Israel Hamas War

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Senior year Class of 1973, clearly remember 1973 Israel Arab war.... sure this topic will come up at our 50th reunion this month. I'm bringing cheesecakes for desert.

Thoughts from a history professor Christopher Jones
 

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Today I woke up to a picture of a street in Ashkelon that I used to walk down regularly on the front page of CNN, aflame and littered with burned-out cars.

I've been stunned. As a sense-making exercise for myself, here's a brief ?with some thoughts on what this means:

A great strategic threat to Hamas is that the Sunni Arab countries will choose to set the Palestine issue aside and normalize ties with Israel. This has already happened with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

Recently there have been reports of the Biden administration mediating further productive talks with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is the holy grail of efforts for Sunni Arab-Israel rapprochement, because of Saudi Arabia's influence throughout the Sunni world.

IMO, this is what Hamas is trying to disrupt. The goal is to provoke a military response so massive that it becomes politically impossible for any Sunni Arab to recognize Israel.

NB: Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to condemn Hamas this morning.

But this is a big gamble for Hamas, because the news coming out of Israel today is horrific.

Hamas slaughtered hundreds of people and kidnapped dozens of others. The footage spreading across Twitter and the news media today is reminiscent of the fall of Mosul to ISIS in 2014.

Videos of Hamas fighters celebrating as they parade partially undressed captive women through the streets might play well with the most rabidly anti-Israel sector of the Middle Eastern public, but it puts many of Hamas' sympathizers in the West in a difficult position.

I'm not talking about the subset of people who don't think of Jewish people as fully human. Nothing will change their minds. Footage like this only confirms their belief system.

I'm talking about people whose sympathies with Hamas are based on perceived victimhood.

These people often think about the conflict in terms of proportionality contrasting minor Hamas attacks that kill a few people with massive Israeli retaliation.

When Hamas takes over 22 towns and massacres hundreds of civilians, that framework goes out the window.

What this likely translates to, diplomatically speaking, is less diplomatic pressure from the US & EU for Israel to show restraint.

Wouldn't be surprised if Netanyahu gets a low-key green light from Washington and Brussells to completely remove Hamas from power & occupy Gaza.

Now what does this mean in Israel? This is clearly an intelligence disaster on par with Yom Kippur 1973. Except that in 1973 the fighting all happened away from major population centers. This was an attack on the civilian populace of the type Israel hasn't seen since 1947-48.

This is the largest attack on civilians in Israeli history. Like the Kfar Etzion massacre in 1948, it will be a graphic symbol for a generation of what would happen were Israel to lose a war.

Will this empower the far-right in Israel? I doubt it. But I expect it will move politics in general even farther to the right.

If 1973 is any indication, this could be career-ending for Netanyahu.

The problem, of course, is that Israel doesn't have any good options to deal with Gaza, which is why successive Israeli governments have been kicking the can down the road and fighting an inconclusive war every 3-5 years in hopes that something will change in the future....


 

 

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President Joe Biden today delivered a forceful speech pledging full support for Israel against the attacks by Hamas, asking Congress for further military aid beyond previously budgeted funds. Biden also said he has consulted with European leaders to forge a united response. In addition, he spoke of beefing up security for Jewish centers in the U.S. and assured that the FBI and Homeland Security are on the alert for any potential domestic terror threats.  My local synagogue 3 blocks away with police passing by on more frequent rounds.

10/10/2023: 

VP  Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken stood behind President Biden during his Remarks on Hamas Attacks on Israel today.

 President Biden condemns the attacks on Israel by Hamas, calling them "pure unadulterated evil" and says the U.S. "stands with Israel."  The President said that he has spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu and that "my administration's support for Israel's security is rock solid and unwavering.

CSPAN video: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5087908/president-biden-we-stand-israel

 

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NRSKarenRN said:

President Joe Biden today delivered a forceful speech pledging full support for Israel against the attacks by Hamas, asking Congress for further military aid beyond previously budgeted funds. Biden also said he has consulted with European leaders to forge a united response. In addition, he spoke of beefing up security for Jewish centers in the U.S. and assured that the FBI and Homeland Security are on the alert for any potential domestic terror threats.  My local synagogue 3 blocks away with police passing by on more frequent rounds.

10/10/2023: 

VP  Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken stood behind President Biden during his Remarks on Hamas Attacks on Israel today.

 President Biden condemns the attacks on Israel by Hamas, calling them "pure unadulterated evil" and says the U.S. "stands with Israel."  The President said that he has spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu and that "my administration's support for Israel's security is rock solid and unwavering.

CSPAN video: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5087908/president-biden-we-stand-israel

 

Not bad for a guy that we are supposed to believe is in the midst of a demented state.  Meanwhile, there's suspicion that Hamas had access to some information on Israeli intelligence that showed them how to keep this attack secret.  The suspicion is that they received that information via Russia who received that highly classified information from the new President in May of 2017. Israel was furious at the time saying that the breach would cost lives. They may be right.  

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toomuchbaloney said:

... Meanwhile, there's suspicion that Hamas had access to some information on Israeli intelligence that showed them how to keep this attack secret.  The suspicion is that they received that information via Russia who received that highly classified information from the new President in May of 2017. Israel was furious at the time saying that the breach would cost lives. They may be right.  

I've not been able to find this.  Do you have  source?  Or is it just your suspicion?

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chare said:

I've not been able to find this.  Do you have  source?  Or is it just your suspicion?

It's a lot of peoples' suspicion. I've seen it all over lefty commentary. No solid evidence though. Not worth chasing down yet. In fact, we may never know. It doesn't seem like the kind of thing the intelligence community would want on the evening news.

Personally, I've been suspicious ever since I heard about the Saudi $2billion "investment" with Jared Kushner.

Oh to be a fly on the wall of the intelligence assessment of trump's stolen documents.

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toomuchbaloney said:

Not bad for a guy that we are supposed to believe is in the midst of a demented state.  Meanwhile, there's suspicion that Hamas had access to some information on Israeli intelligence that showed them how to keep this attack secret.  The suspicion is that they received that information via Russia who received that highly classified information from the new President in May of 2017. Israel was furious at the time saying that the breach would cost lives. They may be right.  

Good speech, indeed. 

Although, as far as your first comment goes, reading of the teleptompter isn't too high of expectation my president, demented or not.

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chare said:

I've not been able to find this.  Do you have  source?  Or is it just your suspicion?

It's widespread suspicion.  Google it.

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chare said:

I've not been able to find this.  Do you have  source?  Or is it just your suspicion?

My source is myself and my knowledge that Trump revealed sensitive Israeli intelligence to Russia in May of 2017. It's also a suspicion that acknowledges that the CIA reportedly pulled a top "spy" out of Russia after Trump leaked that secret information. 

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At the time, then-CIA Director Mike Pompeo told other senior Trump administration officials that too much information was coming out regarding the covert source, known as an asset. An extraction, or "exfiltration" as such an operation is referred to by intelligence officials, is an extraordinary remedy when US intelligence believes an asset is in immediate danger.

Meanwhile, by the time we got past the Trump administration, the CIA was making the unprecedented announcement that they had been losing dozens of informants across the globe.  That's quite a coincidence. 

Yeah. There's suspicion that Russia shared the info that their buddy Trump gave them with other countries like Iran. There's also suspicion that Trump's actions increased animosity that has now resulted in this brutal violence.  

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Trump cut $25 million in U.S. support for Palestinian hospitals, and $200 million from the UN Relief and Works Agency, which has helped displaced Palestinians and their descendants since 1949.

Yes. There's suspicion, well deserved suspicion.  

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Beerman said:

Good speech, indeed. 

Although, as far as your first comment goes, reading of the teleptompter isn't too high of expectation my president, demented or not.

It was and remains too high an expectation for the previous president to read such a powerful speech, even from a teleprompter.  Odd that you would mention expectations like that when the bar was set so low by the republican front runner.   

Comparatively, Biden's front running opponent mentioned the attack about an hour into his NH rally on Monday.  He also repeated some falsehoods and fabrications about the matter.  Teleprompters can't save Trump from his tendency to lie, his bad speech writing, and his word salad improvisation. 

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toomuchbaloney said:

My source is myself and my knowledge that Trump revealed sensitive Israeli intelligence to Russia in May of 2017. It's also a suspicion that acknowledges that the CIA reportedly pulled a top "spy" out of Russia after Trump leaked that secret information. 

Meanwhile, by the time we got past the Trump administration, the CIA was making the unprecedented announcement that they had been losing dozens of informants across the globe.  That's quite a coincidence. 

Yeah. There's suspicion that Russia shared the info that their buddy Trump gave them with other countries like Iran. There's also suspicion that Trump's actions increased animosity that has now resulted in this brutal violence.  

Yes. There's suspicion, well deserved suspicion.  

You and Joy Behar.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/joy-behar-speculates-behind-hamas-attack-brings-putin-trump?dicbo=v2-QKYBJVH

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toomuchbaloney said:

It was and remains too high an expectation for the previous president to read such a powerful speech, even from a teleprompter.  Odd that you would mention expectations like that when the bar was set so low by the republican front runner.   

Comparatively, Biden's front running opponent mentioned the attack about an hour into his NH rally on Monday.  He also repeated some falsehoods and fabrications about the matter.  Teleprompters can't save Trump from his tendency to lie, his bad speech writing, and his word salad improvisation. 

Your point might be taken seriously if I had ever complimented Trump for reading a teleprompter in the way you just did Biden.

Are you catching Biden's remarks, right now?

I wouldn't go as far to say he's sounding like he's in a demented state.  But he does sound like a feeble, rambling, old man

 

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