Kern County ER Docs C-19

Nurses COVID

Published

It is imperative to watch!

Specializes in Travel, Home Health, Med-Surg.

They dont claim to be ER docs. They did do the research though and there are other researchers who are saying the same thing now that we have more info. Of course they want to get back to work, so do 17million other people. You could also say that there are many politicians and other elites who have a conflict of interest who are making decision. I do agree with a slow reopen with masks etc but some are advocating for 18mo plus quarantine. Dont think that is sustainable.

5 Votes
Specializes in Critical care, tele, Medical-Surgical.

The author of the "Peer review" is Balaji S. Srinivasan. He describes himself as a computer scientist, investor, entrepreneur, and academic. He holds a BS, MS, and PhD in Electrical Engineering and an MS in Chemical Engineering from Stanford. He is also CEO of a bitcoin startup.

https://yourstory.com/2017/01/balaji-s-srinivasan-trump?utm_pageloadtype=scroll

Quote

Peer Review of “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California”

The high reported positive rate in this serosurvey may be explained by the false positive rate of the test and/or by sample recruitment issues.

A new Stanford preprint was released earlier today (PDF, SI). The authors claim that the true population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara County is 50–85X higher than the number of confirmed cases. They base their reasoning on a serosurvey of 3330 participants.

If true, this would actually be good news for society. It would mean that the virus had already widely spread, and thus had a lower fatality rate than previously expected, so the disease wasn’t as severe as we thought. Indeed, the authors claim this explicitly, by putting rough caps on the number of deaths and the infection fatality rate (as distinct from the case fatality rate)....

... However, I am skeptical of this result for several reasons... (The reasons are listed. The accompanying data and discussions are not)

  1. The False Positive Rate of the Test is High
  2. Were Participants Enriched for COVID-19 Cases? 2A. Exposed people may have signed up for the study to get tested. 2B. Exposed people may have recruited other exposed people for the study. 2C. How plausible are these enrichment mechanisms?
  3. The Study Would Imply Faster Spread than Past Pandemics.

Conclusion: To summarize, there are three broad reasons why I am skeptical of this study’s claims.

  1. First, the false positive rate may be high enough to generate many of the reported 50 positives out of 3330 samples. Or put another way, we don’t have high confidence in a very low false positive rate, as the 95% confidence interval for the false positive rate is roughly [0%, >1.2%] and the reported positive rate is ~1.5%.

  2. Second, the study may have enriched for COVID-19 cases by (a) serving as a test-of-last-resort for symptomatic or exposed people who couldn’t get tests elsewhere in the Bay Area and/or (b) allowing said people to recruit other COVID-19 cases to the study in private groups. These mechanisms could also account for a significant chunk of the 50 positives in 3330 samples.

  3. Third, in order to produce the visible excess mortality numbers that COVID-19 is already piling up in Europe and NYC, the study would imply that COVID-19 is spreading significantly faster than past pandemics like H1N1, many of which had multiple waves and took more than a year to run their course.

https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

2 Votes
Specializes in ER.

Interesting. When I was doing my covid-19 crisis RN job in an ER, we were doing a quick swab on anybody who got admitted. We were told and negative was definitely a negative, but a positive had a 30% chance a being false.

We were doing this quick swabs in order to help bed placement.

5 Votes
13 minutes ago, Emergent said:

Interesting. When I was doing my covid-19 crisis RN job in an ER, we were doing a quick swab on anybody who got admitted. We were told and negative was definitely a negative, but a positive had a 30% chance a being false.

We were doing this quick swabs in order to help bed placement.

Those were PCR right? There is a margin of error with those.

1 Votes
Specializes in ER.

I'm not sure what the name of them was. They just rolled it out while I was there. Every day brought a new change. It was a good experience over in western Washington.

I think the information is totally in flux about this virus. I'm now home just self isolating and planting my garden. That's why I'm posting so much on this site.

4 Votes
11 minutes ago, Emergent said:

I'm not sure what the name of them was. They just rolled it out while I was there. Every day brought a new change. It was a good experience over in western Washington.

I think the information is totally in flux about this virus. I'm now home just self isolating and planting my garden. That's why I'm posting so much on this site.

Sorry, I was asking if they are polymerase chain reaction based. They can finicky sometimes and give false positives or negatives. There has to be large numbers of tests and to account for a margin of error with those.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0169774

So many professionals say that it is too early to come to conclusions because of the lack of data. And yet there are people in this forum that say we are wrong. It's just plain silly IMHO.

The findings of the professionals presented in this thread should not be ignored to save ego.

3 Votes
Specializes in ER.
11 minutes ago, juniper222 said:

Sorry, I was asking if they are polymerase chain reaction based. They can finicky sometimes and give false positives or negatives. There has to be large numbers of tests and to account for a margin of error with those.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0169774

So many professionals say that it is too early to come to conclusions because of the lack of data. And yet there are people in this forum that say we are wrong. It's just plain silly IMHO.

The findings of the professionals presented in this thread should not be ignored to save ego.

The important thing is, the Governor has said we can go fishing now. That fishing ban pissed me off more than anything. What kind of fool doesn't know that fishermen are the ultimate social distancers?

I mean, way to sow paranoia in the public. Can we bring Common Sense back into the nation?

Sorry to get off topic.

6 Votes
Specializes in ER.

And, do you know that they said that they would allow boating but no fishing. That's because of all the rich people in western Washington who have their boats on a dock. But ordinary people like me have to launch a boat from a boat launch.

My cousin over in western Washington posted a picture of all the yachts on Puget Sound. I'll bet the governor has a yacht. But they wouldn't allow fishing. Such a dangerous thing to do to fish.

5 Votes
Specializes in Critical care, tele, Medical-Surgical.

COVID-19 Antibody Assays Scrutinized for Accuracy by UCSF, UC Berkeley Researchers

A project launched by UC San Francisco and UC Berkeley scientists to evaluate some of the more than 120 available antibody test kits – only a handful of which have received Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration – should provide the test performance data these doctors and public health officials need to decide which tests to employ and to understand how reliable the results are...

Antibody Tests Complement PCR Diagnostics

Current diagnostic tests, such as the standard RT-PCR (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) test conducted on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, can tell doctors if someone is currently infected, but antibody tests might be able identify people who have been exposed to the virus even weeks after an initial infection. Antibody tests could be particularly useful for identifying those who have been infected but never showed symptoms...

... When infected by a virus like SARS-CoV-2, the cause of COVID-19, the body initially produces antibodies known as IgM (immunoglobulin-M), in an attempt to neutralize the virus. Later, as the body’s adaptive immune system revs up, IgM levels go down and the body ramps up production of IgG, which more specifically targets the viral invader...

... Antibody tests, also called serology tests because they are conducted on blood samples, such as from a finger prick, can assess levels of both IgM and IgG...

... Antibody tests, also called serology tests because they are conducted on blood samples, such as from a finger prick, can assess levels of both IgM and IgG, and the relative levels could indicate whether a person is in the early or late stages of infection.

As such, antibody tests can complement the information from PCR tests, since even these relatively accurate tests can give false negatives. Antibody tests may eventually provide clues to how long immunity lasts, and what levels of antibodies are truly protective from subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infections. It remains unclear whether infection with SARS-CoV-2 produces long-lasting immunity...

“One of the cornerstones of lab medicine is that a new test is compared to a definitive reference or gold standard,” Marson said. “We do not have a gold standard yet for COVID-19 serology testing, so we are amassing data on a standardized set of blood samples and really looking at how each of these tests performs in relationship to all the others.”

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/417276/testing-tests-covid-19-antibody-assays-scrutinized-accuracy-ucsf-uc-berkeley

3 Votes
39 minutes ago, Emergent said:

And, do you know that they said that they would allow boating but no fishing. That's because of all the rich people in western Washington who have their boats on a dock. But ordinary people like me have to launch a boat from a boat launch.

My cousin over in western Washington posted a picture of all the yachts on Puget Sound. I'll bet the governor has a yacht. But they wouldn't allow fishing. Such a dangerous thing to do to fish.

I remember one year the mayor of Seattle didn't want to put salt on the roads during a rare icy road condition because he didn't want salt to get into the ocean. He was not the mayor next election.

I think we need to balance caution with reason. Hunting down people who are outside self isolating and arresting them only stirs the fires of dissent. In my area COVID is almost non existent (347 cases/ 20 deaths) out of a population of 219,000. The virus has been here for months and nothing has gotten any worse. In areas like mine a controlled reopening is in order. In hot zones obviously they need to maintain strict conditions.

I hardly think one person fishing by themselves is a threat to humanity.

4 Votes
Specializes in NICU, PICU, Transport, L&D, Hospice.

Combat fishing

https://images.app.goo.gl/NienpXxZgipsAYpK7

I would say Alaska is different, but it's a thing in new England too

1 Votes

Nice video!

Loved the Maverick and Goose tag team! ?

“let’s follow the science”?

“decreasing our immune systems will cause disease spikes with furloughed doctors and nurses” (louder for the people in the back!)

3 Votes
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