Total Number of Nurse Practitioners Hits 325,000

[MentalKlarity]

According to latest AANP survey, the total number of nurse practitioners in the United States is now at 325,000.

Last year it was at 290,000 so it increased by 35,000 or 12% in one year.

There are approx. 9,000 physician assistant graduates per year.

There are approx. 33,000 physician graduates per year.

The number of new NPs annually is not only higher than other fields, but accelerating. In 2010, for example, there were only about 10,000 NP graduates a year.

Are we heading toward massive saturation of our own field?

[djmatte, ADN, MSN, RN, NP]

In our current medical climate, I don’t foresee much change on how things are structured. And in that, I feel that NP saturation will continue to feel more palpable.  If more states aren’t on board with NP autonomy, we will continue to be a secondary source of income for doctors; many of whom will offer even lower salaries as saturation becomes even more obvious.  
 

That last article noted a few areas where things can improve. Things like hour adjustments, increase of NPs and PAs because we “cost less”, or use of more people or systems that do back end work (scribes, automation, etc). All of which are not easily implemented by either provider unwillingness, cost/benefit weighing, or a range of other reasons these things haven’t been implemented already. As we are still technically in the throws of Covid, insurance companies are starting to set dates to reign in telehealth payments as they believe the payouts shouldn’t be the same as an office visit. This will again reduce access to a service despite some people getting increased care access despite a global pandemic. 
 

Michigan is noted as being number 6 on that list of access issues. But as someone who lives and works here, the issue isn’t provider numbers so much as the number of facilities available to hire providers. That’s what we are lacking.  As I’ve stated in the past, unless an NP has either autonomy or some ability to bill independently more efficiently, then saturation will only worsen. Less doctors/clinics means less collaborators. And as new doctors are enlightened to scope creep, we will see an increased unwillingness by them to work with us. Many residents are actively discussing this regularly.  I honestly don’t foresee our profession thriving like the more optimistic people here do.  Need for care is certainly there. Tools to deliver that care are not. 

[FullGlass, BSN, MSN, NP]

1 hour ago, djmatte said:

As I’ve stated in the past, unless an NP has either autonomy or some ability to bill independently more efficiently, then saturation will only worsen. Less doctors/clinics means less collaborators. And as new doctors are enlightened to scope creep, we will see an increased unwillingness by them to work with us. Many residents are actively discussing this regularly.  I honestly don’t foresee our profession thriving like the more optimistic people here do.  Need for care is certainly there. Tools to deliver that care are not. 

The number of states with FPA is increasing and will continue to do so.  I see no indication that doctors are unwilling to work with NPs.  Unless the doctor owns their own practice, they really can't unilaterally make decisions like that.  And in certain specialities, it financially makes a lot of sense to have NPs and PAs.

[PsychNurse24, BSN, RN]

On 5/6/2021 at 10:53 PM, MentalKlarity said:

These numbers are actually assuming FEWER nurse practitioner graduates. At this point with the explosion of online programs accepting almost every applicant and graduating thousands per year per school, the supply is more than double even the HRSA estimates from your article predicting an oversupply!

BLS.gov predicts that in the next 10 years jobs for Nurse Practitioners will increase by 45%. Nurse Practitioner jobs are growing much faster than other professions.  There are a lot of Nurse Practitioner opportunities in the mountain west.  

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

2 hours ago, PsychNurse24 said:

BLS.gov predicts that in the next 10 years jobs for Nurse Practitioners will increase by 45%. Nurse Practitioner jobs are growing much faster than other professions.  There are a lot of Nurse Practitioner opportunities in the mountain west.  

Irrelevant if the number of nurse practitioners grows by 300% in the same time frame. Most estimates are showing an oversupply of nurse practitioners by 2030.

[PsychNurse24, BSN, RN]

Just now, MentalKlarity said:

Irrelevant if the number of nurse practitioners grows by 300% in the same time frame. Most estimates are showing an oversupply of nurse practitioners by 2030.

BLS.gov knows what it is doing.  If you haven’t checked their site out, please do. They take everything into consideration.  They have been correct about nursing and nurse practitioners for decades. And they have estimates on all jobs in this country. They are experts.

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

8 minutes ago, PsychNurse24 said:

BLS.gov knows what it is doing.  If you haven’t checked their site out, please do. They take everything into consideration.  They have been correct about nursing and nurse practitioners for decades. And they have estimates on all jobs in this country. They are experts.

I don't doubt that. You seem to misunderstand what they are saying in the data. They are saying jobs will grow by 45%. I can accept that. But the number of nurse practitioners are growing by MORE than 45%. In other words, there is still more supply coming than growth in demand.

The BLS numbers say nothing about supply.

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

I just checked the BLS numbers. They estimate 24,000 new NP jobs annually from 2019-2029.

 

We just graduated 32,000 in one year, that's 8,000 more than needed. If this continues even at this pace (currently it's accelerating every year) but even for sake of simplicity then BLS itself is estimating 80,000 more nurse practitioners than jobs by 2029.

That's an oversupply. A bad one. It can only mean longer hours, poorer wages, and fewer benefits as the desperate new graduates compete for fewer and fewer jobs.

[NurseBlaq]

Or states will have to address independent practice. Fewer jobs don't equate fewer patient needs. There's only saturation in certain areas and people don't want to move to where the jobs are. It's not a blanket issue that applies nationwide.

[londonflo]

On 5/7/2021 at 2:25 PM, MentalKlarity said:

I know several nurses who went to NP school in their spare time online while working as a floor nurse,

I was totally supportive of the NP role when it became common. But after some bad experiences with poor communication, my experience with mentoring a Walden student, I am done! If I can find out where the NP went to school, I may consider it. 

And if you truly want to 'master' a new role, you need to do it full time...OK this is my feeling...when does someone develop a new role just slipping in studying time when it is convenient

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

33 minutes ago, londonflo said:

..when does someone develop a new role just slipping in studying time when it is convenient

When the role becomes nothing more than a money making tool for a for-profit university and this is how they must pitch it to busy working nurses to get them to bite.

[PsychNurse24, BSN, RN]

10 hours ago, MentalKlarity said:

I don't doubt that. You seem to misunderstand what they are saying in the data. They are saying jobs will grow by 45%. I can accept that. But the number of nurse practitioners are growing by MORE than 45%. In other words, there is still more supply coming than growth in demand.

The BLS numbers say nothing about supply.

Of course they take supply into consideration!

[umbdude, MSN, APRN]

I take BLS numbers with a huge grain of salt. For years they projected amazing growth for pharmacists, and it's true that in the late 90s and early 2000s the job market was excellent. Then these PharmD diploma mills  start popping up (similar to Nursing, employers don't give a crap where you went to pharm school as long as you're licensed), and BLS continued to tout "faster than average growth" in pharmacy jobs, but even in the mid-late 2000s pharmacists were starting to see a notable saturation and worsening work conditions. It wasn't until last year did BLS change the job growth to 0% and then -3% this year.

Clearly, pharmacy is inherently different from nursing, but if pharmacists had kept their supply in check, they wouldn't be facing the disaster today. Basically, experienced pharmacists are either looking for a way out (usually computer science-related) or early retirement, and the new-grad pharmacists are fighting over jobs that pay $40/hr with >$200k in student loan debt.