From 2010 to 2020, the number of NP graduates each year increased from 10K to 30K, or 300%. It has been steadily increasing every year by about 2,000 to 3,000, primarily due to the diploma mills which happily pump out several thousand a year and grow their class size as much as possible since the entire thing is self-guided. More students means more profit, regardless of actual outcomes.
300% is higher than 45%. The job market will not grow fast enough to absorb all the extra NPs even at 45% a decade. We'd be doing quite well if not for the diploma mills, but alas.