Addressing the Predicted Nursing Shortage

There is a predicted nursing shortage coming as the baby boomers continue to retire in droves. Nurses General Nursing Article

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allnurses.com staffers were recently fortunate to interview Audrey Wirth, MSN, RN-BC, CVRN-BC adjunct clinical instructor at Aurora University's School of Nursing and Allied Health. She has published in the Journal of Nursing Administration and Nursing.com as well as a presentation training the trainer for end of life care. We discussed the predicted nursing shortage.

According to the latest (2017) HRSA report regarding supply and demand:

- Looking at each state's 2030 RN supply minus its 2030 demand reveals both shortages and surpluses in RN workforce in 2030 across the United States. Projected differences between each state's 2030 supply and demand range from a shortage of 44,500 FTEs in California to a surplus of 53,700 FTEs in Florida.

- If the current level of health care is maintained, seven states are projected to have a shortage of RNs in 2030, with four of these states having a deficit of 10,000 or more FTEs, including California (44,500 FTEs), Texas (15,900 FTEs), New Jersey (11,400 FTEs) and South Carolina (10,400 FTEs).

- States projected to experience the largest excess supply compared to demand in 2030 include Florida (53,700 FTEs) followed by Ohio (49,100 FTEs), Virginia (22,700 FTEs) and New York (18,200 FTEs).

With the ever increasing costs of college, how would you convince a young just graduated from high school person to commit to a nursing education?

A college education is an investment. It is an investment in oneself and in one's future. A simple ROI (return on investment) conversation would quickly silence this concern. With diligent financial planning and discipline post-graduation, student loans can be paid off rather quickly. I would also discourage a student's parents from paying for their child's education, as this can delay their own retirement. An education can be financed, a retirement cannot.

As for committing to nursing specifically, first of all, I believe nursing is a calling. Nursing is not a profession for everyone. The student must show true and compassionate interest in the field. Once this was evident, I would vouch for what a career in nursing has to offer. Some benefits include a very flexible schedule, opportunity to pick up extra shifts for extra money, and later on the possibility of advancing into the business and management side of nursing if desired. There are also nursing positions such as school nurses, which would match schedules with the nurse's children, allowing for optimal family balance and avoidance of childcare costs. Furthermore, there are even work at home opportunities in nursing that may prove ideal for some individuals throughout various stages in their life.

Above all, the best reason to go into nursing is making a difference for your patients and having an impact on their health, comfort, and well-being. The reward of helping fellow humans through some of the best and worst times in their life is one that cannot be quantified. Personally, I choose to continue having a bedside presence while teaching nursing for this very reason. The positive humanistic reward is immensely indescribable.

AN recently reported on this topic in our Student Survey: Demographics

As the nursing population ages, many nurses are not BSN-prepared. What do you see as incentives that hospitals could offer in order to "grow their own" BSN nurses?

In my experience, there are two main barriers for ADN (Associate Degree in Nursing) nurses to continue on to their BSN, the first being the cost of the degree and the second being the time to complete it. Many nurses have home life commitments such as children, spouses, adult parents they may be caring for etc. Hospitals can offer a salary incentive to their nurses if they hold a BSN degree or higher. They can also offer tuition reimbursement to their employees predicated on their completion of the degree and a defined employment retention period. If hospitals considered not only paying for the degree but offering to pay the nurses their hourly wage for their classroom time, they would likely have more interest. If the degree was integrated into their nurses' normal weekly schedule, then there would be virtually no reason for the nurses not to complete the degree. It could fall under an education budget.

Above all, hospitals need to convey the reasoning and rationale for encouraging nurses to continue their education. The WIIFM (What's In It For Me) factor of a BSN degree could include gaining knowledge of research article interpretation and leading, disseminating, and integrating evidence-based best practices to their area of nursing. Another would be acquiring knowledge specific to nursing leadership and management. Some nurses may disclose having no interest in climbing the management ladder, however, understanding the avenues of leadership and the organizational structure is still important if one wants to influence change.

If nurses want to have an impact, they need to understand the processes behind the scenes of a hospital. For example, if a unit manager brings a change to his/her staff, part of gaining the staff's buy-in is helping them to understand why the change is being brought upon them. If a nurse has an understanding of how a nursing unit is managed, funded, staffed, etc. then the nurse will likely see the proposed change as making sense and will have a true understanding of the "Why".

Along that same line, what steps could hospitals take to engage and retain older, more experienced nurses that perhaps would like to continue working bedside but on a part-time or PRN basis?

Bedside nursing can be quite demanding, both physically and mentally. Oftentimes, aging nurses may struggle to meet the physical demands of bedside nursing. Offering shorter and less frequent shifts may help with this. Developing clinical nurse specialist roles where senior nurses can mentor and guide younger nurses through chart reviews, bedside assessments, etc. is a way to keep them and their expertise at the bedside, but also pass it along to novice nurses.

With the ever-increasing physician shortage, NPs are becoming the primary care provider in many areas, especially the rural ones. How would you propose to keep BSN nurses at the bedside versus continuing their education?

In all honesty, I would never encourage any nurse not to advance their education. I believe this would be shooting our profession in the foot. Mid-level providers are an excellent avenue for healthcare and when partnered with a physician practice they have proven to have better patient outcomes. Instead, I would encourage young nurses to pursue their BSN degree from the start of their college education. Many nursing schools are turning away qualified applicants because they do not have the faculty capacity to teach more students. So, I believe we should be looking here, at the potential student nurse population to grow the number of bedside nurses. If we want to grow the population of nurses, we need more nursing faculty.

What are you seeing in your area? Is it easy to get a nursing job? Difficult? Have you thought about furthering your education?

I'm not from Canada. I've never sexually assaulted anybody nor in anyway do I condone or excuse it in any form. However, if a person invests many thousands of dollars and years of time studying to gain a position in a profession and does not look at the economic return on that investment given their particular situation (more backyard economics) shame on them.

The problem you're overlooking or refusing to acknowledge is that economic and employment trends change quickly, often while students are in school or (for some) promptly after graduation. We're still weathering the effects of the Great Recession. Holding nurses accountable for the penny pinching actions (which have had disastrous ramifications for health care and other industries) of bean counters is not logical, rational. As tax paying citizens, we're entitled to expect something in return from our government, and employment should not be a fleeting concession. It's sad to see such a huge population of educated professionals not able to enjoy the same economic/employment opportunities as their parents, grand parents... how can you blame people for having the rug pull out from under them? A growing population of the "working poor" didn't chose to be assigned to lifelong social and economic inequality. Where is your compassion, empathy? You're a nurse? Your sentiments infer that nurses should be held accountable for the negative effects of wayward government decision-making. Amazing :rolleyes:

People certainly should be responsible and research their chosen professions prior to making the investment and sacrifice. Nonetheless, we're talking about people who have acquired education in sensible fields with applicable trade skills (nursing, engineering, etc). Nothing against the liberal arts but, for previous generations, it used to be rational thinking and a rational expectation that a nursing major would fare better in the job market than say someone with a BFA in dance, painting, sculpture, etc. Nowadays, I've seen people from varied educational backgrounds working in clerical/customer service positions to make ends meet.

"My metaphor is an escalator going down faster than young people can run up, no matter what adaptations they make," said Paul Kershaw, a University of British Columbia professor and generational equity expert who founded the group Generation Squeeze. "They go to school longer, they work longer hours, they delay starting families. But those adaptations aren't enough to sprint up faster than the escalator is going down."

Companies exploit this generation or workers, and pushing nurses toward potential poverty. Unlike previous generations, people entering or surviving the current job market since the recession "ended" are diving without a parachute, and burdened by the bad decisions that have created the rise of the so-called "gig" economy.

Thanks for all the comments on here about getting a BSN degree. I am 61 years old looking to retire next year. I have a ADN degree and have been looking at getting my BSN just so I will be able to work part time to keep my license. I have spoken with my DON about should I get the BSN would it increase my pay and she said No. I do encourage young people to get their BSN just so they will have more options. One thing I have noticed at the place I am employed is the new BSN nurses that have been hired and trained by the older nurses are doing classes on line, letting the company pay for them so they can leave for a better position elsewhere. I kind of find it ironic. Since there is no way to move up or obtain another position than what they are hired for. I may have to work in long term care or work for an insurance company and that's okay. I have a lot of experience to offer so hopefully someone will need us older ADN nurses at least part time.

Yep. That's a shame if macro-economics go south then there is not much an individual can do except go for the ride. However, once again I'm not from Canada and can't really address that. I can only comment on what I've seen and experienced in my job market. Here you shouldn't break the bank to be a nurse. If you do you've made a poor economic decision unless you have lots of time to recoup your investment & even then it's not necessary. I'm far from the only nurse to have climbed an educational ladder using an employer's financing and not jumping into a deep financial hole to get a job that graduates from a Community College can qualify for in about a year for less than the cost of a descent used car.

Specializes in Pediatrics Retired.
I agree pretty much with everything that has been posted. I'm retired now, but the "nursing shortage" was predicted many years ago when I was in school.

So was the BSN-only. And my thoughts about that, after 30 years in the field, 28 active, are this...I trained an awful lot of brand new BSNs, and they mostly came out with heads stuffed full of book learning and not one clue about how to take care of a patient. Oh, I'm sure they could write a beautiful care plan, much better than mine from my ADN school days (I remember mine, they were full of red ink when I got them back!), but when it came to putting that into practice, most of them hadn't the first idea where to start. The exceptions were those who had worked as CNAs, and those were darn few. They had watched and listened, and they knew nursing from the ground up. Now when young people ask me about nursing, I tell them to try CNA work first, or maybe even EMT if they're really gung ho, and they if they still like it, go on and get their ADN and *then* work while they get a BSN, maybe even online. A BSN is a nice thing to have for advancement, but not necessarily a good thing to have for a starter. You don't learn how to take care of patients in a BSN program. You learn how to take care of theory. The last place I worked had a good partnership with the state university in town so that your work counted as clinicals. They also reimbursed you if you got a B or better in your courses from anywhere.

As far as a shortage, maybe if our workplaces treated us better, there wouldn't be one. I saw so much when I was a traveler that really made me sick and disgusted with the whole business. I could write a book about it, and maybe I will someday :) What I will say is that the best place I worked had a CNO who had literally risen through the ranks....started out as an RT, went to nursing school and worked the floors, eventually got the advanced degree and went into management and rose to CNO. The nursing culture was completely different at that hospital, and I believe it was *because* they had a CNP who knew what it was all about, from the bottom up. Would that it were like that elsewhere.

Amen!!

Specializes in Pediatrics Retired.
Yep. That's a shame if macro-economics go south then there is not much an individual can do except go for the ride. However, once again I'm not from Canada and can't really address that. I can only comment on what I've seen and experienced in my job market. Here you shouldn't break the bank to be a nurse. If you do you've made a poor economic decision unless you have lots of time to recoup your investment & even then it's not necessary. I'm far from the only nurse to have climbed an educational ladder using an employer's financing and not jumping into a deep financial hole to get a job that graduates from a Community College can qualify for in about a year for less than the cost of a descent used car.

Here in South Texas we have several huge wind turbine farms; also in northwest Texas. In that regard we have a state junior college campus in this area that teaches the profession. An associate degree in the field will land you a base salary job of about 60K and your certification lends you to be qualified to work in many related fields. Just sayin.

What does EBP say is the best anti-emetic for the inevitable nausea that comes when one reads about "the nursing shortage"?

What happened to your face?

Specializes in school nurse.
What happened to your face?

I o.d'ed on Nursing Theories and it exploded...

Specializes in Pediatrics Retired.
What happened to your face?

I o.d'ed on Nursing Theories and it exploded...

I was wondering about that too...

hmm,

The wind-mill guys are smart enough to do an economic analysis of whether an investment in education to procure gainful employment is worth it? Good for them. I think one of the nurses commenting above hit on the point very well. Nurses who think they have a "calling" are willing to listen to nonsense about poor pay and being expected to finance their own training and often get to settle for low pay & high debt. Nurses who look at this profession as primarily a means to earn a living while doing something good for their fellow man take economics into account. I think many of us keenly aware of the economics are on our second career. The nurse above broke it down in terms of nursing being a woman dominated profession. I don't think that's the case. I believe it has more to do with experience and life circumstance. I think many of these Universities sell young people a bill of goods with respect to racking up huge debt that is to be paid off by a great job when they graduate. However, that great job never materializes and much of the education is driven by the profit motive of the university and not the educational or economic needs of the student. Nursing is a case in point. If you spent $150K to get a $60K a year job you made a bad decision because you could have spent less than $10K to get the same job. If you have some employer telling you need to double down on your investment just to maintain the status quo you should walk because its not worth it. All's I'm saying is that nurses should do the same economic analysis that every other profession do before investing time and effort in to pursuing any degree

Ok stable genius, that's cute. On a side, lawyers and physicians actually see financial returns on their educational investments. Nurses do not. So, put on your adult underpants honey... then, go to the library like us COBs did waaaay back when, and brush up on history and evolution of nursing. You're doing this trade-profession a disservice by dismissing negative trends and telling others to basically shut up and drink up the poison. Nursing is a trade-profession, open a textbook and review its history. No one is declaring that extended education is valueless. All education is valuable. I should know I have 3 degrees. If I was independently wealthy I'd obtain more (degrees). The crux of most people's discord with the push for mandatory BScN is that it's an irrationally formalized requirement that doesn't match employment trends or translate into real world skills. Moreover, the promise that a BScN degree will pay off rests on some questionable assumptions. Many BScN graduates have yet to earn back on their investment, and many stats demonstrate they may never earn the value back over a lifetime. One important caveat is that it is the norm to go into exorbitant debt on one's education: just ask the hundreds of thousands of nursing graduates who have not found work as nurses, or those suffering with precarious employment trends... or borrowers who are either crippled by student loan payments or have defaulted their federal student loans within a few years of graduating. The BScN is not required to perform nursing skills. The detraction from hands-on clinical skill in favour of increased theoretical study does not solve or improve any of the increasingly disturbing issues we're seeing emerge in nursing.

Many nurses would not react so strongly against obtaining more and more education if it actually translated into improving the quality of their work, employment options, and increased income. What we're seeing is a push towards higher and higher credentials, at increasingly unaffordable costs to nurses with no employment guarantees to earn back on their investment. Nurses are not martyrs, and to encourage nurses to martyr themselves and risk poverty is asinine. It is in the "bean counters" interest to push towards inflating enrollment because education is a big bu$iness that theyre reaping most of the benefits from, just ask all the struggling nursing graduates. If they want to declare a new credentials standard, when research/reality are increasingly showing it's a low return investment... yes, then hospitals/facilities should pay or at the very least subsidize part of it. Forcing people to go into debt to obtain more credentials (which aren't required to perform the job) for imaginary employment is ludicrous.

The sentiment being communicated to nurses (by corporations, hospitals, academia) is that they have no interest in making things better, nor are they making tangible efforts to make things better. Instead, they're basically saying...The beatings will continue until morale improves.

I have several things to say:

Firstly, you're comparing me to Trump? Seriously? Lol. Additionally, your "that's cute" and "honey" comments are passive aggressive -I don't get it. Why are those comments necessary? To passively denigrate me? It's unprofessional, but I suppose the anonymity of an online username gives you great courage. Bravo! I prefer liquor, but at least I don't turn mean.

Secondly, you said nurses don't see returns on their educational investments. I kind of get what you're saying, but your statement isn't the most accurate. Wages/salaries for bedside RNs, regardless of degree, are fairly similar within institutions, but a BSN or higher greatly increases your income potential - whether it's leaving the bedside or transferring to a higher-paying hospital while still at the bedside.

Thirdly, I'm unsure why you brought up the history of nursing and telling me to brush up. Hm okay, I will? But, registered nursing is still a profession.

Fourthly, I never said in my post that BSN-opposers should shut up and drink the poison...nor all that other rambling you did. I think you misinterpreted my post. If RNs are content with their jobs and plan on retiring in the same role, all power to them - a BSN certainly won't help their pay or clinical competency. But, I also feel that the culture of nursing is changing, with fewer RNs retiring at the bedside and fewer RNs staying within the same department or employer - a BSN gives them flexibility to move around and augments their competitiveness for higher-paying jobs. It's not imaginary employment. That's like calling Warren Buffet a fool for investing his money in the stock market, all for the sake of future imaginary payoffs.

Perhaps my original post was lacking in brevity. This is what I meant - a bachelor's degree in nursing has NEVER been about increasing one's clinical competence, which is why it seems a bridge program is filled with useless classes. But, if you want future career flexibility and better income potential, then pull up those panties and take those seemingly useless classes. Whether it is personally worth it is up to the individual's circumstances.

Additionally, you ABSOLUTELY DO NOT have to accrue massive debt for a BSN, so I don't get your martyrdom analogy. And if you do, then it's your fault, and no one else's. Personal finance and awareness is a great skill.

I'm not yet for a mandated BSN. And until it is, I likely will never get one.

Now, go change out of your soiled big girl panties, please.

Specializes in OB.
I have several things to say:

Firstly, you're comparing me to Trump? Seriously? Lol. Additionally, your "that's cute" and "honey" comments are passive aggressive -I don't get it. Why are those comments necessary? To passively denigrate me? It's unprofessional, but I suppose the anonymity of an online username gives you great courage. Bravo! I prefer liquor, but at least I don't turn mean.

Secondly, you said nurses don't see returns on their educational investments. I kind of get what you're saying, but your statement isn't the most accurate. Wages/salaries for bedside RNs, regardless of degree, are fairly similar within institutions, but a BSN or higher greatly increases your income potential - whether it's leaving the bedside or transferring to a higher-paying hospital while still at the bedside.

Thirdly, I'm unsure why you brought up the history of nursing and telling me to brush up. Hm okay, I will? But, registered nursing is still a profession.

Fourthly, I never said in my post that BSN-opposers should shut up and drink the poison...nor all that other rambling you did. I think you misinterpreted my post. If RNs are content with their jobs and plan on retiring in the same role, all power to them - a BSN certainly won't help their pay or clinical competency. But, I also feel that the culture of nursing is changing, with fewer RNs retiring at the bedside and fewer RNs staying within the same department or employer - a BSN gives them flexibility to move around and augments their competitiveness for higher-paying jobs. It's not imaginary employment. That's like calling Warren Buffet a fool for investing his money in the stock market, all for the sake of future imaginary payoffs.

Perhaps my original post was lacking in brevity. This is what I meant - a bachelor's degree in nursing has NEVER been about increasing one's clinical competence, which is why it seems a bridge program is filled with useless classes. But, if you want future career flexibility and better income potential, then pull up those panties and take those seemingly useless classes. Whether it is personally worth it is up to the individual's circumstances.

Additionally, you ABSOLUTELY DO NOT have to accrue massive debt for a BSN, so I don't get your martyrdom analogy. And if you do, then it's your fault, and no one else's. Personal finance and awareness is a great skill.

I'm not yet for a mandated BSN. And until it is, I likely will never get one.

Now, go change out of your soiled big girl panties, please.

Thank you for your sane, rational reply! Couldn't agree more. If you don't want to get a BSN, don't get one. If you've got an ADN, found an area of nursing where you're comfortable and a BSN truly won't be of any benefit to you, then more power to you. But to deny that that is where the profession is headed, and to claim that furthering one's education in nursing by involving loosely-related topics or courses, rather than sticking strictly to hands-on tasks only, is "fluff" or a waste of time, is just stubbornly keeping one's head in the sand, IMO. The nursing profession is rapidly adjusting to meet the growing needs of an ever-changing healthcare system. This includes a push towards more education for nurses. Adapt or die.

With the ever-increasing physician shortage, NPs are becoming the primary care provider in many areas, especially the rural ones. How would you propose to keep BSN nurses at the bedside versus continuing their education?

In all honesty, I would never encourage any nurse not to advance their education. I believe this would be shooting our profession in the foot. Mid-level providers are an excellent avenue for healthcare and when partnered with a physician practice they have proven to have better patient outcomes. Instead, I would encourage young nurses to pursue their BSN degree from the start of their college education. Many nursing schools are turning away qualified applicants because they do not have the faculty capacity to teach more students. So, I believe we should be looking here, at the potential student nurse population to grow the number of bedside nurses. If we want to grow the population of nurses, we need more nursing faculty.

This is a very poor question - there is little I genuinely HATE more than the implication that being educated and/or continuing one's education is mutually exclusive of being at the bedside.

Next, the answer is mind-boggling for its spectacular failure to give the obvious answer - which is very, very simple: Stop.treating.bedside.nurses.like.crap.

On the whole, there is no nursing shortage. There is a shortage of people who want to be treated like crap.