Swine flu raises fear of pandemic - Adults and Children

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Specializes in Home Care,Psych, Long Term Care.
Some news cannot be confirmed 100% as well as some come from unchecked sources.We dont know the situations of those two students (their health status,comorbidities etc).We also cannot confirm the deaths in Mexico,news can tell us laypeople anything,even that Osama Bin laden send another threat!:)

We are not sure what is happening-it may be bad or it may be nothing. Either way, I thank you for your input, because you may be correct. Wishes for good health for you and your family, no matter who is right or wrong!

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Specializes in critical care, PACU.
Some news cannot be confirmed 100% as well as some come from unchecked sources.We dont know the situations of those two students (their health status,comorbidities etc).We also cannot confirm the deaths in Mexico,news can tell us laypeople anything,even that Osama Bin laden send another threat!:)

while it is good to be skeptical and rational, I have always had a strong respect for the flu and never have or ever will take it likely. Its hard to pass this off as "just the flu" when your run-of-the-mill flu claims 34,000 lives/year...although that number could be fabricated from the CIA to cover the WHO's butt if this whole thing doesnt end well ;-) [sorry I couldnt help myself]

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Specializes in Critical care, tele, Medical-Surgical.

Flu pandemic could overload U.S. health system

A rapidly spreading flu outbreak may quickly overload a U.S. health system already straining from hospital closures, cuts in public health funding, a nursing shortage and too many uninsured patients, health experts said on Friday.

They said the threat of a flu pandemic caused by an unusual new strain of the H1N1 influenza virus has shone a bright light on what may see as a broken U.S. health system....

...A survey this week by the American Hospital Association found that six out of 10 hospitals have more patients without insurance coming through their emergency departments.

Yet nearly half of hospitals reported they have cut staff.

"There is no question it comes at a bad time," Dr. Lynn Massingale, executive chairman of TeamHealth, which supplies emergency department physicians to some 300 U.S. hospitals, said in a telephone interview.

"Hospital emergency department visits have grown at a rate of 2 or 3 percent a year for the last 15 or 20 years," he said. "Almost all ERs are busy. They are strained financially."

He said many hospitals have been forced to close certain floors because there are not enough nurses to keep them open....

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5404W420090501?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&sp=true

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No I havent read all the pages of this thread (too much time!) however I see people begining to panic for no obvious reason and it is getting frustrating when healthcare professionals give in to propaganda.

The concern isn't so much for THIS round of outbreaks- but if this follows the 1918 pattern, it can come back in another wave after mutating and picking up traits that make it far more lethal. There is a communication gap between what is being said and most people's understanding of virology (including my own as I am no expert) but I do 'get' that this current outbreak isn't really what they're so concerned about *directly*....

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Specializes in Critical care, tele, Medical-Surgical.

When a lethal virus is pandemic it will be too late. Better to prepare now.

And who better to lead than nurses?

Many States Do Not Meet Readiness Standards

Friday, May 1, 2009

More than two dozen states, including Maryland, as well as the District, have not stocked enough of the emergency supplies of antiviral medications considered necessary to treat victims of swine flu should the outbreak become a full-blown crisis, according to federal records. ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/30/AR2009043004265.html

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Specializes in NICU, Post-partum.

I am personally, not concerned about the swine flu.

I think it is very, very shameful that more circumstances are not being released about the population that is actually dying.

Over 36,000 people die every year from different strains of the flu....36,000....that should put this particular flu into perspective for most people...and it was released yesterday that they have isolated the virus and will come out with a vaccine in about 4 months. It doesn't have to be tested on animals because they have perfected the flu vaccine...it's just a matter of finding the particular strain and getting it under control before it mutates.

The flu of any type is contagious.

From what I have been reading, I am not sure if anyone has been to Mexico or not, but what you see in the cities is not how the MAJORITY of people live. They have a serious lack of middle class, they live in cramped conditions, no air conditioning or clean water (by US standards) is par for the course.

Good healthcare in Mexico is very hard to come by..especially for the common worker.

You can easily die of ANY type of flu if it goes untreated.

Yes, an infant died in Texas....but it was also an infant...we all know that the young and the old are always the most affected when it comes to these types of disorders.

When the numbers start reaching insanely high over a short period of time, I'll be worried...but so far, that isn't happening.

Remember SARS? The Bird Flu? The ones they swore would wipe out half the population.

It got the same amount of press that this is getting.

Now you don't even hear about it.

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Specializes in med/surg, ER, camp nursing.

"When the numbers start reaching insanely high over a short period of time, I'll be worried...but so far, that isn't happening."

When the numbers get insanely high is when it will have already have been TOO LATE to implement preventive measures!

Believe me, I am totally with you that the press is always hyping these kind of stories way out of proportion. I am not one to stock pile a years worth of food and water in my basement and think airplanes should be grounded if a passenger has a cough. Thats crazy! But I think we do have to learn from history. The 1918 Flu was mild to begin with then became more deadly with every mutation. And unlike the typical Flu, it was especially deadly to the 18-35 young and healthy population not the very young and old. It would be ignorant of us to presume, just because severity and number of cases are relatively low at this point, that things will not get exponentially worse.

I hope this thing will end up being nothing. But I for one am watching this very cautiously.

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Specializes in NICU, Post-partum.
"When the numbers start reaching insanely high over a short period of time, I'll be worried...but so far, that isn't happening."

When the numbers get insanely high is when it will have already have been TOO LATE to implement preventive measures!

Believe me, I am totally with you that the press is always hyping these kind of stories way out of proportion. I am not one to stock pile a years worth of food and water in my basement and think airplanes should be grounded if a passenger has a cough. Thats crazy! But I think we do have to learn from history. The 1918 Flu was mild to begin with then became more deadly with every mutation. And unlike the typical Flu, it was especially deadly to the 18-35 young and healthy population not the very young and old. It would be ignorant of us to presume, just because severity and number of cases are relatively low at this point, that things will not get exponentially worse.

I hope this thing will end up being nothing. But I for one am watching this very cautiously.

I am more or less speaking of the media hype.

The press has taken this story and it has got out of control.

There is nothing wrong with informing the public of protective measures, such as the masks that they are passing out in Mexico, etc.

Nothing wrong with that at all.

However, the press is treating this Swine Flu as if it's automatically fatal if you get it...because the majority of the laypeople I have been talking to...that is EXACTLY what they think it is.

My point is...over 36K die in the USA of the different flu strains every year...ANY of them can get out of control and spread.

This one just happened to catch on quickly because the US issues with Mexico are a hot topic right now with the Presidential administration and it came directly from Mexico.

Otherwise, I don't think it would have made the news at all.

I have a friend that works as a Pediatric ER Physician in NYC...she said that they cannot even get to children in the ER that are REALLY sick because the lobbies have been bombarded with parent's rushing every kid that sneezes into the ER wanting to know if they have the Swine Flu...and it makes it difficult to get to kids that are in dire need of assistance.

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Specializes in Too many to list.

Calif. halts prison visits due to H1N1

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/05/04/Calif-halts-prison-visits-due-to-H1N1/UPI-88201241411478/

This is interesting because of its larger implications. If enough staff were to become ill, there would be no one to staff these facilities. I think that they have to take a hard line on this even though only one inmate became ill.

..."The inmate and his cellmate have been isolated," Patino said.

George Kostyrko, spokesman for the California Department of Correction and Rehabilitation, said visitation has been suspended until further notice at the state's 33 adult prisons, six youth facilities and several community-based facilities...

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Specializes in OB, HH, ADMIN, IC, ED, QI.
Calif. halts prison visits due to H1N1

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/05/04/Calif-halts-prison-visits-due-to-H1N1/UPI-88201241411478/

This is interesting because of its larger implications. If enough staff were to become ill, there would be no one to staff these facilities. I think that they have to take a hard line on this even though only one inmate became ill.

Since the American form of the swine flu is so much less severe than the Mexican one, hopefully the jailers will be back to work fairly soon after it hits them. I agree that visitors must be kept away, and especially anyone who visited Mexico or was in contact with somone who did in the past week. I'm thinking of lawyers here, who may be allowed in to confer with clients and could expose prison staff......

There are websites for state and federal employees that probably have many prison officials going to it. If anyone on this thread knows someone who does that, or has other ways of contacting authorities about that, it would be helpful to bring up the possibility of lawyers and/or others working in law firms bring A/H1N1 into the prisons, and ask that they advise their colleagues on those sites of that possibility. While trials can be held with prisoners still in jail/prison, lawyers and their staffs still need to get their signatures and confer with them personally.

Care must be taken to disinfect the pens used and handwashing...... There is a timeline within which legalities have to happen!

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Specializes in Too many to list.

Update from Dr. Margaret Chan of WHO

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2009/influenza_a_h1n1_situation_20090504/en/index.html

Large numbers of people falling ill can be highly disruptive to economies and to the functioning of routine medical services.

As of right now, WHO has received reports of 1003 confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza from 20 countries on four continents.

We do not know how long we have until we move to phase 6, which indicates we are in a pandemic. We are not there yet. The criteria will be met when we see, in one region outside North America, clear evidence of community-level transmission.

Although we face many uncertainties, we do know some things, which I want to share with you now.

Some of this knowledge comes from the behaviour of past pandemics. Other knowledge is specific to the new H1N1 virus and comes from the cases we are seeing in different countries and a look at the virus in the laboratory.

This helps us understand the situation, right now. However, experience during past pandemics warns us that the initial situation can change in many ways, with many, many surprises.

Historically, influenza pandemics have encircled the globe in two, sometimes three, waves. During the previous century, the 1918 pandemic, the most deadly of them all, began in a mild wave and then returned in a far more deadly one. In fact, the first wave was so mild that its significance as a warning signal was missed.

At this point, we have no indication that we are facing a situation similar to that seen in 1918. As I must stress repeatedly, this situation can change, not because we are overestimating or underestimating the situation, but simply because influenza viruses are constantly changing in unpredictable ways.

The only thing that can be said with certainty about influenza viruses is that they are entirely unpredictable. No one can say, right now, how the pandemic will evolve.

This places health officials, at national and international levels, in the difficult position of needing to make far-reaching decisions urgently, yet without the kind of solid scientific back-up we normally like to have.

The greatest disruption of the economy will come from the uncoordinated efforts of the general public to avoid infection. Again, it is incumbent upon us to issue advice and try to calm anxiety in the midst of great scientific uncertainty.

this regard, let me make a strong plea to countries to refrain from introducing measures that are economically and socially disruptive, yet have no scientific justification and bring no clear public health benefit.

If this pandemic begins with a mild wave, this will give countries and industry an opportunity to build up stocks of vaccines, antiviral drugs, and other essential supplies.

But let me be frank. Global manufacturing capacity, though greatly increased, is still not sufficient to produce enough antiviral medication and pandemic vaccines to protect the entire world population in time.

This is the reality. But we can acquire the data that guides the wise and targeted use of these interventions, conserves supplies, and, in the case of antiviral medicines, reduces the risk of drug resistance.

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Specializes in Too many to list.

CDC Briefing for 4 May 2009

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2009/05/may-4th-cdc-briefing.html

FlaMedic has summarized the briefing for today.

The CDC expects to move away from using expensive (and scarce) laboratory resources to confirm cases, and will likely accept `probable' cases in the near future.

A `probable' case is one that has tested positive for Influenza A, but did not test positive for the H1 or H3 influenza virus. Although an H1N1 virus, the new virus isn't picked up by the H1 test and is considered `untyped'.

Thus far, 99% of `probable' cases that have gone on to be tested specifically for the virus, have turned out positive. There are at least 700 `probable' cases in 44 states, that have not been tested.

Even then, it is assumed that a great many people won't see their doctors, or be tested, for the virus. Unless someone is experiencing serious symptoms, they are not being encouraged to seek medical care.

So the actual number of cases around the country really isn't known, nor will it ever be.

The median age among confirmed cases is 16, with cases as young as 3 months and as old as 81 years. Most (62%) are under the age of 18.

Hospitalized cases (now totaling 35 out of the 286 confirmed cases) run roughly the same demographics.

Exactly why this virus appears to be targeting younger victims is unknown. It is possible that older people have been exposed to more H1N1 viruses over the years, and have picked up some level of immunity.

...the isolates being analyzed all seem to be very similar. That makes crafting a vaccine easier. There are also no signs of resistance developing to Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or Zanamivir (Relenza).

Looking forward, the CDC will watch with particular interest how this virus acts in the Southern Hemisphere during our summer months. Influenza generally dies down in the Northern Hemisphere this time of year, but flu season is just getting started in places like Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand.

That could give us an early preview of our 2009-2010 seasonal flu season, and hopefully early warning of any dangerous changes in the virus.

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