understanding the point. This isn't the current mortality rate.
This is a worst case scenario in the setting of an overwhelmed and nearly defunct healthcare system, or if this disease occurred before the age of modern medicine.
5-10% absolutely require critical care, based upon controlled samples from cruise ships. You don't survive without a vent if you need a vent.
statnews - nice source, LOL. Maybe we have you to thank for our current president, you sound like a fake news type of poster.
Also, herd immunity will come into play as the young survive the virus and it loses its ability to spread. This is a promising path based on its slow rate of mutation.
Herd immunity won't mean much when it only lasts for a few months.
10-20% of the those infected in a given outbreak would die, then again the next year as reinfection occurs, and again the next year, and so on......should covid-19 go unchecked by a vaccine.
First of all, we will develop a vaccine, many are working on it now. Second, in between recurrences, there will still be births. Third, those who get it and survive may be immune the next time around (obviously we don't know that yet, but it's possible). Finally, even if those who get it this time around are not immune next time, it won't be novel anymore giving us an edge. Not to mention that the 10-20% is those who are infected, not those who aren't and not everyone will be infected.
The black death had a CFR between 1% and 15% and wiped out half of Europe. If covid-19 presented itself to the world in 1333, it would have had a similar impact, if not worse - given that it's a virus and is not dependent on weather patterns and/or relationship between host and transport carrier (flea and rat).
If a pathogen that wipes out 40 million creatures and has no known cure doesn't register as a threat to it's target species, then you're just living in denial.
You're not understanding the point. This isn't the current mortality rate.
This is a worst case scenario in the setting of an overwhelmed and nearly defunct healthcare system, or if this disease occurred before the age of modern medicine.
This is not occurring in an overwhelmed and defunct healthcare system. Outside of NYC, the rest of the country's hospitals are not overwhelmed. We are in the age of modern medicine. What is your point?
fwiw I just recalculated and the number is much lower, closer to .3% HOWEVER, these are all just estimates- I just saw an article today claiming that China's official numbers are actually much higher than what they reported because they only counted infected if they were also symptomatic- which is crazy.
Other sound estimates I've seen were based on the cruise ship numbers, which are as close to a controlled environment. as we have as far as data right now. At least one of those ships came out with a 0.5% CFR.
Finally, it does seem to have a much higher Rnaught number than other respiratory viruses and appears to survive on surfaces much longer.
I am in no way trying to downplay the seriousness of covid19. All of its characteristics combined make it very dangerous. But I am tired of seeing poorly calculated CFRs being thrown around.
For everyone reading this: please please please do not attempt to calculate the CFR (mortality rate) by dividing the known number of dead by the known number of infected. That is 100% incorrect. please stop doing it. It will likely be years before we have anything approaching an accurate number. STOP.
China only included symptomatic cases in their CFR calculations because that's what a CFR is, asymptomatic presumed cases are included in the IFR not the CFR.
Like all CDR data, we consider it in the context of the reliability of the data, China's CFR data for instance is considered in the context that they're reported total deaths appears to be about a tenth of it's actual deaths.
I assume your scolding at the end is misstated or that your mistakenly forgot to add that a CFR calculation must be considered in the context of the reliability of the data that went into the calculation, this is just as true now as it is a year out from a pandemic. All data has limitations based on the data that went into it, that doesn't mean we don't calculate the data, we just consider how to view the data based on the context. A CFR of 1% for instance might be far more concerning than a CFR of 10% for instance; if the CFR of 10% was based on a total number of cases in the US of 100 over the course of a year, whereas the CFR of 1% came from a rapidly spreading pathogen that affects half the population and 1% of cases have already died when most of the cases have not yet reached the stage of the course of the illness where death is likely to occur.
It of course would be absurd not to analyze CFR data very early in an evolving pandemic, even though this data might bear little resemblance to the data we'll have long after the pandemic is over. This is the data that drives containment measures, which is far more useful than the much more reliable data we get after it's all over.
DannyBoy8, RN
219 Posts
Ah, the 'compare covid to the flu' guy chimes in. This effort was so 4 weeks ago. The executive branch held a briefing today and are expecting 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in this country alone.
Keep in mind, the government has and will continue to downplay what they actually expect.
This isn't a conspiracy on the governments party to deceive the public. In fact, it is chapter 1, 2, or 3 in any public health emergency textbook - maintain order by not causing alarm, but also balance the ethical duty to not mislead.