Future Market Saturation

zmansc, ASN, RN · Feb 8, 2015

To answer this question properly one would have to accurately model the needs for these four healthcare professions as well as several others that overlap. I doubt any of us could accurately model how the economy, ACA and other changes in healthcare, and politics will affect the needs for our jobs in the next 2, 5, or 10 years to be able to forecast accurately enough what the demand will be in those timeframes.

Having said that I think it is fairly obvious that anytime you double the available graduates to do a job in less than a decade, you are likely creating a surplus and it will take a very flexible job market to be able to absorb that many new entrants into a career field, so yes, it is a concern to me from that perspective. I believe the models that were used to predict the "xxx shortage" be it doctor, RN, or whatever other healthcare provider you want to put in there, were based on assumptions that: 1) Babyboomers were going to retire enmass; 2) We would somehow increase the % of our population that would have access to healthcare; 3) The economy would grow sufficiently to afford these expenses and for our society to continue to provide healthcare like we have.

Certainly we saw what a dip in the economy did to assumptions #1 and #3 for the RN market, and it's just now bouncing back. So after all that, I would say if I had to guess, yes, 2-4 years from now there will be a glut on the market of new grad NPs, but no experienced NPs will not be feeling the pinch yet... unless......

cfinesse19 · Feb 13, 2015

I've been concerned about over saturation as well. It seems as though 80% of the RNs I know are in school for their NP or are in the process of applying to programs. Many of these schools popping up are "for profit" universities that are only interested in collecting tuition and not providing quality education. It is disheartening... I do believe that its difficult to see if there will truly be an oversaturation considering the baby boomers and the new healthcare laws, but it is definitely something to think about..

Anonymous1257 · Feb 18, 2015

Cfinesse19 nailed it, mass production of NPs with substandard training from the profit-first online programs risks flooding the NP profession with individuals that have received substandard training. It could be detrimental to us as a whole in the future.

NursePallasFNP2b · Feb 18, 2015

I think about this too, and I'm still a student. I really don't like how so many online programs have absolutely no cut-off for admitting students- as long as you meet minimum requirements, you're in. What happened to being selective? And most of these schools can't even assist in meeting the preceptor clinical requirements for their students. I won't name my Uni, but my FNP program was/is a very selective hybrid program, and the school does assist in securing preceptors for students. You have to have been an RN prior to entry and you have to have so many hours of RN work, specifically in an acute care setting, prior to being eligible for clinicals.

I don't understand why the ANA or BONs don't do something about is? Is it greed? Has over-saturation ever helped any profession out? I think we'd be respected so much more as a profession if standards were more stringent- like medical school, not just anyone goes to med school. You have to pass an entrance exam, go on interviews etc. I have a sister in PA school and another applying to med schools, and as rigorous as my admission process was, it was nothing like what they had to do.

I think NPs are so wonderful, and as more and more states allow NPs to practice within their full scope, I truly know I made the right choice to further my education and career. I don't want to see it get like how nursing school currently is- A market hyper-saturated with programs, some of which aren't even adequately preparing students for practice. I live in a place that is very saturated with nursing programs. As many of my professors tell it, they watched the starting salary of RNs, in addition to the raises of experienced RNs, decrease because hospitals knew there would always be another job candidate willing to accept whatever pay/raise they offered, just to get their foot in the door. It's an ongoing joke with people where I live that whenever a adult can't find their path in life here, they just become a nurse. It makes me feel bad sometimes, because I worked hard to get through school, and I take pride in my work. I don't want to see this start happening with NPs. Right now, there aren't many NP programs here, and NPs get paid really well and are very respected.

stickit34 · Feb 19, 2015

I couldn't agree with you more. As a FNP student myself, I worked hard to be even able to apply to NP schools. I studied for half a year for my GRE, gained valuable floor, homecare and ambulatory RN experience, and worked tremendously hard in nursing school as well as doing extracurriculars and volunteer work just to get more than a glance at my schools. These online for-profit programs scare me and honestly frustrate me, because other nurses like myself have work our tails off to better ourselves and be the best potential providers while others literally just turn in their transcripts and three letters of recommendation and are instantly NP students. Look at other professions such as engineering, for example. Sure, they have online programs. Do they change or diminish the admissions process for them? Nope. Is it standardized? Yup. Is it selective? Absolutely. Rigorous curriculum? Yup. The end result is (for the most part) competent engineers who practice. Can the NP profession state that? Unfortunately not. And we care for PATIENTS, husbands, wives, daughters, sons!

I'm sorry, I just went off on a rant there. I apologize. Back to the main discussion, yes, there will absolutely be a surplus in the NP profession if there is not action taken to control their numbers. Citing a future demand for NPs is not accounting for the future PAs and MDs who will also be entering the market to care for the aging population. I fear the NP market will soon face the same fate at the RN market, where salaries will decrease and workload will increase. Even if NPs go to rural communities, the market will eventually become saturated.

guest769224 · Feb 19, 2015

I fear the NP market will soon face the same fate at the RN market, where salaries will decrease and workload will increase.

You know, you can control that in an outpatient independent NP practice. An advantage PA's don't have.

Trauma Columnist · Feb 19, 2015

I keep remembering back when I got my ADN (1992) how you would have to have a BSN for entry to practice "soon."

Well, that didn't happen.

I think that yes, the NP market might be tight and the jobs will come down to experienced NPs being hired first. Experience, interviewing skills and networking abilities will all factor into hiring.

And yes, I do think the workload will increase....I know I have seen that over the past 9 years. When I first started (I'm at the same job) I worked maybe 40-45 hrs. Now, I easily work 50-60 hrs.

cmatthe2 · Jun 1, 2017

I agree the market is saturated.Every new RN wants to be an NP. Starting salary for NP is about 75,000. Starting for RN is 65,000 in my area. With shift diff the staff RN actually makes more and has more flexibility in scheduling.I was very disappointed when I graduated with my NP,to know that pretty much every other nurse I work with is either in a NP program or applying to an NP program.The NP's have 5 job opening in our system and 45 open RN positions.This speaks volumes and the new NP's are going to be surprised when they make the same salary with a new student loan debt if they even get a job offer. All they think about is I can prescribe that's it!!!We are chopping our own head off with all these online programs and unlimited seats for NP. I honestly make more as a RN than I do as an NP and there are 50 grads every semester that will be ready to work for less and less.

prelift · Jun 2, 2017

of course it will be saturated. Everybody and their mom dog, cat, and 12 year old child is going back to become an NP so they can don the white coat, stick their noses in the air, make up fake studies of how NP=doctor, and talk down on lowly RNs.

Its so easy anybody that is an RN can do it. At least bedside RNs may pull more money in the future due to everybody being an NP

babyNP., APRN · Jun 2, 2017

I agree the market is saturated.Every new RN wants to be an NP. Starting salary for NP is about 75,000. Starting for RN is 65,000 in my area. With shift diff the staff RN actually makes more and has more flexibility in scheduling.I was very disappointed when I graduated with my NP,to know that pretty much every other nurse I work with is either in a NP program or applying to an NP program.The NP's have 5 job opening in our system and 45 open RN positions.This speaks volumes and the new NP's are going to be surprised when they make the same salary with a new student loan debt if they even get a job offer. All they think about is I can prescribe that's it!!!We are chopping our own head off with all these online programs and unlimited seats for NP. I honestly make more as a RN than I do as an NP and there are 50 grads every semester that will be ready to work for less and less.

Depends on your specialty. We can't hire enough people in neonatology- true of 4 large academic centers in which I've been associated (2 east coast, 1 south west, 1 northwest). As a new RN I made about $65k in a HCOL area. As a new grad NNP in a LCOL area, I made $95k. Now with almost 3 years experience (in an admittedly higher COL area), I'm making $130k with no OT, although if I want it, it's very high paid at $100/hr.

Of course there will be more RN positions than NP positions- there are more RNs needed to staff a hospital than NPs.

Jules A, MSN · Jun 2, 2017

Depends on your specialty. We can't hire enough people in neonatology- true of 4 large academic centers in which I've been associated (2 east coast, 1 south west, 1 northwest). As a new RN I made about $65k in a HCOL area. As a new grad NNP in a LCOL area, I made $95k. Now with almost 3 years experience (in an admittedly higher COL area), I'm making $130k with no OT, although if I want it, it's very high paid at $100/hr.
Of course there will be more RN positions than NP positions- there are more RNs needed to staff a hospital than NPs.

I wonder if part of the difficulty attracting applicants is the low rate of pay? FNPs in this area make that much without anywhere near the level of skill or precarious population you are caring for. There is no way I'd touch those sweet babies for less than $150,000 a year.