I predict that in 3-4 weeks time there will be significant discussion brought to light by academic epidemiologists on Twitter about COVID-19 as a possible extinction event. I could be wrong, but let's look at the numbers. We have a contagious disease that is as deadly as the 1918 pandemic with all of modern medicine being thrown at it. In 1918, the 5% of critically ill covid-19 cases would surely have died - excluding those rare minor miracles. A higher percentage of patients requiring admission, but not intubation, would also surely pass away.
Nobody is certain that we will be able to keep up a sophisticated level of care, and in that case you're looking at a significant jump in mortality rate as critically and moderately ill patients cannot be treated due to the overwhelming surge.
COVID-19 is not showing many signs of being susceptible to weather. Hot and humid locations across our own country are seeing their own exponential outbreaks. Any flattening of the curve will only last until social distancing measures are lifted. Nobody can be absolutely certain that active immunity (antibodies made after an infection) will last long enough to prevent yearly reinfection, and so there is the possibility that we'll see this return year after year.
Unless we develop a vaccine, we will have an endemic virus that infects 50-70% of our population and has a mortality rate that is 2-5x that of the spanish flu and will cripple a healthcare system that doesn't find a way to grow itself by 3-400% whilst protecting the workers.
The birth rate is only 1.8% folks. Essentially, we'll be spending 7% our of money and only getting 1.8% back in returns. The principle won't last forever and the human race will eventually go out of business.
You know I think people are in disbelief/shock, myself and my family included and we are scattered throughout the states. This isn't something we thought could ever happen (the country shutting down).. It's hard to process even as a HCW.
I think I understand it, but at the same time it hasn’t really processed in me.
Given a modern and functioned health system, it isn't the death rate of covid-19 that is the real issue, it is the fact that 20% of patients are severely ill and a not-so-insignificant portion of them require critical care. What would happen to those folks given no sophisticated care? They would die.
? (Is there a face palm emoji on this thing?) This isn't even close to an extinction event pandemic. Not by a long shot. You do realize that, right?
Even if no one received intensive care, we'd lose about 20% of the population worst case scenario and with the vast vast majority already out of their reproductive years. So... huh?
Also, the mortality rates for COVID-19 are extraordinarily skewed by a massive selection bias. The only people getting tested by and large are the severely ill. There are far more cases than have actually been confirmed. If you look at Iceland where they are attempting to test every single citizen, they've found that about 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. 50%.
While I agree that this has the potential to be incredibly devastating to world's population, I don't quite see the extinction of mankind. Even if 20% of the population died, that still leaves 80%, many of whom can and will have children. Am I missing something?
While I agree that this has the potential to be incredibly devastating to world's population, I don't quite see the extinction of mankind. Even if 20% of the population died, that still leaves 80%, many of whom can and will have children. Am I missing something?
10-20% of the those infected in a given outbreak would die, then again the next year as reinfection occurs, and again the next year, and so on......should covid-19 go unchecked by a vaccine.
? (Is there a face palm emoji on this thing?) This isn't even close to an extinction event pandemic. Not by a long shot. You do realize that, right?
Even if no one received intensive care, we'd lose about 20% of the population worst case scenario and with the vast vast majority already out of their reproductive years. So... huh?
Also, the mortality rates for COVID-19 are extraordinarily skewed by a massive selection bias. The only people getting tested by and large are the severely ill. There are far more cases than have actually been confirmed. If you look at Iceland where they are attempting to test every single citizen, they've found that about 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. 50%.
Everyone, finally, we have an authority!
Facepalm back at you, big boy.
covid-19 is expected to be endemic.....so that means reinfection year after year and 10-20% of those infected dead each wave; year after year.........without a vaccine.
It does not take much to out pace the birth rate.
That being said, I'm sure we'll have a largely effective vaccine in 2020 or 2021. But if this was pre-vaccine.....covid-19 would surely threaten our species.
covid-19 is expected to be endemic.....so that means reinfection year after year and 10-20% of those infected dead each wave; year after year.........without a vaccine.
It does not take much to out pace the birth rate.
That being said, I'm sure we'll have a largely effective vaccine in 2020 or 2021. But if this was pre-vaccine.....covid-19 would surely threaten our species.
I'm not sure where you're getting your 10-20% mortality rate from, but even if that were true, it's not mathematically possible for this to result in extinction given the concentration of high mortality risk in certain (older) age groups.
No. Just.... no. I’m sorry but your math is not accurate here. we still do not have an accurate case fatality rate on covid 19. In order to do that, we need to know the total number infected, asymptotic and all. Everyone.
the models I’ve seen suggest that the positive test numbers we do have represent only 20% of the total people that have been infected.
CFR Is calculated by the total deaths/total infected
when you calculate CFR with a higher number, assuming that the number we have is only 20% of the number actually infected, you get a mortality rate of around 0.7%
That is still much worse than the flus we have vaccines for (7x worse) but nowhere near an extinction-level event.
the biggest issue is that our systems are always right on the edge of capacity anyhow. We cannot absorb an illness that is 7x more deadly than our usual seasonal flus
the biggest issue is that our systems are always right on the edge of capacity anyhow. We cannot absorb an illness that is 7x more deadly than our usual seasonal flus
And that's my point, your estimate of .7% mortality is dependent upon care being received. If care cannot be provided due to an overwhelmed system, or if this was 1918 and there was a complete lack of critical care, we would see a significant jump in mortality. Your .7% isn't that far away from 1.8%
And that's my point, your estimate of .7% mortality is dependent upon care being received. If care cannot be provided due to an overwhelmed system, or if this was 1918 and there was a complete lack of critical care, we would see a significant jump in mortality. Your .7% isn't that far away from 1.8%
fwiw I just recalculated and the number is much lower, closer to .3% HOWEVER, these are all just estimates- I just saw an article today claiming that China's official numbers are actually much higher than what they reported because they only counted infected if they were also symptomatic- which is crazy.
Other sound estimates I've seen were based on the cruise ship numbers, which are as close to a controlled environment. as we have as far as data right now. At least one of those ships came out with a 0.5% CFR.
Finally, it does seem to have a much higher Rnaught number than other respiratory viruses and appears to survive on surfaces much longer.
I am in no way trying to downplay the seriousness of covid19. All of its characteristics combined make it very dangerous. But I am tired of seeing poorly calculated CFRs being thrown around.
For everyone reading this: please please please do not attempt to calculate the CFR (mortality rate) by dividing the known number of dead by the known number of infected. That is 100% incorrect. please stop doing it. It will likely be years before we have anything approaching an accurate number. STOP.
The 2017–2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths.
The 2019-2020 flu season (so far) has had 370,000 hospitalizations. CDC estimated that there have been at least 22,000 deaths related to the flu so far this season.
COVID-19 (as of 2130 on 3/31) 188,172 confirmed cases and 3873 deaths.
So far this year, flu has killed 7X more Americans than the COVID-19. How is this a potential extinction event? According to the Task force briefing today, the number of cases per day will peak by the end of the month.
For everyone reading this: please please please do not attempt to calculate the CFR (mortality rate) by dividing the known number of dead by the known number of infected.
I agree. The only way to get a true number is to do an anti-body test on everyone. There are many that had COVID -19 that had mild symptoms which they thought was a cold/flu. If they were tested now, they would be negative for the virus. You need the total number infected (tested and non-tested) which includes: recovered, currently infected, dead.
LL2788, BSN, RN
44 Posts
I think I understand it, but at the same time it hasn’t really processed in me.