Will Protests Lead to More COVID Surges?

Nurses COVID

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Disclaimer: I know that I can't control what people post on this forum, but I'm asking that we keep the discussion as apolitical and health-centered as possible. I know there are a lot of strong opinions about police brutality, protests, and riots/vandalism/looting. If you're interested to hear people's thoughts on those topics, there's an interesting, non-healthcare discussion in the US Politics Club on AN:

https://allnurses.com/riots-minneapolis-t720621/

Is anybody else seriously concerned that we might see a large surge in covid cases following all of these protests?

Last week, people were yelling on the TV about how irresponsible it was to begin Phases I/II and let people gather in groups of 10. Now, literally tens of thousands of people are gathering, and the media/public seem shockingly unconcerned. I feel like I'm getting social distancing policy whiplash.

Most of the protest pictures I've seen depict protesters wearing masks and attempting to follow covid guidelines. However, there are a ton of pics of people wearing masks incorrectly (under their noses or chins), and it's pretty much impossible to socially distance in protest/riot conditions. It seems like a nearly impossible environment to practice good hand hygiene. Plus, people are out yelling/chanting and projecting their droplets even further. I'm just so glad that they're outside instead of in a confined space.

I fully support peoples' right to demonstrate, and I generally support the protesters' rhetoric, but this seems like a recipe for disaster. With covid concerns still lingering, it seems like the worst possible time for people to be out congregating.

I'm especially worried about covid having a vastly disproportionate on black communities by the time this is all over. By now, we've probably all seen the data showing that African Americans are dying from covid at disproportionately higher rates than other races. Even if high-risk people are staying home from protests, I fear that protests could increase the spread through communities by contact with protesters. Of course, once it's out circulating in the community, the virus will be harmful to people of all races. To be perfectly honest, I also worry about huge outbreaks through the police force, too.

Even before all of this began, many states were starting Phase I/II despite an increasing numbers of cases. My state had the biggest spike we'd ever seen the day before Phase II started, and we went ahead with Phase II anyway (just before Memorial Day, when a ton of people were out socializing and ignoring distancing orders). It seems like the protests will fuel the spread of covid even further.

Outside of the big metro areas, most cities had relatively tiny covid surges since the stay at home orders were so effective. It seems like the smaller impact has lulled citizens of those cities/states into a false sense of security. I'm concerned that places like Minneapolis, which experienced a smaller impact the first go around, are going to see huge, unprecedented surges and start running out of beds/vents.

43 minutes ago, macawake said:

Daisy 4RN, you do write the most peculiar things.

(Quote function’s acting up, but this is one of your rather strange claims) - ->

Why don’t you link the criminological research that shows that cops aren’t racist but that blacks are more prone to violence? What exactly are the ”things” that need to be broken down in order to arrive at this conclusion?The science part of my brain absolutely detests vague claims like the one in the above quote.

As I used to work in law enforcement I have read heaps of criminological ? and I have seen research that shows that socially marginalized and poor people are more likely to commit certain crimes and are certainly more likely to be scrutinised/attract the attention of LEO’s. But I haven’t seen any that shows that the color of ones skin determines the propensity for violence. Do you realize that claiming that people with black skin are more prone to violence than the lily-white among us sounds profoundly racist? If you make a claim like that, I think that you need to support it with evidence.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-6.xls

On a more serious note. I don’t understand why this thread has turned so partisan. Why are we talking about Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Democratic social policies or even Trump? Granted, the Justice Department under Jeff Sessions hasn’t exactly helped advance police reform (think consent decrees), but the problem with excessive use of force by the police, especially towards persons of color, predates the Trump administration.

As evidenced by my abysmal reading comprehension skills, I’m not an American. But I used to live in Southern California in the early nineties and I remember Rodney King and the Los Angeles riots like it was yesterday. I remember the grainy video of the beating. I was horrified then, just as I was horrified when I saw the clip that showed how George Floyd was treated and subsequently died. This is not a case of one or two ”rotten apples”. It’s in my opinion systemic.

1 minute ago, macawake said:

On a more serious note. I don’t understand why this thread has turned so partisan. Why are we talking about Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Democratic governors or even Trump. Granted, the Justice Department under Jeff Sessions haven’t exactly helped advance police reform (think consent decrees), but the problem with excessive use of force by the police, especially towards persons of color, predates the Trump administration.

As evidenced by my abysmal reading comprehension skills, I’m not an American. But I used to live in Southern California in the early nineties and I remember Rodney King and the Los Angeles riots like it was yesterday. I remember the grainy video of the beting. I was horrified then, just as I was horrified when I saw the clip that showed how George Floyd was treated and subsequently died. This is not a case of one or two ”rotten apples”. It’s in my opinion systemic.

The topic is whether or not the protests are spreading the virus. The reason politics came into the picture is because it is apparently OK for one group to protest but not the other. Politics should never have been considered by the media, governors, and mayors with regard to heath, but it has and unjustly.

Specializes in Travel, Home Health, Med-Surg.
56 minutes ago, macawake said:

Daisy 4RN, you do write the most peculiar things.

(Quote function’s acting up, but this is one of your rather strange claims) - ->

Why don’t you link the criminological research that shows that cops aren’t racist but that blacks are more prone to violence? What exactly are the ”things” that need to be broken down in order to arrive at this conclusion?The science part of my brain absolutely detests vague claims like the one in the above quote.

As I used to work in law enforcement I have read heaps of criminological ? and I have seen research that shows that socially marginalized and poor people are more likely to commit certain crimes and are certainly more likely to be scrutinised/attract the attention of LEO’s. But I haven’t seen any that shows that the color of ones skin determines the propensity for violence. Do you realize that claiming that people with black skin are more prone to violence than the lily-white among us sounds profoundly racist? If you make a claim like that, I think that you need to support it with evidence.

Typical response, take things out of context and tell someone they are racist (or they sound racist). If ppl read all my posts I think I have made myself clear.

And since you have studied and worked in law enforcement I am sure you know exactly what I am referring to.

Specializes in Travel, Home Health, Med-Surg.
10 minutes ago, macawake said:

On a more serious note. I don’t understand why this thread has turned so partisan. Why are we talking about Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Democratic social policies or even Trump. Granted, the Justice Department under Jeff Sessions haven’t exactly helped advance police reform (think consent decrees), but the problem with excessive use of force by the police, especially towards persons of color, predates the Trump administration.

As evidenced by my abysmal reading comprehension skills, I’m not an American. But I used to live in Southern California in the early nineties and I remember Rodney King and the Los Angeles riots like it was yesterday. I remember the grainy video of the beating. I was horrified then, just as I was horrified when I saw the clip that showed how George Floyd was treated and subsequently died. This is not a case of one or two ”rotten apples”. It’s in my opinion systemic.

Again, if ppl read my posts I believe why we are talking about this is quite clear.

1 hour ago, macawake said:

?

Cannot fail.. Without fail?

Why thank you kind Sir. We do try. Glad you think that we’re successful at arguing our viewpoints in a logical manner. Truth be told, I wasn’t expecting the praise. ?

You took that whole post out of context. Here is what was said...

" 23 hours ago, Daisy4RN said:

Some of you are making giant leaps about me and what I may or may not have ever been through.

You're exactly right. There are some people out there that cannot fail to make a convincing logical argument for their viewpoint. So they have to call those they disagree with as "racist" in an ad hominem attack. And then they say, "I'm done addressing you" as if they are the high-and-mighty arbiters of civility."

By saying " There are some people out there that cannot fail to make a convincing logical argument for their viewpoint." he meant that from their perspective, failure to make their point is not an option. He was not implying that they cannot be wrong. But I think you knew that.

Specializes in Travel, Home Health, Med-Surg.
9 minutes ago, juniper222 said:

You took that whole post out of context. Here is what was said...

" 23 hours ago, Daisy4RN said:

Some of you are making giant leaps about me and what I may or may not have ever been through.

You're exactly right. There are some people out there that cannot fail to make a convincing logical argument for their viewpoint. So they have to call those they disagree with as "racist" in an ad hominem attack. And then they say, "I'm done addressing you" as if they are the high-and-mighty arbiters of civility."

By saying " There are some people out there that cannot fail to make a convincing logical argument for their viewpoint." he meant that from their perspective, failure to make their point is not an option. He was not implying that they cannot be wrong. But I think you knew that.

I agree, but please note my quote in italics is only the first sentence. Just clarifying...

@juniper222

Thank you for posting the link. Daisy made the claim that studies have shown that black persons in certain areas are more prone to violence.

She asked the question if police are racist OR if blacks are more prone to violence. She alluded to studies proving the latter to be true. She hasn’t so far provided such a study, and neither have you. (I’m very curious to see a study design that manages to measure prevalence of police racism and somehow quantify it in relation to the propensity for violence in black people).

I’ve had a look at the link you provided. How do you interpret the data on that page? What do you think it proves?

The same source that you linked reports that the total estimated number of murders in the nation during the year in question, 2018, is 16,214.

The specific table you linked to list (if I added them up correctly) a total of 6,570 murder victims. Both the offenders and victims are reported by race.

I initially thought it was strange that the number of murder victims was ”only” 6,570 when the estimated number of murder victims totals 16,214. Less than half, 40,5%, of murder victims are reported by race.

Then I read the footnote that says that the table is based on incidents where some information about the offender is known by law enforcement. Meaning, when the offender age, sex, race, and ethnicity are all reported as unknown the data are excluded from the table. Then I of course realized that the data is far from complete, since it covers less than half of the estimated number of murders that year.

I checked under Data Collection how the homicide data was gathered. This is how I understand it:

Murder offenses are reported by various law enforcement agencies to the Uniform Crime Reporting Program.

The classification of the crime murder/not-negligent manslaughter is based solely on police investigation. Not on the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury or other judiciell body.

Law enforcement agencies are encouraged to provide supplemental homicide data such as sex, age, race and ethnicity of both the murder victims and the offender as well as the type of weapon used, the relationship of the victim to the offender and the circumstances surrounding the incident.

Law enforcement agencies are asked- but not required - to provide complete supplementary homicide data for each murder they report.

Please feel free to fact check if my reading comprehension has improved since the last time we chatted.

Now to the numbers:

Race of victim/white: 3,315

Race of offender/white: 2,677 Race of offender/black: 514

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Race of victim/black: 2,925

Race of offender/white: 234 Race of offender/black: 2,600

That’s a total of 3,011 white offenders and 3,177 black offenders. (If my match I correct). And this is data from only 40,5% of the estimated number of murders that year.

Not done yet. Work in progress... ?

This is only a data set, not a study. I doubt you will ever see such a study because the point of such would be to prove racism is just, and we all know that is not valid.

It does not make any claims as only a experiment can make claims and not a study. You will also notice that these are only murders where one person murdered another.

According to the data, blacks had the highest numbers and the numbers were significant reducing the percent of error. Also important to note that correlation does not equal causation. There are many lurking variables such as involvement in gangs etc. Also, black on black murder is the highest, not white on black as is often suggested by ignorant individuals.

An interesting topic but we are getting off track..

That was supposed to say *math*, not match. It’s a pain in the you know what to have autocorrect in another language than the one you’re typing in.

Any way.. I’ve come this far, might as well finish what I’ve started.

The data is problematic for several reasons if I’m understanding the data collection correctly. It’s incomplete. Not all murders appear to be reported to this database. The data is vulnerable to bias, including racial bias, since agencies aren’t actually required to provide supplemental homicide data such as for example race of the offender. The classification is based on a police investigation, not on a verdict in a court of law or a medical examiners’ report. And as you’ve correctly noticed, this is only 1-on-1 homicides.

I think the only thing you can reasonably confidently deduce is that white victims are most often murdered by a white offender and a black victim is most often murdered by a black offender. This is supported by other criminological research.

Okay, I think I’ve gone far enough off on this tangent for now. Sorry folks!

Juniper, I realize that your link doesn’t make any claims. It is as you say, a set of data. But Daisy did ask an OR question regarding police racism versus the propensity for violence in black people. I’m still waiting for the study/studies she was claiming has shown this.

Daisy, even IF you could find data that shows that black people commit more violent crimes, it is not because they are genetically more prone to violence because of skin color. I tried to explain in a previous post. There are so many other factors at play. It is just plain racist to suggest that a whole race, or even blacks in certain areas, are more violent.

Specializes in Travel, Home Health, Med-Surg.
1 hour ago, macawake said:

Daisy, even IF you could find data that shows that black people commit more violent crimes, it is not because they are genetically more prone to violence because of skin color. I tried to explain in a previous post. There are so many other factors at play. It is just plain racist to suggest that a whole race, or even blacks in certain areas, are more violent.

Of course there is no study that shows blacks are genetically more violent bc that is obviously not true, and that is not what I said (or meant). But thank you for pointing that out Capt. Obvious. If you read all my posts I think you can see where I am going and that is to help POC not hurt anyone.

I agree there are many factors (as I also pointed out in my other posts) and IMO all those should be looked at in order to solve the problem. Calling (or implying) someone is racist without evidence isn't going to help either, IMO whether it be all cops or just an individual here.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/22/us-police-diversity-racial-disparities-fatal-shootings-study

https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2019/the-truth-behind-racial-disparities-in-fatal-police-shootings/

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/white-cops-dont-commit-more-shootings/

https://scholar.harvard.edu/fryer/publications/empirical-analysis-racial-differences-police-use-force#:~:text=An Empirical Analysis of Racial,Information: Stochastic Control and Indexability#:~:text=An Empirical Analysis of Racial,Information: Stochastic Control and Indexability

There are many differing opinions and even analysis on this issue, more work need to be done for sure.

To even suggest that Daisy is a racist is a personal attack and divisive in nature. I know we can do better than that.

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