Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

Published

Due to circumstances beyond my control, computer glitch (?), the length

of the former thread (Thread 2), and the tremendous amount of new

information coming in at this time, it is probably necessary to start a new

thread on Avian Influenza Awareness.

I pulled out the following commentary from an earlier thread regarding

a rather chilling video (at least to me), given by Dr. Margaret Chan. The

information is not current as the video was shot in February 2007, but

what she has to say is still pertinent considering how much further the

spread of H5N1 has grown. It is now on three continents with a CFR (case

fatality rate) for human beings of over 60%. It is still however, primarily

a bird disease, but that may be changing.

From Margaret Chan MD, Director-General of the World Health Organization:

I did not attend the CIDRAP Conference in February, 2007 where this video

was shown. I almost got there, but changed my plans at the last minute.

Dr. Chan will appear in a screen to your right. You do not have to press

any buttons, just wait for the screen to appear, and for her presentation

to begin. You do not have to be a subscriber for the video to play.

Just be patient for a few seconds and view it.

I have to say that even though everything Dr. Chan is saying in this

presentation is well known to me, just hearing her speak so

clearly and honestly of what might occur, has shaken me. Though

many who research this information will say that her estimates

of the possible future cases may be too conservative, the numbers are

still hugh. This event will change the world, and challenge all of us.

The video will take 16 minutes of your time. I hope that the

very serious nature of Dr. Chan's message will cut thru the apathy and

disbelief about the possibility of H5N1 triggering the next pandemic,

and encourage some individual planning and family preparation.

Share it with people that you care about.

https://umconnect.umn.edu/chan

(hat tip crofsblog)

Specializes in Too many to list.

A series of great commentary from Avian Flu Diary,

Thanks, Mike:

Poultry Sales Banned in West Bengal, India

Can you imagine not being able to buy chicken for dinner?

Well, until further notice, you can't in this part of India.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/west-bengal-bans-sale-and-consumption.html

The Big Deal About Bird Flu

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/big-deal-about-bird-flu.html

India's Risky Culling Procedures

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/india-risky-culling-procedures.html

There are rules, guidelines, even protocols of course. But according to the BBC, they are being ignored.

If human infections don't arise out of these culling teams, it won't be for lack of trying.

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From Effect Measure with permission:

Bird flu: Bangladesh behaving badly

Bangladesh is a country with more than its share of woes. Now there is H5N1 galloping through its poultry. Bangladesh needs all the help it can get. Which also means it needs to help others, too. How can a resource poor country like Bangladesh help other nations? They can start by sharing the genetic sequences of the viruses isolated from their poultry:

Bangladesh has refused to share the genetic details of its H5N1 bird flu virus with India. In a blow to India's efforts to find the origin of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain that is presently wreaking havoc in West Bengal, Bangladesh has informed the external affairs ministry that they are "yet to genetically sequence the H5N1 virus strain circulating there".

In a communication to MEA, Bangladesh has said the virus sequencing is still "under way in a lab in UK", and that it would therefore "not be able to share any virus related information" till the final reports arrive.

However, a senior animal husbandry ministry official told TOI on condition of anonymity: "We know for a fact that Bangladesh completed genetic sequencing of its virus as early as in mid-2007. The OIE Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza in Weybridge, UK, has completed the sequencing. The lab officials can't divulge the details till Bangladesh agrees to share the information." (Times of India)

Of course one can be sure of very little when it comes to India accusing Bangladesh or Pakistan of something or the reverse. Behaving badly is the norm when it comes to neighbors in this part of the world, but I can't help but surmise India is right. It is not plausible that Bangladesh doesn't have the genetic sequences. India's suspicions as to the reason they have not been divulged is probably also correct: they show that the current outbreak in India may be the result of illegal poultry trade in bordering Bangladesh.

I don't know what the consequences of such a demonstration would be for Bangladesh, but in terms of reputation, failure to share the sequences is sufficiently damaging in itself.

Bangladesh has enough misery imposed on it by forces it can't control. This is one it can control. Time to behave properly.

The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and practitioners. Paul Revere was a member of the first local Board of Health in the United States (Boston, 1799). The Editors sign their posts "Revere" to recognize the public service of a professional forerunner better known for other things.

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India and How Not to Find Human Cases of Bird Flu

There have been staggering numbers of infected birds there,

and many, many people exposed, but of course there are no

positive human cases of H5N1 in India. How can that be?

Well for one thing, because they are using the wrong test...

Now how are they getting away with this, and why isn't the WHO calling

them on it?

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02050805/H5N1_India_False.html

It is unclear why blood samples are being used, since PCR, sequencing, and viral isolation tests use swabs, usually from the nose or throat. H5N1 has rarely been isolated from blood samples, and isolation is usually from advanced patients. Detecting H5N1 in blood samples from patients on Tamiflu would be difficult.

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CDC Expert: Flu pandemic looks likely

The likelihood of an influenza pandemic within the next five to 10 years is "very high," according to an expert with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"We have already seen cases of human-to-human transmission (of avian flu). We're one step from a pandemic," Dr. Sureyya Hornston told the Gainesville Rotary Club Monday. "I hate to sound pessimistic, but I have to tell you the truth." . . . .

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The Spread of Bird Flu to Urban Bangladesh

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/b2b-bird-flu-spreads-to-urban.html

Given its rapid geographic spread across the rural areas of Bangladesh, it was just a matter of time before bird flu reached the urban areas of Dhaka and Chittagong. The two cities have a combined population of just under 11 million people.

25% of Indonesian Cases Have Unknown Mode of Transmission

This is a hugh concern to scientists there and elsewhere.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/indonesian-scientists-baffled-by.html

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Specializes in IM/Critical Care/Cardiology.

The parish nursing committee at my church has started to make available lists of supplies and informational data available to the parish members, and it is taking off pretty well.

I can only hope others will follow.

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Radio Sandy Springs Interview

Podcast radio interview with Sharon Sanders, president of FluTrackers.com, at this link from Feb 4, 2007:

http://www.radiosandysprings.com/infectiousdiseases.php

In the one hour interview Sharon discusses the contributions of the FluTrackers forum in tracking avian influenza and our current understanding of the parameters of a potential pandemic.

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Crow Deaths in Multiple Locations of Bangladesh

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53277

Although the crows have been confirmed in multiple areas of Bangladesh, including regions bordering West Bengal, India has yet to confirm H5N1 in any of the dead wild and migratory birds found in association with confirmed H5N1 in poultry.

The widespread H5N1 in poultry and wild birds, including major urban areas, remain causes for concern.

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The parish nursing committee at my church has started to make available lists of supplies and informational data available to the parish members, and it is taking off pretty well.

I can only hope others will follow.

I hope so too. Many churches are preparing their congregations in

my area.

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Australia Gives the US an Unwelcome Present

What is missing from this year's flu shot in the US?

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2008/2/6/australia-gives-the-us-an-unwelcome-present.html

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Power Outages

In a severe pandemic, we can expect power outages and fuel shortages. John Ruwitch describes three days he spent in Chenzhou, a city that was without power for nearly two weeks.

WITNESS: Reporting in the dark in icy New Year China

by John Ruwitch

CHENZHOU, China (Reuters) - I stepped nervously from the over-crowded sleeper onto the frigid platform with no hotel, no contacts and no plan other than to find out what it was like to be in a city of 4 million in the midst of a 12-day blackout....

I headed to a hotel that a motorcycle driver said had power and was offered a cup of hot water at an empty dentist's office with a diesel generator chugging away on the sidewalk outside. ...

The dentist's tap had water because it was on the first floor, he explained. Those higher up weren't so lucky because there hasn't been enough pressure in the city pipes. Most of them had to haul water upstairs by the bucket....

I spent an afternoon with a prominent Chenzhou resident looking for fuel. Two stations we passed had dozens of cars queuing. A third was closed. Through connections, he finally secured a 25 kg (25 liters or 6.6 gallons) jug full. "I had to fight for it!" said the middle-aged man....

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL0643568720080207?sp=true

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unanticipated consequences - india

now, shuttlecocks catch bird flu

in what can only be called bizarre, india's preparatory camp for badminton's thomas and uber cup qualifiers, due to begin in goa on wednesday, was cancelled because of a lack of shuttlecocks and procedural delays. the shuttlecocks aren't available because the union agriculture ministry has banned the import of feathers due to bird flu.

vikram dhar, country manager of yonex sunrise india (which makes the shuttlecocks), said they were helpless, as the ministry had banned the entry of bird feathers from china. ...

http://www.hindustantimes.com/storypage/fullcoveragestorypage.aspx?id=ade8fad9-de42-442a-97fa-e77c063d2f8cbirdfluhitsindia_special&&headline=now%2c+shuttlecocks+catch+bird+flu

in may of 2006, a shuttlecock maker in east java contracted h5n1 presumably through handling poultry feathers on the job.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=13658&postcount=31

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