Addressing the Predicted Nursing Shortage

There is a predicted nursing shortage coming as the baby boomers continue to retire in droves. Nurses General Nursing Article

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allnurses.com staffers were recently fortunate to interview Audrey Wirth, MSN, RN-BC, CVRN-BC adjunct clinical instructor at Aurora University's School of Nursing and Allied Health. She has published in the Journal of Nursing Administration and Nursing.com as well as a presentation training the trainer for end of life care. We discussed the predicted nursing shortage.

According to the latest (2017) HRSA report regarding supply and demand:

- Looking at each state's 2030 RN supply minus its 2030 demand reveals both shortages and surpluses in RN workforce in 2030 across the United States. Projected differences between each state's 2030 supply and demand range from a shortage of 44,500 FTEs in California to a surplus of 53,700 FTEs in Florida.

- If the current level of health care is maintained, seven states are projected to have a shortage of RNs in 2030, with four of these states having a deficit of 10,000 or more FTEs, including California (44,500 FTEs), Texas (15,900 FTEs), New Jersey (11,400 FTEs) and South Carolina (10,400 FTEs).

- States projected to experience the largest excess supply compared to demand in 2030 include Florida (53,700 FTEs) followed by Ohio (49,100 FTEs), Virginia (22,700 FTEs) and New York (18,200 FTEs).

With the ever increasing costs of college, how would you convince a young just graduated from high school person to commit to a nursing education?

A college education is an investment. It is an investment in oneself and in one's future. A simple ROI (return on investment) conversation would quickly silence this concern. With diligent financial planning and discipline post-graduation, student loans can be paid off rather quickly. I would also discourage a student's parents from paying for their child's education, as this can delay their own retirement. An education can be financed, a retirement cannot.

As for committing to nursing specifically, first of all, I believe nursing is a calling. Nursing is not a profession for everyone. The student must show true and compassionate interest in the field. Once this was evident, I would vouch for what a career in nursing has to offer. Some benefits include a very flexible schedule, opportunity to pick up extra shifts for extra money, and later on the possibility of advancing into the business and management side of nursing if desired. There are also nursing positions such as school nurses, which would match schedules with the nurse's children, allowing for optimal family balance and avoidance of childcare costs. Furthermore, there are even work at home opportunities in nursing that may prove ideal for some individuals throughout various stages in their life.

Above all, the best reason to go into nursing is making a difference for your patients and having an impact on their health, comfort, and well-being. The reward of helping fellow humans through some of the best and worst times in their life is one that cannot be quantified. Personally, I choose to continue having a bedside presence while teaching nursing for this very reason. The positive humanistic reward is immensely indescribable.

AN recently reported on this topic in our Student Survey: Demographics

As the nursing population ages, many nurses are not BSN-prepared. What do you see as incentives that hospitals could offer in order to "grow their own" BSN nurses?

In my experience, there are two main barriers for ADN (Associate Degree in Nursing) nurses to continue on to their BSN, the first being the cost of the degree and the second being the time to complete it. Many nurses have home life commitments such as children, spouses, adult parents they may be caring for etc. Hospitals can offer a salary incentive to their nurses if they hold a BSN degree or higher. They can also offer tuition reimbursement to their employees predicated on their completion of the degree and a defined employment retention period. If hospitals considered not only paying for the degree but offering to pay the nurses their hourly wage for their classroom time, they would likely have more interest. If the degree was integrated into their nurses' normal weekly schedule, then there would be virtually no reason for the nurses not to complete the degree. It could fall under an education budget.

Above all, hospitals need to convey the reasoning and rationale for encouraging nurses to continue their education. The WIIFM (What's In It For Me) factor of a BSN degree could include gaining knowledge of research article interpretation and leading, disseminating, and integrating evidence-based best practices to their area of nursing. Another would be acquiring knowledge specific to nursing leadership and management. Some nurses may disclose having no interest in climbing the management ladder, however, understanding the avenues of leadership and the organizational structure is still important if one wants to influence change.

If nurses want to have an impact, they need to understand the processes behind the scenes of a hospital. For example, if a unit manager brings a change to his/her staff, part of gaining the staff's buy-in is helping them to understand why the change is being brought upon them. If a nurse has an understanding of how a nursing unit is managed, funded, staffed, etc. then the nurse will likely see the proposed change as making sense and will have a true understanding of the "Why".

Along that same line, what steps could hospitals take to engage and retain older, more experienced nurses that perhaps would like to continue working bedside but on a part-time or PRN basis?

Bedside nursing can be quite demanding, both physically and mentally. Oftentimes, aging nurses may struggle to meet the physical demands of bedside nursing. Offering shorter and less frequent shifts may help with this. Developing clinical nurse specialist roles where senior nurses can mentor and guide younger nurses through chart reviews, bedside assessments, etc. is a way to keep them and their expertise at the bedside, but also pass it along to novice nurses.

With the ever-increasing physician shortage, NPs are becoming the primary care provider in many areas, especially the rural ones. How would you propose to keep BSN nurses at the bedside versus continuing their education?

In all honesty, I would never encourage any nurse not to advance their education. I believe this would be shooting our profession in the foot. Mid-level providers are an excellent avenue for healthcare and when partnered with a physician practice they have proven to have better patient outcomes. Instead, I would encourage young nurses to pursue their BSN degree from the start of their college education. Many nursing schools are turning away qualified applicants because they do not have the faculty capacity to teach more students. So, I believe we should be looking here, at the potential student nurse population to grow the number of bedside nurses. If we want to grow the population of nurses, we need more nursing faculty.

What are you seeing in your area? Is it easy to get a nursing job? Difficult? Have you thought about furthering your education?

Tacomaboy3 said:
I don't quite understand the dissident when it comes to pursuing a BSN, or at least increasing the proportion of BSN-prepared RNs. Does it make you a better and more skillful registered nurse? That's debatable, but the commenters on the post seem to think not.

I think pursuing higher levels of academic education is a great thing, and it's really only those who do who really impact the profession in nursing research and policy.

Mad about wasting your time on unnecessary classes? Big whoop. You think lawyers and physicians are better in their fields because they took an Underwater Basketweaving class in undergrad? No. But those are the academic hoops you gotta jump through. EVERY SINGLE person who's earned a bachelor's degree has likely taken a course unrelated to their major or profession of choice. Pull up those big girl panties. Nursing school isn't trade - it's a profession.

OK stable genius, that's cute. On a side, lawyers and physicians actually see financial returns on their educational investments. Nurses do not. So, put on your adult underpants honey... then, go to the library like us COBs did waaaay back when, and brush up on history and evolution of nursing. You're doing this trade-profession a disservice by dismissing negative trends and telling others to basically shut up and drink up the poison. Nursing is a trade-profession, open a textbook and review its history. No one is declaring that extended education is valueless. All education is valuable. I should know I have 3 degrees. If I was independently wealthy I'd obtain more (degrees). The crux of most people's discord with the push for mandatory BScN is that it's an irrationally formalized requirement that doesn't match employment trends or translate into real world skills. Moreover, the promise that a BScN degree will pay off rests on some questionable assumptions. Many BScN graduates have yet to earn back on their investment, and many stats demonstrate they may never earn the value back over a lifetime. One important caveat is that it is the norm to go into exorbitant debt on one's education: just ask the hundreds of thousands of nursing graduates who have not found work as nurses, or those suffering with precarious employment trends... or borrowers who are either crippled by student loan payments or have defaulted their federal student loans within a few years of graduating. The BScN is not required to perform nursing skills. The detraction from hands-on clinical skill in favour of increased theoretical study does not solve or improve any of the increasingly disturbing issues we're seeing emerge in nursing.

Many nurses would not react so strongly against obtaining more and more education if it actually translated into improving the quality of their work, employment options, and increased income. What we're seeing is a push towards higher and higher credentials, at increasingly unaffordable costs to nurses with no employment guarantees to earn back on their investment. Nurses are not martyrs, and to encourage nurses to martyr themselves and risk poverty is asinine. It is in the "bean counters" interest to push towards inflating enrollment because education is a big bu$iness that theyre reaping most of the benefits from, just ask all the struggling nursing graduates. If they want to declare a new credentials standard, when research/reality are increasingly showing it's a low return investment... yes, then hospitals/facilities should pay or at the very least subsidize part of it. Forcing people to go into debt to obtain more credentials (which aren't required to perform the job) for imaginary employment is ludicrous.

 

The sentiment being communicated to nurses (by corporations, hospitals, academia) is that they have no interest in making things better, nor are they making tangible efforts to make things better. Instead, they're basically saying...The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Specializes in Pediatrics Retired.
Tacomaboy3 said:

Mad about wasting your time on unnecessary classes? Big whoop. You think lawyers and physicians are better in their fields because they took an Underwater Basketweaving class in undergrad? No. But those are the academic hoops you gotta jump through.

These hoops you refer to are the problem...slop required by the students to provide on which the academia hogs feed yet contribute nothing but convincing others of their intelligence and importance for their contributions to the profession. Gag me!!

Specializes in Pediatrics Retired.
CaffeinePOQ4HPRN said:
Oh that's cute. Put on your adult pants honey... then, go to the library like us COBs did waaaay back when, and brush up on history and evolution of nursing. You're doing this trade-profession a disservice by dismissing negative trends and telling others to basically shut up and drink up the poison. Nursing is a trade-profession, open a textbook and review its history. No one is declaring that extended education is valueless. All education is valuable. I should know I have 3 degrees. If I was independently wealthy I'd obtain more (degrees). The crux of most people's discord with the push for mandatory BScN is that it's an irrationally formalized requirement that doesn't match employment trends or translate into real world skills. Moreover, the promise that a BScN degree will pay off rests on some questionable assumptions. Many BScN graduates have yet to earn back on their investment, and many stats demonstrate they may never earn the value back over a lifetime. One important caveat is that it is the norm to go into exorbitant debt on one's education: just ask the hundreds of thousands of nursing graduates who have not found work as nurses, or those suffering with precarious employment trends... or borrowers who are either crippled by student loan payments or have defaulted their federal student loans within a few years of graduating. The BScN is not required to perform nursing skills. The detraction from hands-on clinical skill in favour of increased theoretical study does not solve or improve any of the increasingly disturbing issues we're seeing emerge in nursing.

The sentiment being communicated to nurses (by corporations, hospitals, academia) is that they have no interest in making things better, nor are they making tangible efforts to make things better. Instead...The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Caffeine, you and I need to sit on the beach and have a few beers.

Specializes in M/S, LTC, Corrections, PDN & drug rehab.

I plan on bridging on to receive my ASN. But after that I certainly have no desire to get my BSN. As long as I'm an RN, I'm happy.

I have yet to see any true shortage. Of course there are areas that need nurses & will always need experienced nurses but I don't see any real shortage.

Specializes in Nephrology, Cardiology, ER, ICU.
Oldmahubbard said:
Some 30 years ago, I was considering nursing as a second career. After having found the job market ridiculous in my first career (teaching).

I went to see some male professor about a related program, and he said that there would be no "nursing shortage" if all the nurses were still in the field. This was 1989.

Then, as now, most of the "shortage" is night shift, and weekend work.

Just food for thought. I became an NP, so there you have it.

As an APRN (CNS) I work far more than when I was a nurse: I have more responsibility and I'm becoming quickly convinced that being salaried stinks - LOL

Specializes in Nephrology, Cardiology, ER, ICU.
Tacomaboy3 said:
I don't quite understand the dissident when it comes to pursuing a BSN, or at least increasing the proportion of BSN-prepared RNs. Does it make you a better and more skillful registered nurse? That's debatable, but the commenters on the post seem to think not.

I think pursuing higher levels of academic education is a great thing, and it's really only those who do who really impact the profession in nursing research and policy.

Mad about wasting your time on unnecessary classes? Big whoop. You think lawyers and physicians are better in their fields because they took an Underwater Basketweaving class in undergrad? No. But those are the academic hoops you gotta jump through. EVERY SINGLE person who's earned a bachelor's degree has likely taken a course unrelated to their major or profession of choice. Pull up those big girl panties. Nursing school isn't trade - it's a profession.

My take on the BSN education is: if you are already an experienced bedside ADN or diploma grad, getting a BSN isn't going to make you a better bedside nurse. However, it will make you more employable as more hospitals seek Magnet status. The MSN on the other hand, does add to your solid nursing education. Again it makes you more employable.

Specializes in Nephrology, Cardiology, ER, ICU.
I plan on bridging on to receive my ASN. But after that I certainly have no desire to get my BSN. As long as I'm an RN, I'm happy.

I have yet to see any true shortage. Of course there are areas that need nurses & will always need experienced nurses but I don't see any real shortage.

I started as an LPN because hubby was active duty and we moved every 2 years. However, I quickly realized that I was very limited in my scope of practice and job opportunities were quite limited also. So, back to school. As an ADN grad (I graduated in 1994), an RN was an RN. However, nowadays with the continued push by hospitals for Magnet status and the emphasis on having a BSN as entry level, it is becoming harder for ADN RNs to advance past the bedside. Nursing is a second career for me - I graduated when I was in my early 30's and thought I would be a bedside nurse forever - absolutely loved it. However, I found (as you too might find) that as I got older, it was a lot harder. So again, back to school for more options.

There is no reason to go deep in debt to become a Nurse. I started my educational / career track at a Community College. It was cheap and gave me the education I needed to become an RN. I remember going through orientation years ago and talking with other new nurses hired at the same hospital who went to four years schools and had many thousands of dollars in student loans and then getting & doing the same job for the same pay as I. Once hired I picked on online state school and went as my educational funding from work would allow. In a couple years of "nursing education" which largely consisted of group finger-painting projects like (no lie) "how would you develop an emergency plan in the event of a nuclear war" and "how would you integrate an African family into a rural Pennsylvania Community" I got my BSN. A few years down the road I was encouraged to apply for funding to get my DNP and become a Nurse Practitioner. I'm working on that now. I would never consider paying many thousands of dollars to get an OK paying job as it simply makes no financial sense.

Then there is the "quality" of nursing education. At the basic level they actually teach you how to do a job and that is very valuable. I have few negative comments about my experience at Community College. We had hard classes directly applicable to our future jobs with hard tests and a ton of clinical hours. Many if not most people failed out. Just about everybody that made it passed the boards right out of the chute. However, my real education on how to be a functioning nurse happened at work. The daily learning experience of taking care of patients first on a surgical step down unit & then for many years in an ER.

The BSN program was simply a joke. Online discussions about pointless nonsense. Projects that were pointless. Simply a waste of time. I have a buddy in the ER that summed it up perfectly when he said "why can't we just give them a check and have them give us a degree". Note I'm not saying this from bitterness as I knew that I might want to attend grad school when I went through this exercise of nonsense and got a 4.0 qpa.

My DNP studies are a mixed bag. I go to a traditional bricks and mortar school that has been producing NP's for decades. The initial part of the program with the classes attached to clinical experiences was fantastic. We had hard classes and very tough tests that linked up with 1300 hours of supervised clinical hours. I feel this education has primed me to take on a new role as a practitioner. However, the nonclinical classes were a mixed bag. Many of these diverted back to the predictable group projects and presentations about nothing of particular interest and consisted of a ton of busy work that frankly I've already forgot. My biggest criticism is the CAPSTONE part of the educational model. This project in my opinion is an exercise of waste. We do things we are not going to do as a practitioner primarily constructing a statistical analysis of a question related to nursing. Please go online and read some of these published articles and tell me what you think they contribute to the profession. Long & short of it, I believe that instead of spending a year focusing on some study that will almost certainly go unread perhaps we could take that tremendous investment of educational resources and student time and apply them to more hands-on clinical experience that may have some relevance in the real world. I don't believe that doctors spend almost a year of med school fussing over some glorified term paper because they are too busy learning how to treat sick folks. We should be also.

As far as the nursing shortage, all economics in life come down to what's in an individual's bank account. I've never known nurses to have a hard time finding employment in the local Pittsburgh area and we have a ton of schools producing a ton of graduates. I myself went to exactly one job fair and was hired within an hour with the Hospital system I still work for. However, if the market dictates then apparently some of our graduates may have to move to areas that don't have enough nurses. Welcome to the real world Nurses. That's what every other profession & trade faces. You go where the work is. Not exactly a new phenomenon in the employment / economics history of the world.

These hoops you refer to are the problem...slop required by the students to provide on which the academia hogs feed yet contribute nothing but convincing others of their intelligence and importance for their contributions to the profession. Gag me!!

Given that there's no good research showing BSN prepared nurses provide care resulting in better outcomes, I too have been racking my brain to figure out why the push. The only consistent rationale I can find is that the BSN prepares nurses for leadership roles, in which case I say let those who want those roles go for the BSN. To the bedside nurse, the BSN hoops are just more evidence of management's ever increasing arbitrary and burdensome requirements.

My cynical side - given to morbid humor - says the BSN push is a retention conspiracy to keep nurses in a given organization if only to pay off the BSN loans. Keep the prices at the company store high enough and force workers to shop there, and workers in effect become indentured servants.

Totally agree with SpankedInPittsburgh.

Nursing school debate aside, the so-called 'shortage' is regional. It's noticeable where I live. It'd be nice if the states would give incentives to move to underserved areas, loan forgiveness, etc. Not gonna happen. Our nurses will just keep moving out to Cali.

Is it the BSN that makes the better outcomes or the population of nurses who get their BSN that leads to better outcomes? Perhaps this population of nurses is more interested in their jobs and advancing their career and as such are simply better nurses with or without a BSN. I don't know the answer to that question but I think its at least worth pondering.

There is no reason to go deep in debt to become a Nurse. I started my educational / career track at a Community College. It was cheap and gave me the education I needed to become an RN. I remember going through orientation years ago and talking with other new nurses hired at the same hospital who went to four years schools and had many thousands of dollars in student loans and then getting & doing the same job for the same pay as I. Once hired I picked on online state school and went as my educational funding from work would allow. In a couple years of "nursing education" which largely consisted of group finger-painting projects like (no lie) "how would you develop an emergency plan in the event of a nuclear war" and "how would you integrate an African family into a rural Pennsylvania Community" I got my BSN. A few years down the road I was encouraged to apply for funding to get my DNP and become a Nurse Practitioner. I'm working on that now. I would never consider paying many thousands of dollars to get an OK paying job as it simply makes no financial sense.

There is no reason to go deep in debt to become a Nurse? When did you do your BSN? I don't mean to come across as a *****, but your statement makes it appear as if you're lacking awareness. That statement is also grossly naïve and makes me question whether you understand the issues affecting nursing outside of your backyard. If people had other financial recourse/ options I doubt they would succumb to the overall risks of taking out a student loan to pay for education.

In the current economy and state of inflation, people don't get to negotiate paying thousands of dollars on education to get an OK paying job. It has become status quo and younger generations are literally paying the price. It certainly makes no financial sense, but when institutions are pushing towards BScN/BSN and higher credentials (some jobs are now pushing for MSN as the minimum requirement, plus 5 years of recent experience int the specialty of the advertised job) for the same position, or a restructured position (oft with no benefits or job security)... to survive people are left with no option but to make huge financial sacrifices to obtain more education...Even though it's not required to perform the job. It's not like changing specialties (ex. going from Cardiology to NICU) where additional, specialized education/training is required for the role... we're talking about nurses being told that for them to continue to be competitive in the same role, they must get the BScN/BSN degree (composed mostly of theoretical courses) that adds nothing to their skillet or technical competence.

Also, exclusively online nursing education is not a delivered format in Canada. It is required here that the majority of your time is spent sitting in a physical classroom, and minimum period to complete this is 3 additional years. If there was an exclusively online option I would've completed my BScN from the comfort of my home after work, in my sweet sweet sweatpants. I am sure many people would if it were an option. Also, employers here do not pay for our continuing education... so :uhoh3:. There are bursaries, but there are few and they barely cover the cost of a 6 credit (or higher) course. We have one school that offers distance education for diploma nurses wanting to bridge to the degree (it's in one province and requires out-of-province nurse-applicants to hold dual licensure. Added dollars) and this one school still requires in-person clinical placements to be completed. Also, you pay per credit for this particular school and gov't loans don't cover less than a full-time course-load; the cheapest credit you will pay for starts between $795-1200 for one 3-6 credit course respectively. Multiply those costs by the 120 credits required to graduate. I'm not sure how long ago you completed your BSN or where you completed it, but your circumstance don't reflect the current reality that most nurses are facing. I know this because I see it everyday in my students and in every cohort (I work for a Canadian University, btw). If people had cost effective, convenient options in this current economy to complete/advance their nursing education/credentials they'd be doing it.

The reality is that most nurses are rushing back to school to get their BScN/BSN and returning to the job market to face this same old **** again and being told to get more educaiton for the job they got the advanced credentials for in the first place (see images below), and then rushing back to school to get their masters out of desperation to improve their circumstances, then their NP and so on. A sad truth is most nurses are nerds and like to learn, and if such difficult barriers didn't exist most would obtain higher education without question. There simply has been no return on the investment and it doesn't add a skill-set, so it makes little sense to take ona loan to do a BScN/BSN out of interest. Unfortunately, nurses are humans and need resources like money to provide themselves with shelter and sustenance, so sometimes obtaining higher education has to take a backseat so one can eat and/or take care of dependents. I'm extremely passionate about having shelter and sustenance, so I'm not about to martyr myself anymore to participate in job market peek-a-boo with the Emperor's New Clothes. It's not about making excuses, it's about being rational that nurses are human beings who have real needs and sadly some experience barriers preventing them from seamlessly being able to jump through all these hoops at their own expen$e. At some point this has to STOP! This is illustrating an artificial nurse shortage that is being created before our very eyes, and systemically they are forcing us to create this shortage... because nurses are rushing back to school to "level up" their credentials, and thus leaving less and less of us at the bedside. Canada is dealing with this by courting IENs to come because they figure they'll complain less, put up with the poor working conditions. I've watched this strategy unfold, and even been told this by academicians and nurse managers. They're all unattractive truths, but they're truths. Getting the BScN/BSN and MSN and NP are not going to correct these problems, in a way they're being used as a distraction. We are swelling with plenty of qualified nurses who want to work. There is no shortage, there will be no shortage. The "bean counters" just won't hire enough of them.

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