Total Number of Nurse Practitioners Hits 325,000

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

According to latest AANP survey, the total number of nurse practitioners in the United States is now at 325,000.

Last year it was at 290,000 so it increased by 35,000 or 12% in one year.

There are approx. 9,000 physician assistant graduates per year.

There are approx. 33,000 physician graduates per year.

The number of new NPs annually is not only higher than other fields, but accelerating. In 2010, for example, there were only about 10,000 NP graduates a year.

Are we heading toward massive saturation of our own field?

[sleepwalker, MSN, NP]

How many of those are active/practicing?

How many are eligible for retirement in the next 5 yrs?

Lots of other factors to consider besides total number.

[djmatte, ADN, MSN, RN, NP]

5 hours ago, sleepwalker said:

How many of those are active/practicing?

How many are eligible for retirement in the next 5 yrs?

Lots of other factors to consider besides total number.

With 10000 graduating ten years ago, you can presume most current nurse practitioners graduated in the past ten years. Really the other factors are moot because a 250% increase in annual graduation numbers over ten years easily cancels out attrition and still shows significant growth. There were 56000 nurse practitioners registered when 10000 were graduating a year. We have gone from a 5.6 percent increase to 9.3. Without independent practice this is not sustainable.

[FullGlass, BSN, MSN, NP]

Here we go again, more hysteria over this supposed oversaturation.

I see no indication of an oversupply of NPs.

Has anyone here studied clinical reasoning or logic?  If there is a shortage of X, and then the supply of X increases, it is not necessarily true that there is no longer a shortage of X.

If I need 1 pound of flour, but all I can get is 4 ounces, then I am still short of flour.

If I am able to get another 4 ounces, a 100% increase, then I am still short of flour.

In addition, we do not have guaranteed employment in this country.  Just because someone earns an NP, does not mean they are guaranteed a job as an NP.  You do realize that not all medical school graduates are able to get internships?

We have a competitive economy.  People compete for jobs and the best candidate for the job is selected.

If you don't have enough confidence to believe you can win a competitive employment process, then don't become an NP!

That said, demand for NPs varies by location.  So do the research on the demand for NPs where you want to work!  

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

5 hours ago, FullGlass said:

Here we go again, more hysteria over this supposed oversaturation.

I see no indication of an oversupply of NPs.

Has anyone here studied clinical reasoning or logic?  If there is a shortage of X, and then the supply of X increases, it is not necessarily true that there is no longer a shortage of X.

If I need 1 pound of flour, but all I can get is 4 ounces, then I am still short of flour.

If I am able to get another 4 ounces, a 100% increase, then I am still short of flour.

In addition, we do not have guaranteed employment in this country.  Just because someone earns an NP, does not mean they are guaranteed a job as an NP.  You do realize that not all medical school graduates are able to get internships?

We have a competitive economy.  People compete for jobs and the best candidate for the job is selected.

If you don't have enough confidence to believe you can win a competitive employment process, then don't become an NP!

That said, demand for NPs varies by location.  So do the research on the demand for NPs where you want to work!  

It's more like we needed a pound of flour and are getting 4 pounds. The market can't absorb this many per year.

And do you know who "wins" a competitive employment process? The employer! When there are 10 NPs for every job they can just keep lowering salary and benefits as people get more desperate. That's not a good thing.

 

[Devnation]

It's not hysteria, it is fact. Yes, there will be an oversupply of primary care nurse practitioners in the very near future, at least. Don't take my word for it, check the statistics on the Department of Health and Human Services website, to quote:

"National Trends in Primary Care Nurse Practitioner (NP) Supply and Demand: Approximately 57,330 primary care NPs were active in the U.S. workforce in 2013. Trending forward to 2025 and using current supply determinants (e.g., entry and attrition rates), approximately 72,960 FTE primary care NPs will enter the workforce and 19,540 FTE NPs will leave the workforce. A net growth of 53,210 FTE NPs (93 percent) will result in a projected national workforce of 110,540 FTE primary care NPs by 2025 (Exhibit 3). Assuming the current national NP demand equals the current NP supply of 57,330, the demand for NPs is projected to reach 68,040 FTEs by 2025, an increase of 10,710 FTEs (19 percent). This growth in demand is driven primarily by an aging population with commensurate increased health service needs (90 percent). Expanded health insurance coverage exerts a relatively small (10 percent) impact on 2025 primary care NP demand."

TL;Dr

HRSA is predicting a surplus of 42,500 primary care NPs by 2025.

https://bhw.HRSA.gov/sites/default/files/bureau-health-workforce/data-research/primary-care-national-projections-2013-2025.pdf

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

28 minutes ago, Devnation said:

It's not hysteria, it is fact. Yes, there will be an oversupply of primary care nurse practitioners in the very near future, at least. Don't take my word for it, check the statistics on the Department of Health and Human Services website, to quote:

"National Trends in Primary Care Nurse Practitioner (NP) Supply and Demand: Approximately 57,330 primary care NPs were active in the U.S. workforce in 2013. Trending forward to 2025 and using current supply determinants (e.g., entry and attrition rates), approximately 72,960 FTE primary care NPs will enter the workforce and 19,540 FTE NPs will leave the workforce. A net growth of 53,210 FTE NPs (93 percent) will result in a projected national workforce of 110,540 FTE primary care NPs by 2025 (Exhibit 3). Assuming the current national NP demand equals the current NP supply of 57,330, the demand for NPs is projected to reach 68,040 FTEs by 2025, an increase of 10,710 FTEs (19 percent). This growth in demand is driven primarily by an aging population with commensurate increased health service needs (90 percent). Expanded health insurance coverage exerts a relatively small (10 percent) impact on 2025 primary care NP demand."

TL;Dr

HRSA is predicting a surplus of 42,500 primary care NPs by 2025.

https://bhw.HRSA.gov/sites/default/files/bureau-health-workforce/data-research/primary-care-national-projections-2013-2025.pdf

These numbers are actually assuming FEWER nurse practitioner graduates. At this point with the explosion of online programs accepting almost every applicant and graduating thousands per year per school, the supply is more than double even the HRSA estimates from your article predicting an oversupply!

[DermNP, BSN, MSN, DNP, RN, APRN, NP]

The oversupply issues has been here for awhile.  I work in the rural San Joaquin Valley of California and even here there are more providers than jobs.  Those who don't believe we have a surplus of NPs are naive.   As a profession we have diluted ourselves.  Lower wages are here.  Longer times to get employed are here.  If I was a young RN I wouldn't consider being a NP these days.  Look elsewhere for work.  It's just not worth it today. 

[MentalKlarity, BSN, NP]

3 hours ago, DermNP said:

The oversupply issues has been here for awhile.  I work in the rural San Joaquin Valley of California and even here there are more providers than jobs.  Those who don't believe we have a surplus of NPs are naive.   As a profession we have diluted ourselves.  Lower wages are here.  Longer times to get employed are here.  If I was a young RN I wouldn't consider being a NP these days.  Look elsewhere for work.  It's just not worth it today. 

Agreed. I know several nurses who went to NP school in their spare time online while working as a floor nurse, and either still work bedside or have accepted an NP job making the same or $5-$7 more per hour.

The prestige and entry requirements are gone thanks to little to no regulation of NP programs and now the NP degree simply does not open the doors it once did.

[FullGlass, BSN, MSN, NP]

What amazes me is the number of readers of this forum who seem to think that they are ENTITLED to a job.  No one in the US is ENTITLED to a job.  

We have a capitalist economy, governed by supply and demand.  If the supply of NPs exceeds the demand, then not all NPs will have jobs as NPs.  If we get to that point, then the BEST candidates will get jobs.  I am also concerned about all the NP diploma mills.  An oversupply of NPs will destroy the diploma mills, which is good, IMO.

I am tired of all this overreacting to the latest projections.  If you truly want to be an NP, ignore this scaremongering.  Go to the best school you can and do other things to make yourself an attractive candidate.

Projections are just that - projections.  They are not gospel truth, nor are they 100% accurate.  These numbers are always gross statistics that do not take into account DISTRIBUTION.  Some areas may have an oversupply of providers, other areas do not have enough.  There are still many areas of this country that do not have enough providers, of any sort.

"The expanding NP population is also a case of supply rising to meet a growing demand. According to the American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC), the United States will see a shortage of up to nearly 122,000 physicians by 2032. "

https://dailynurse.com/number-of-nps-has-doubled-since-2010-will-continue-to-rise/

FPA is increasing, so many more states will provide FPA, which will open up employment opportunities for NPs.

Of the cited statistics, we don't know how many NPs are unable to find jobs.  And of the total number of NPs, many are retired, working PT, or may still be working as RNs.

There is still a shortage of NPs in certain locations and specialties.

And if there are too many NPs at some point, good.  Competition is good.  It will also stop people from becoming NPs for the wrong reasons.

This past year has been a bad job market for NPs due to COVID.  But many MDs have also lost their jobs or have reduced hours for the same reason.

DO THE RESEARCH FOR YOUR DESIRED LOCATION

California

"An estimated 11,226,111 people in California live in an area that has a shortage of primary care providers."

https://www.chcf.org/publication/shortchanged-health-workforce-gaps-california/

"More than half of Californians suffering from mental health issues are not receiving the psychiatric care they need. Within the next decade, the state is expected to see the number of psychiatrists decline by 34 percent. " 

https://nursing.UCSF.edu/news/california-has-shortage-mental-health-providers-how-ucs-bold-new-initiative-will-address-it#:~:text=How UC's Bold New Initiative Will Address It.,-By Milenko Martinovich&text=More than half of Californians,psychiatrists decline by 34 percent.

The above research took me all of 5 minutes.

So, I am not scared.  And I refuse to live my life in fear or make choices based on scaremongering.

A lot of people want to be successful actors or athletes.  Far more than actually "make it."  Yet for those who have what it takes, the rewards are enormous.  

No risk, no reward.

 

[FullGlass, BSN, MSN, NP]

States with the worst primary care provider shortages

"California has the highest number of Health Professional Shortage Areas in the primary medical care category, according to Kaiser Family Foundation's new report.  

HPSA designations were determined by the number of health professionals proportionate to the  area's population with consideration of high need. An area must have a population-to-provider ratio of at least 3,500 to 1 to be considered as having a shortage. Rankings are based on a quarterly summary of HPSA statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Health Workforce, the Health Resources and Services Administration and HHS updated as of Sept. 30. 

There are a total of 7,203 areas in the U.S. with an HPSA designation. 

Here's how each state fared: 

Note: The list includes ties. 

California — 626 areas with an HPSA designation

Texas — 411

Missouri — 324

Alaska — 301

Florida — 279

Michigan — 261

Illinois — 245

Georgia — 234

Arizona — 217

Washington — 200

North Carolina — 189

Kansas — 188

Kentucky — 175

Oklahoma — 173

New York — 168 

Minnesota — 158 

Louisiana — 154

Ohio — 150

Mississippi — 148

Oregon — 144

Pennsylvania — 139

Montana — 138

Tennessee — 136

Iowa — 132

Colorado — 119

Indiana — 117

Virginia — 113

West Virginia — 105

     28. Wisconsin — 105

     30. Alabama — 102 

     31. Idaho — 98

     32. New Mexico — 97

     32. South Dakota — 97

     34. South Carolina — 95

     35. Arkansas — 88

     35. North Dakota — 88

     37. Nebraska — 76

     38. Nevada — 72

     39. Maine — 69

     40. Utah — 64

     41. Massachusetts — 62

     42. Wyoming — 47

     43. Maryland — 45

     44. Connecticut — 41

     45. Puerto Rico — 39 

     46. New Jersey — 36

    47. Hawaii — 31

    48. New Hampshire — 27 

    49. District of Columbia — 15

    49. Vermont — 15

    51. Rhode Island — 14

    52. Delaware — 13"

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/states-ranked-by-primary-care-provider-shortages.html

[FullGlass, BSN, MSN, NP]

Structural Issues Account for "shortage" of doctors

Very interesting article from the Harvard Business Review

https://hbr.org/2020/03/the-problem-with-u-s-health-care-isn't-a-shortage-of-doctors