Is nursing shortage a myth?

[Angitia]

hello all,

i'm a nursing student. i've been alerted by a few articles, blogs, and forums from which it appears that new grads rns have trouble finding jobs. since i only want to trust reliable sources

i've been doing research all night, and here is information (shocking, unless i'm counting wrong) i've found.

this is from ncsbn satistics, which can be found on their website: https://www.ncsbn.org/1236.htm

statistics by year:

2000

there were 3,103,981 active rn licences in the us

there were 151,982 total new rns(this includes rns getting a license by endorsement,

so let's say about half are new grads)

2005

3,338,888 active licenses in the us

87,864 by nclex (new grads)

77,011 by endorsement

and in 2008 (the most recent year posted):

there were 3,733,299 active licenses

94,321by nclex (new grads)

81,834 by endorsement

now, the bureau of labor statistics at http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos083.htm newest 2010-11 edition states that

"registered nurses (rns) constitute the largest healthcare occupation, with 2.6 million jobs".

with active license being active for 2 years in most states, we can safely assume that an active license means a person who intends to get a job as a nurse. let's do some math here.

there were 3,733,299 active rn licenses in the us in 2008, and 2,618,700 jobs.

so, there were 1,114,599 nurses without jobs.

this number will be higher in 2018, since about 90,000 persons pass nclex each year.

so in 8 years years there will be 4.5 million licensed rns, and how many jobs, according to bls projections? --

3,200,200

now, i'm a nursing student, i've pretty much put my life on the line to get this degree,

so obviously i don't want to scare myself, or anybody else.

am i reading these numbers incorrectly? are they suggesting that over 1 million people got or renewed their licenses and then

within two years married some rich guys and decided not to work, or that over 1 million people were not looking for work?

or have we been duped? into thinking that there's shortage and high demand, and we are guaranteed to find jobs?

who's going to be responsible for this if this is true and there is a shortage of nursing jobs, not nurses? and if this is true,

what are we going to do about it? demonstrations, protests? or quietly complaining on online forums?

please, share your opinions. i'm extremely concerned about this. i hope that i just don't know how these things are calculated

and my suspicions are all wrong. thank you

[Nurse SMS, MSN, RN]

It is a myth. There is no nursing shortage.

As far as who is "responsible" for it, I guess I do not know what you mean. Every individual is responsible for their own future, well being and life outcomes. If someone didn't do their research before embarking on this journey, that impetus is on them, not the media, who loves to report on this. One does not have to look very far to see how many new grads are going without jobs.

The best we can do is re-educate people. For me, that is on a person to person level when the subject comes up. I have no interest in staging a protest.

[TheCommuter, BSN, RN]

Contrary to popular belief, nursing is NOT recession-proof. We're in the midst of a sluggish economy right now, and nursing has been hit hard in many parts of the country. Many hospitals and other types of healthcare facilities prefer experienced nurses over new grads because the experienced nurse can be up and running independently within a week, whereas the new grad needs lengthy orientation and very expensive preceptorship. Healthcare facilities are businesses who count money down to the last penny, and they view experienced nurses as more cost-effective than the new grad with no nursing work experience.

During recessions, patients avoid having elective surgeries because they are fearful of taking the time off work that is needed for full recovery, which results in low hospital census. When hospital census is low, less nurses are needed to keep the floor running. Therefore, less nurses are hired, and the ones who are employed often deal with canceled shifts and smaller paychecks.

More people become unemployed during these rough times and, as a result, lose their health insurance. Uninsured people are definitely not inclined to seek healthcare unless it is an absolute emergency. In addition, medical bills incurred by uninsured patients tend to go unpaid, which means less money for healthcare facilities. Some hospitals have closed or scaled back due to providing care to the uninsured at a financial loss.

While it is an accurate statement that nursing jobs can never be outsourced, always remember that nurses can be "insourced" by recruiting foreign nurses to work at US hospitals. These nurses are less likely to gripe about working evenings, nights, weekends, and holidays because they are earning more money in America than they ever would in their country of origin.

Masses of part-time nurses accept full-time positions during recessions to keep their households afloat when a breadwinner spouse loses his/her job without notice. Many retired nurses are reactivating their nursing licenses and returning to the nursing workforce due to the higher cost of living combined with the effects of depleted retirement funds.

This is just some food for thought. While this chain of events might not apply to your region, it is certainly unfolding before our eyes in many parts of the U.S.

[ChristopherB, BSN, RN]

I agree with most of what TheCommuter said above. One thing not mentioned was how many nurses are goign to be at retirement age int he next 10 years. The oldest baby boomers are areound age 65 now. Soem many delay retirement a few eyars because of the economy, but the last time I saw the statistics, a very large number of nurses were age 45 to 65. You will shoudl have a good future as a nurse because in a few years, the demand should go up.

[nurse15dc]

Your suspicions and logic is spot on. There should be more blogs and articles like yours in the media to get the word out.. But like the others said we are responsible for picking careers that have enough jobs available. Protesting and demonstrating the lack of jobs in any field is silly as we are the ones who choose our educational and vocational path.

I DO NOT believe many baby boomers will be able to retire. My parents generation was probably the last generation that have the retirement money and government perks to afford to stop working. (For boomers SS and medicare will have to be cut and retirement age will have to go up.)

[Katie5]

A Myth.

[beewink]

Definitely a myth. And while I do agree that we are responsible for planning ahead and choosing our career path, it amazes me that there are still articles and news stories perpetuating this myth. It is confusing for people who are trying to sift through the muck to find the truth. Also, there are many rogue nursing schools popping up out of seemingly nowhere who claim that nursing is a great 'recession proof' profession. There are ads all the time in my local newspaper. How is one to choose what to do at all? It's hard to predict the future, and at this point we have no concrete idea which professions will end up hiring and which won't.

One other thing - I see now (hindsight always being 20/20) that there was never really a nursing shortage in the first place. I truly believe it was a shortage of folks who didn't want to work under conditions they are now forced to go back to.

[gerry79]

The is no nursing shortage. In the past there may have been many licensed nurses not working, but when the economy tanked many per diem, retired, and part time nurses went back full time. So the appearance of abundant nursing jobs was actually a mirage. Also nursing school are cropping up everywhere pumping out new grads at an alarming rate. In my area there are about 6 major hospitals within a 10 mile radius and 15 nursing programs pumping out new grads twice a year (Dec and May). There is no way the hospitals in my area can support the many new grads that these schools are pumping out. So every six months there are more and more unemployed nurses seeking work.

And as for baby boomers retiring, I don't see it. How, when most took enormous hits on their retirement investments within the past 3 years. It will take at least double or maybe triple that time to recover sufficiently enough to retire.

Nursing is not recession proof, and with the glut of nurses flooding the market the profession may be over saturated for years to come.

G

[PMFB-RN, RN]

There is no shortage of nurses. There haven't been more than local, temporary shortages in the 15 years I have been a nurse.

You are responsible for your choices and decisions. Where I about to "put my life on the line" to do something I would do my homework ahead of time.

[Otessa, BSN, RN]

There is only a shortage in very rare areas. Inner city, very rural, etc.....

[KarmaWiseRaven]

I think i was at my Dr's office and in this magazine and there was an article about the nursing shortage and how some states like Calif have stopped using foreign nurses. They had all these math stats things and what stuck me was that i didn't know that over 4000 nurses leave the nursing field a day. Most of them who leave keep their license current and they said something about by 2016 there will be over 1 million new jobs in the nursing field to fill and the schools can't keep up with the demand. And something about not enough nurse teachers. The teachers make more money out in the field then teaching a class. This is what i read.

It was a very interesting article. These are my thoughts use them as you wish Please make a comment I'd love to touch on this more.

[TheCommuter, BSN, RN]

there is only a shortage in very rare areas. inner city, very rural, etc.....

in other words, the nursing shortage is concentrated in the very places where many people wouldn't want to live or work.