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How bad will it get in the fall/Winter time?

And is there anything we can do to prepare ourselves for what is to come??

Best case scenario, there will be a vaccine, however I highly doubt it we will have anything in the next few months. 

Is there anything health care facilities can do to prepare? Extra ICU beds/Covid units? Stock up on PPE? 

What about non work, stock up on food/water/necessities, and be ready to hunker down? 

This doesn't look good to me at all. I am in FL and despite the warm weather the virus is spreading like wildfire. Our hospitals are overwhelmed at the moment. We have Covid units in SNF facilities. I can only imagine when the cold weather hits , and everyone will be inside most of the time, how bad it will get. 

What are your thoughts? 

A Hit With The Ladies, BSN, RN

Specializes in Psych.

Who knows?

Some scientists were theorizing that the Coronavirus situation would get better in the Summer (meaning now) while others said otherwise.

The Wall Street Journal had an article about it today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-hoped-Summer-temperatures-would-tamp-down-covid-19-cases-what-happened-11594632601

No doubt, there'll be public health "experts" who will talk out of both sides of their mouths... "It may get FAR worse in the Winter!"... but will conveniently be unavailable for comment if it isn't there in the Winter. Or they will just say "Oh but the science has changed!"

It's like when the meteorologist says there's a "30% chance of rain"... a good way to hedge your bets for plausible deniability either way 🙄

NRSKarenRN, BSN, RN

Specializes in Vents, Telemetry, Home Care, Home infusion.

Especially concerned after listening to Dr. Redfield CDC Director JAMA Coronavirus Update interview today: "predicts this fall and Winter will be 'one of the most difficult times we've experienced in American public health' ... Keeping healthcare system from being overstretched"

JAMA: Coronavirus Update with CDC Director Dr. Redfield

 

On 7/15/2020 at 1:37 AM, NRSKarenRN said:

Especially concerned after listening to Dr. Redfield CDC Directors  JAMA Coronavirus Update interview today: "predicts this fall and Winter will be 'one of the most difficult times we've experienced in American public health' ... Keeping healthcare system from being overstretched"

JAMA: Coronavirus Update with CDC Director Dr. Redfield

 

Sadly this is what is coming down to. I grew up in East Europe, no electricity in Winter times. We made do. 

Can we implement proactive plans before this hits us smack down ?? 

Where is the orange one chiming in on the Winter plans??? 

He opened up the Orlando Team Parks while our cases are out of control 

Shame on you, Trump/DeSantis...

A killer duo. I hope you enjoyed it 😢

Moderna just published everyone in their clinical trial (only like 10 people but still) had immunity, they're expanding it to like 20,000 people here at the end of the month. I think the vaccine will be here by fall

For 300 million Americans , plus the rest of the world? 

How ?

I think Moderna said the USA is the first in line to get the vaccine because we funded it and are doing the trials here

Nurse SMS, MSN, RN

Specializes in Critical Care; Cardiac; Professional Development.

5 hours ago, DMQ48 said:

I think Moderna said the USA is the first in line to get the vaccine because we funded it and are doing the trials here

Even if that is the case, mass production and distribution isn't realistic before the end of the year. I understand the desire to "think positively", but I think there is a difference between that and magical thinking. I don't believe there is any chance, from what the experts are telling us, of there being a reliable vaccine before Christmas.

8 hours ago, NewRN'16 said:

And is there anything we can do.to prepare ourselves for what is to come??

Best case scenario, there will be a vaccine, however I highly doubt it we will have anything in the next few months. 

Is there anything health care facilities can do to prepare? Extra ICU beds/Covid units? Stock up on PPE? 

What about non work, stock up on food/water/necessities, and be ready to hunker down? 

This doesn't look good to me at all. I am in FL and despite the warm weather the virus is spreading like wildfire. Our hospitals are overwhelmed at the moment. We have Covid units in SNF facilities. I can only imagine when the cold weather hits , and everyone will be inside most of the time, how bad it will get. 

What are your thoughts? 

 

In watching what is happening in my own institution, the issue really isn't going to be beds as much as it is going to be staff. We are already exhausted, burned out, seeing a TON of people calling in and having difficulty maintaining safe staffing ratios, both in the hospitals and at the testing centers we have set up around the community. We have plenty of beds and physical space in which to put people, but who is going to care for the people in the beds?

Ratios are beginning to creep and, being Texas, they weren't all that great to begin with. As we have seen posted here already, some who have not worked bedside in a long time don't feel confident or just plain don't want to return to bedside nursing. High patient ratios aren't going to help reassure those nervous to be tossed back onto the front line. As long as the government refuses to do anything to ease this thing back and people continue to use that as a sign that Covid isn't a real problem, we are going to see conditions like this. What most people are failing to realize is that it won't just impact those with Covid and/or influenza. It will impact anyone who needs hospitalized care for any reason.

Things are grim.

We know how bad it's going to get. It's going to be catastrophic and given the past several months that is no small statement.  We're looking at over a quarter million deaths by November now, for the love of Christ.  I guess 20,000+ new cases a day will do that.  

And the lesson for the mask rejecting re-opening mafia is that science/viruses don't care what your politics are.    Changes not one thing.

 

16 hours ago, DMQ48 said:

I think Moderna said the USA is the first in line to get the vaccine because we funded it and are doing the trials here

should you look into the world of clinical trials, what they've got is a vaccine that produces an immune response.  The next phase (3) is what determines if that response is sufficient to make enough antibodies and prevent infection in humans.   And that is a heck of a ways from a given right now.,

Wear a mask and distance already.

17 hours ago, DMQ48 said:

Moderna just published everyone in their clinical trial (only like 10 people but still) had immunity, they're expanding it to like 20,000 people here at the end of the month. I think the vaccine will be here by fall

they are entering phase 3. which is the real test. there is no guarantee of anything.  not trying to be a raincloud but I want people to be realistic at the same time.

 

I think the results did say that everyone studied had produced enough antibodies to fully fight it, I was under the impression the next step was just to get a bigger sample size.

On 7/15/2020 at 1:43 AM, NewRN'16 said:

For 300 million Americans , plus the rest of the world? 

How ?

We don’t need to vaccinate everyone upfront. Triage it, start with the most vulnerable; the elderly and those with comorbidities. That will knock out the majority of the death toll. Also, every healthcare worker. 

Edited by damianus

Nurse SMS, MSN, RN

Specializes in Critical Care; Cardiac; Professional Development.

11 hours ago, DMQ48 said:

I think the results did say that everyone studied had produced enough antibodies to fully fight it, I was under the impression the next step was just to get a bigger sample size.

They didn't at all say "fully fight it". They said they all produced antibodies. There are many different kinds of antibodies. Not all do the same thing, mean the same thing and not all give long-term immunity.

There is nothing wrong with being hopeful. There is, though, a lot wrong with using words that give false impressions and misrepresent things. It is this push to just end this thing already that has gotten us in so much trouble and I personally struggle to be patient with that line of thinking because where we are now. We will be doing this through Christmas and that is a bare minimum. Probably longer.

The first phase of the study just means we have cause to continue to the next phase. It doesn't mean we are "almost out of the woods" so to speak. Not by a long shot. Many vaccines, drugs and treatments end in the third phase as a bust. More than go on to be utilized.

There were, I believe, 45 people. Now Phase II comes with 600 people. Again, guard against magical thinking. Real scientific study takes time more than anything else. 

 

ladycody, BSN, RN

Specializes in CWON.

3 hours ago, damianus said:

We don’t need to vaccinate everyone upfront. Triage it, start with the most vulnerable; the elderly and those with comorbidities. That will knock out the majority of the death toll. Also, every healthcare worker. 

That's exactly what is done during flu season in LTC and prisons....start with those at the highest risk....and is how I would expect a new vaccine to be distributed. Having said that... effectiveness is still unclear.

Edited by ladycody

Nurse SMS, MSN, RN

Specializes in Critical Care; Cardiac; Professional Development.

4 hours ago, DMQ48 said:

https://investors.modernatx.com/static-files/a5bb9310-810f-43d6-b404-6bfac8ed4457

"Neutralizing antibody titers were observed in 100% of evaluated participants"

 

 

The definition of a neutralizing antibody titer is:

 

A neutralizing antibody (NAb) is an antibody that defends a cell from a pathogen or infectious particle by neutralizing any effect it has biologically. ... Immunity due to neutralizing antibodies is also known as sterilizing immunity, as the immune system eliminated the infectious particle before any infection took place.

This study also specifies that the titers are higher than those who actually had the disease itself. This is good news on both fronts without a doubt. It is also in 100% of those tested. Also good news. However, that is only 45 people and its only saying they MADE them. It doesn't say if they keep them nor for how long.

It is far, far too early to be waving the flag of victory and the way the general public is acting these days, we cannot afford to make it seem like a slam dunk. I am a skeptic with the opinion that science should propel forward based on worst case scenario, not best. I am glad it makes you feel better. It makes me cautiously hopeful but not enough so to make blanket statements.

The larger point is that those promising vaccine trial results are not going to save us from the most brutal fall and Winter influenza season than any of us are ever likely to live through in this country. 

Nurse SMS, MSN, RN

Specializes in Critical Care; Cardiac; Professional Development.

So situation where I work today - our hospital is full. 100%, stacked up in the ER full. We could take more patients if we had more staff but as things stand we have had to block some beds because there isn’t enough staff to care for them. 25% of our total capacity is Covid. And we are six weeks from early flu season with the nation openly flouting masking and distancing.

Six. Weeks.

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