What happens if trump loses & won’t leave?

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Specializes in Emergency.

So, I know the topic of trump refusing to accept that he lost the upcoming election is not a new story. However, it is a distinct possibility, given how we are looking at a much different voting protocol this cycle d/t covid. The question is - what happens if the results are in, trump loses & refuses to leave?

That at least is what I thought was the only question. But it appears that the situation might be more complex. There’s a interview on Vox with Amherst College law professor Lawrence Douglas who discusses the various scenarios that could play out and all but one culminate in trump refusing to leave.

One fascinating & terrifying scenario is “...come January 20, that we don’t have a president. By the terms of the 20th Amendment, Trump ceases to be president at noon on January 20 and [Mike] Pence likewise ceases to be vice president.

At this point, by the terms of the presidential succession act of 1947, the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could become acting president, but only if she resigns her House seat. But what if Trump continues to insist that he has been reelected and is the rightful president? Imagine if, come January 20, Trump stages his own inauguration ceremony with Clarence Thomas issuing the oath of office.”

The upshot of the discussion is we’re really not ready for this, constitutionally or culturally. Douglas points out that “one of the things that I realized is they [the founding fathers] don’t secure the peaceful succession of power. They presuppose it. They assume that it’s going to happen.“

However, there is a solution according to Douglas, a decisive victory by Biden that gives him the mandate of the popular vote and the electoral college. We shall see. Interesting times, no?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/6/3/21257133/trump-2020-election-meltdown-lawrence-douglas

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Specializes in NICU, PICU, Transport, L&D, Hospice.
51 minutes ago, emtb2rn said:

So, I know the topic of trump refusing to accept that he lost the upcoming election is not a new story. However, it is a distinct possibility, given how we are looking at a much different voting protocol this cycle d/t covid. The question is - what happens if the results are in, trump loses & refuses to leave?

That at least is what I thought was the only question. But it appears that the situation might be more complex. There’s a interview on Vox with Amherst College law professor Lawrence Douglas who discusses the various scenarios that could play out and all but one culminate in trump refusing to leave.

One fascinating & terrifying scenario is “...come January 20, that we don’t have a president. By the terms of the 20th Amendment, Trump ceases to be president at noon on January 20 and [Mike] Pence likewise ceases to be vice president.

At this point, by the terms of the presidential succession act of 1947, the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could become acting president, but only if she resigns her House seat. But what if Trump continues to insist that he has been reelected and is the rightful president? Imagine if, come January 20, Trump stages his own inauguration ceremony with Clarence Thomas issuing the oath of office.”

The upshot of the discussion is we’re really not ready for this, constitutionally or culturally. Douglas points out that “one of the things that I realized is they [the founding fathers] don’t secure the peaceful succession of power. They presuppose it. They assume that it’s going to happen.“

However, there is a solution according to Douglas, a decisive victory by Biden that gives him the mandate of the popular vote and the electoral college. We shall see. Interesting times, no?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/6/3/21257133/trump-2020-election-meltdown-lawrence-douglas

One scenario...Trump declares that the election was not valid and then deploys the military to squash the voices and protest of We The People...the American Republic ceases to exist other than on paper and in the history books. We've seen that the military leadership seems eager to battle the people on ideological differences with the POTUS.

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Specializes in Emergency.

Welllll, I don’t know that trump can just deploy the military. The insurrection act of 1807 has been in the news lately but it doesn’t appear that he could use it under that scenario. And the Posse Comitatus Act also precludes his use of the military domestically. He might still try though...

“In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Congress amended the Insurrection Act of 1807. The Act enables the President to deploy the military “to suppress, in any State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy.” The amended Act expands the language of the original Act to include natural disasters, epidemics, or other serious public health emergencies, terrorist attacks or incidents, or other conditions. Opponents of the amendment, most notably all fifty governors, criticize the amendment as a presidential power grab aimed at suppressing the power of the states and increasing the role of the military in domestic affairs.

This paper argues that the amendment to the Insurrection Act does not affect the President’s existing powers to deploy the military domestically. Instead, this paper argues that the amendment merely clarifies the situations that justify the use of the military to respond to domestic disorder. An analysis of the historical use of the Act and the Act’s language indicates that justification for presidential action prior to the amendment focused on the extent, rather than the source of the domestic disorder. The changes made in October of 2006 provide explicit examples of situations that may lead to events of public disorder justifying the President’s invocation of the Act’s authority. In addition, political and historical limitations, along with limitations in the Act itself, will restrict presidential abuse of the power. Thus, the uproar over the recent changes to the Insurrection Act and the fears of martial law are unfounded.”

https://www.law.berkeley.edu/library/resources/disasters/Crockett.pdf

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Specializes in NICU, PICU, Transport, L&D, Hospice.

Who will stop him? Will the military refuse?

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Specializes in UR/PA, Hematology/Oncology, Med Surg, Psych.

I've thought the same thing; he would rather this country have another Civil War than give up his power. And many Republican Senators and House members seem too weak to stop him.

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I think he would leave but might take a page from the Dem playbook and...

Maybe he will run around for a few years like Hillary on a book/speaking tour claiming she should have won. Or maybe like Staci he will run around claiming that he did in fact win.

I guess if he loses we will see.

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38 minutes ago, Daisy4RN said:

I think he would leave but might take a page from the Dem playbook and...

Maybe he will run around for a few years like Hillary on a book/speaking tour claiming she should have won. Or maybe like Staci he will run around claiming that he did in fact win.

I guess if he loses we will see.

No one worries that Trump will simply write a book and go on a speaking tour. He will gas light the public with lies and conspiracy theory, fear mongering and propaganda. He will whine that he was treated unfairly and claim that it was all rigged against him. He will spread nonsense to benefit himself. He will use words to incite feelings of hate and violence. We can see this now, every day and in a review of his presidency.

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On 6/5/2020 at 10:27 PM, dream'n said:

I've thought the same thing; he would rather this country have another Civil War than give up his power. And many Republican Senators and House members seem too weak to stop him.

While perhaps not directly related, if you want to talk weak, look at how cities with Dem mayors, states with Dem governors are allowing protests to create all sorts of mess.

On this, the 19th day that protestors have shut down I-5 in Washington, I believe, a driver got fed up with it and drove his car into the protestors. 2 were critically injured. I do not applaud the driver. However, I can understand his frustration. This should never have gotten anywhere near the 19th day of the freeway being shut down. Protestors should have been channeled to another location where they could do their protest thing and drivers could keep moving in spite of them.

I know that protest is important, I believe in the things they are protesting. I know change is needed in America. Sorely. But there is a time and a place and a way.

As for Trump losing and refusing to leave the White House, it will be handled. Either by DC police or the military or Secret Service or some other guys with guns. I think the nation will survive and I think, I hope, that the issue will be decided long before Jan. 20.

It might be decided by this bounty from Russia to Arab nations to slaughter our sons and daughters.

I just hope we get his tax returns soon!

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Interesting article in The Atlantic by Barbara McQuade ESQ., Former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan.

What Would Happen If Trump Refused to Leave Office?

Quote

...If Trump were inclined to overstay his term, the levers of power work in favor of removal. Because the president immediately and automatically loses his constitutional authority upon expiration of his term or after removal through impeachment, he would lack the power to direct the U.S. Secret Service or other federal agents to protect him. He would likewise lose his power, as the commander in chief of the armed forces, to order a military response to defend him. In fact, the newly minted president would possess those presidential powers. If necessary, the successor could direct federal agents to forcibly remove Trump from the White House. Now a private citizen, Trump would no longer be immune from criminal prosecution, and could be arrested and charged with trespassing in the White House. While even former presidents enjoy Secret Service protection, agents presumably would not follow an illegal order to protect one from removal from office.

Although Trump’s remaining in office seems unlikely, a more frightening—and plausible—scenario would be if his defeat inspired extremist supporters to engage in violence. One could imagine a world in which Trump is defeated in the 2020 election, and he immediately begins tweeting that the election was rigged. Or consider the possibility, albeit remote, that a second-term Trump is removed from office through impeachment, and rails about his ouster as a coup. His message would be amplified by right-wing media. If his grievances hit home with even a few people inclined toward violence, deadly acts of violence, or even terrorist attacks against the new administration, could result.

Ultimately, the key to the peaceful transfer of power is the conduct of the outgoing leader himself....

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/what-if-he-won't-go/606259/

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