Is nursing shortage a myth?

[Angitia]

hello all,

i'm a nursing student. i've been alerted by a few articles, blogs, and forums from which it appears that new grads rns have trouble finding jobs. since i only want to trust reliable sources

i've been doing research all night, and here is information (shocking, unless i'm counting wrong) i've found.

this is from ncsbn satistics, which can be found on their website: https://www.ncsbn.org/1236.htm

statistics by year:

2000

there were 3,103,981 active rn licences in the us

there were 151,982 total new rns(this includes rns getting a license by endorsement,

so let's say about half are new grads)

2005

3,338,888 active licenses in the us

87,864 by nclex (new grads)

77,011 by endorsement

and in 2008 (the most recent year posted):

there were 3,733,299 active licenses

94,321by nclex (new grads)

81,834 by endorsement

now, the bureau of labor statistics at http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos083.htm newest 2010-11 edition states that

"registered nurses (rns) constitute the largest healthcare occupation, with 2.6 million jobs".

with active license being active for 2 years in most states, we can safely assume that an active license means a person who intends to get a job as a nurse. let's do some math here.

there were 3,733,299 active rn licenses in the us in 2008, and 2,618,700 jobs.

so, there were 1,114,599 nurses without jobs.

this number will be higher in 2018, since about 90,000 persons pass nclex each year.

so in 8 years years there will be 4.5 million licensed rns, and how many jobs, according to bls projections? --

3,200,200

now, i'm a nursing student, i've pretty much put my life on the line to get this degree,

so obviously i don't want to scare myself, or anybody else.

am i reading these numbers incorrectly? are they suggesting that over 1 million people got or renewed their licenses and then

within two years married some rich guys and decided not to work, or that over 1 million people were not looking for work?

or have we been duped? into thinking that there's shortage and high demand, and we are guaranteed to find jobs?

who's going to be responsible for this if this is true and there is a shortage of nursing jobs, not nurses? and if this is true,

what are we going to do about it? demonstrations, protests? or quietly complaining on online forums?

please, share your opinions. i'm extremely concerned about this. i hope that i just don't know how these things are calculated

and my suspicions are all wrong. thank you

[PMFB-RN, RN]

I think i was at my Dr's office and in this magazine and there was an article about the nursing shortage and how some states like Calif have stopped using foreign nurses. They had all these math stats things and what stuck me was that i didn't know that over 4000 nurses leave the nursing field a day. Most of them who leave keep their license current and they said something about by 2016 there will be over 1 million new jobs in the nursing field to fill and the schools can't keep up with the demand. And something about not enough nurse teachers. The teachers make more money out in the field then teaching a class. This is what i read.

It was a very interesting article. These are my thoughts use them as you wish Please make a comment I'd love to touch on this more.

*** In the 15 yeas I have been paying attention to this issue there has never been more than a local a shortage of nurses. What there has been is a shortage of nurses willing to work under the current pay and working conditions. When the economy is good and there are lots of job many nurses will leave for better pay and conditions in other fields. When there are fewer jobs, like now lots of nurses return to nursing, plus many part timers become full timers and older nurses put off retirement. When that happens new grads, being very expensive to train since nursing schools are no longer turning out ready to work nurses, have a hard time finding jobs. We have seen this exact same thing happen before. When the economy improves and nurses have the opportunity to get better paying job with better working conditions many will leave the bedside and there will be a "shortage".

Also much of the "shortage" propaganda is put out by employers wanting to pressure congress into allowing more nurses from other countries in.

The California prison system is the perfect example. Before they were taken over by the court they had a huge shortage of nurses. The court took them over and looked at how much they where spending on agency nurses and overtime and simply raises the wages of nurses. Now that their nurses are paid around 100K a year they have no shortage. I don't know but I am guessing that San Quinton is not a nice place to work, that they can hire enough nurses to work there if they pay them enough demonstrates that it is the low pay relative to the amount of work and responsibility that causes so-called shortages.

[DeLana_RN, BSN, RN]

And as for baby boomers retiring, I don't see it. How, when most took enormous hits on their retirement investments within the past 3 years. It will take at least double or maybe triple that time to recover sufficiently enough to retire.G

As for our generation being able to retire: The older ones (those born 1946-54), definitely; in fact, those who can afford it are doing it as soon as possible. As for the younger group (1955-64), not so much. Congress is now threatening to raise the retirement age to 69 (!) and decrease social security benefits for those 55 and younger today. (I hope the voters will remember this, but I digress.)

On the other hand, except for those in admin - who may have better pay and benefits and therefore be able to retire - nurses in pt care are unlikely to be able to work 'till they're 80. So many will have to retire, whether they want to or not, due to health reasons.

It's a mixed future, but I think the youngest generation of nurses and students - certainly those under 30 - will be all right in the long term.

As for the rest of us... who knows.

DeLana

[llg, PhD, RN]

I wouldn't call it a myth -- but I would say that the issues are VERY complex and not well understood by most people. That failure to understand the complex issues has led to a lot of exaggeration and mis-information out there.

Not every active license corresponds to a nurse wanting full time employment. People usually maintain their licenses when they take time out of their career to have kids and for a few years after they retire. People also need licenses even if they are working only part time. So, to draw any conclusions by comparing the number of active licenses to the number of jobs is not a good idea.

Most experts who have looked at all the data believe that we are in a temporary glut of nurses in the midst of a long-term shortage. The temporary glut was caused by the Great Recession that is driving (1) more people into nursing looking for more secure employment than their previous careers, (2) formerly part time nurses switching to full time to compensate for decreased spousal income, (3) formerly stay-at-home moms now working for the same reason, and (4) baby boomers delaying retirement.

While those factors causing the current glut are not going to disappear over night, they will ease eventually and leaders who must do long-term planning need to consider that in their plans. It would be irresponsible to act as if the current recession and glut will last forever. Most notably, baby boomers may delay retirement -- but they will eventually retire, and most will cut down to part time employment for a while before they do. That will open up many positions. In addition, some of the "cra***" schools that opened up to pump out more new grads to make a quick profit will eventually close or reduce in size as they find fewer customers willing to pay their outrageous prices for a lousy education. etc. etc. etc.

Bottom line: There is no shortage at the moment, but long-term prospects for nursing careers remains good. So, if you are becoming a nurse because you are just looking for a guaranteed job with a middle-class income ... now is NOT the time to do that. However, if you truly have a passion for nursing and are willing to overcome some challenges to be one, then you should go for it because the long-term prospects are good.

[Penguin67]

FYI...not everyone with an active license is working, or even looking for work. For example, I am licensed in the state that I currently work in, but I have maintained licensure in the state where I was originally licensed when I graduated two decades ago. I have used it occasionally to work as a camp nurse over the years in that state, but haven't practiced in that state for almost 8 years now.

Also, there is the issue of traveler nurses, who might have 3-6 month contracts, and who obtain licenses for each state that they work in. If they do 3 month contracts, sometimes that is the minimum time for a contract, that nurse could potentially have 4 different state licenses per year and potentially 8 licenses in a two year licensing period.

There are also retired nurses who maintain licenses because it is often simpler, cheaper and frankly less red tape to do that than to have an inactive license that they may later want to reinstate.

The OP raised some good points, but to simply calculate the numbers of active nurses in the states based upon current number of active licenses can result in a misleading number without fleshing out some of the above confounding factors, and I suspect there could possible be more than I mentioned above.

[linguine]

If there is nursing shortage or if there will eventually be one, where is the shortage? bedside? NP? educators? researchers?

Many top hospitals are placing new grads in a nurse residency program to train new grads thoroughly to remain "leaders at the bedside." However, the recruiter who said this has mentioned that a number of residents who finish the year long programs will advance to advanced practice roles, such as NP.

During clinical, the majority of nurses who I shadowed were working on the floor and while attending school for an advanced practice role in another field. If the majority of nurses working now eventually retire and meanwhile, many floor nurses go on to advanced practice roles, who will be at the bed side? If these factors occur simultaneously. There may be a large shortage of long term bed-side nurses eventually.

A simultaneously shortage and a glut is possible under the umbrella of roles that exist in nursing.

[Barbara Hessinger]

Couple things come to mind.

First, there could be quite a pressure on hourly pay caused by the current over-saturation.

And why does the media insist on "educating" the public about this so called nursing shortage? Is this to justify the less than desired care delivered in some facilities in order to make sure there is enough profit at the bottom line???

In other words what's up with those ridiculous ratios in some hospitals and LTC???

Does it plain and simple come down to the greed of some big corporations which have the media in their pocket? Or is this too far fetched??

[GooeyRN, ADN, BSN, CNA, LPN, RN]

There is no shortage. The baby boomers will not be retiring for a long time. Many who were retired came back, and will be back for a long time. Many have a good 10-20 years left in them. Many are in good health with very little retirement saved and recently lost their houses, so they will not be going anywhere any time soon. I am an RN with 7 years experience, and I was laid off in May. I live in a rural area. It was hard to find nurses to work here a few years ago, but now there aren't even jobs here. There is no shortage, yet schools keep pumping out hundreds of new nurses every year. Hospitals are closing floors/units b/c of less patients coming in for care. A lot of people are out of jobs/no health insurance so they only come in when something is ultra serious. Less money then equals less money for staffing, so there are staffing cuts down to bare bones. Ancillary staff are getting the ax. There are some positions available in the near by smaller cities, but they aren't the "good" jobs. They are per-diem, part-time, rotating shifts, undesirable units, etc. A new grad doesn't walk into a full-time position now, not even on night shift or evening shift.

[brotherbear]

...from what I hear there was once a legitimate shortage. However there was also a huge exodus of people leaving other professions (in the tech field for instance) to take on nursing jobs. Basic economics dictates of course that at some point in the world of supply/demand their will be an "equilibrium". Perhaps that's what's happening now.

[Angitia]

There are some valid points here in the above posts. That the number of active licenses is not equal to the actual number of RNs working -that's helpful to know.

I have another question.

Is nursing experience the only factor necessary to get a job?

What about things like professional demeanor and behavior, physical shape, eloquence, attitude, making a good impression? Is a nurse who posseses the highest qualities more likely to get a job, or to the contrary ? If she/he is perceived as someone who is likely to succeed, can professional jelousy on the part of the hiring person play a role?

[blondy2061h, MSN, RN]

I would say many hospitals need more nurses, but aren't willing to hire due to the economy. One of my family members was recently in the hospital, and his nurse was taking care of 14 other patients on nights. It was a telemetry unit. I asked my family member if anyone listening to his heart or lungs the whole time he was there. "No, they said they didn't need to because I was on telemetry." What?!?! I think if every unit were safely staffed we wouldn't have enough nurses that wanted to work in nursing.

[mspontiac]

A new grad doesn't walk into a full-time position now, not even on night shift or evening shift.

Then why have I been offered a position and signed a contract for a level 1 trauma center (Magnet status as well) hospital, when I don't graduate until May? My husband also works there as an RN...they treat their staff wonderfully and pay very well. They are also advertising on the local radio station for RNs, due to the students graduating in December who will be searching for jobs. Frankly, I have not seen this "glut" that is mentioned here in my area.

[blondy2061h, MSN, RN]

Then why have I been offered a position and signed a contract for a level 1 trauma center (Magnet status as well) hospital, when I don't graduate until May? My husband also works there as an RN...they treat their staff wonderfully and pay very well. They are also advertising on the local radio station for RNs, due to the students graduating in December who will be searching for jobs. Frankly, I have not seen this "glut" that is mentioned here in my area.

My unit hires new grads every year as well, and some of them even get days. I haven't heard about too many new grads really having a hard time finding jobs here, either.