Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

incredibly, the controversy still continues over whether or not migratory

birds are involved in spreading h5n1. it would seem that just pcr

analysis of viral specimens would be enough to resolve this argument,

but since many specimens have never been released perhaps this is

why the denial goes on and on.

there is another reason to read this commentary, however. it makes

note of an important change that h5n1 has made that allows it to infect

people more easily.

with permission from dr. niman at recombinomics:

long range h5n1 transport and transmission by migratory birds

recombinomics commentary 20:41

january 24, 2008

"we know that some wild birds have probably moved short distances carrying viruses and then they died, but we have not been able to identify carriage of h5n1 across large scale spatial distances and then resulting in spread to other birds and mortality in poultry flocks," newman told reuters.

he said fecal tests on some 350,000 healthy birds worldwide had to date only yielded "a few" positive h5n1 results.

furthermore, in instances and places where wild birds were found with the disease, there were no concurrent outbreaks of the virus in poultry.

"so we don't have at this point in time a wildlife reservoir for h5n1 ... so they can't be a main spreader of the disease," newman said.

the above comments on negative data on testing of fecal samples from live wild birds are remarkable. the fatally flawed approach was used over two years ago in mongolia, when wild bird deaths were reported at the remote erhel lake. the failure to detect h5n1 in the live birds at the lake left little doubt that the approach was flawed. now two and half years and 350,000 tests later, these data are used to “prove” that migratory birds are not the major transport and transmission vehicle of h5n1 in the 50 countries reporting h5n1 since the outbreaks in the spring and summer of 2005.

the role of the migratory birds was really decided in the summer of 2005, when false negatives were being generated at erhel lake. in the spring of 2005, h5n1 was found in long range migratory birds at qinghai lake in central china. the h5n1 reported was a novel variant, which had unique genetic features, including the acquisition of a “human” change in one of the enzymes used to copy the viral genome. this change pb2 e627k was a concern because it had never been reported in h5n1 from a bird, and the change allowed the virus to replicate more rapidly at 33 c, the temperature of a human nose or throat in the winter. since the body temperature of a bird is 41 c, the “human” change slowed down the replication of the virus in birds. however, the h5n1 could still be quite lethal, since 5,000-10,000 wild birds died at qinghai lake.

the high number of deaths raised the possibility that the strain would “burn out” at the lake. however, qinghai lake is the largest lake in china and attracts a large number of species of birds, so when h5n1 was reported at chany lake in southern siberia, which was 2,000 miles from qinghai lake, the role of long range migratory birds was becoming clearer. prior to the summer outbreak at chany lake, russia had never reported highly pathogenic h5n1, so the wild birds were the prime suspect.

h5n1 was isolated from a healthy grebe, and the sequence was the qinghai strain. thus, at that point there was little doubt about the role of wild birds in the transport to chany lake, and the transmission to nearby poultry in russia and kazakhstan.

any doubt that remained was removed by a similar, almost simultaneous outbreak at erhel lake in mongolia. like russia and kazakhstan, mongolia had also never reported h5n1 prior to the summer of 2005. when wild birds began to die at the remote lake, conservation groups joined in the study. these groups initially said that the bird deaths couldn’t be due to h5n1 because there were fewer than 100 dead birds. when initial results of h5 came back, they again maintained that the h5 would not be from h5n1 because there were not enough dead birds. then when the h5 was determined to be from qinghai h5n1, the conservation groups said h5n1would not pose a problem because the live birds at the lake tested negative for h5n1.

at that point it was clear that the qinghai h5n1 had the potential of causing greater problems because it was killing a small number of birds. thus, it was more likely that live birds would transport the h5n1. the failure to detect the h5n1 in live birds in an area where dead birds were h5n1 positive, signaled a fatally flawed assay.

in siberia, the number of reports of h5n1 in wild birds continued to grow during the summer, signaling further spread in the fall when the wild birds would head south. the potential for spread was great, because chany lake and other small lakes in southern siberia or northern kazakhstan hosted a large number of waterfowl in the summer, and these locations were in intersecting flyways, so the h5n1 could fly off in several directions. the flyways predicted that the h5n1 would move into europe, the middle east, and africa in the ensuing months, which happened.

although none of the countries west of china had previously reported h5n1, the reports began in the fall of 2005. h5n1 was found in mute swans near the volga delta, at the northern end of the caspian sea. that was followed by h5n1 in mute swans in the danube delta on the western shores of the black sea, which was followed by h5n1 in wild birds in the crimea peninsula, which juts out into the black sea, which was followed by h5n1 in a healthy teal in the nile delta at the end of 2005.

although h5n1 was reported in wild waterfowl at the above locations, countries in the eu denied h5n1 infections, as did countries in the middle east and africa through the end of 2005. however, after h5n1 caused human fatalities in eastern turkey at the beginning of 2006, h5n1 was widely reported at all of the above locations in february and march of 2006. moreover, all h5n1 reported was the qinghai strain of h5n1, although there were regional differences in sequences, reflecting independent introductions by wild birds.

in the summer of 2006, the cycle repeated. this time there was a massive wild bird h5n1 outbreak at the largest lake in mongolia, uva lake near the russia / mongolia border. most countries again denied h5n1 infections in the fall of 2006 and early 2007, but in the summer of 2007, h5n1 was found in multiple wild bird outbreaks in germany, the czech republic, and france. in all cases the h5n1 was the uva lake strain, which was a variant of the qinghai strain.

the outbreaks in the summer in europe signaled more activity in the fall and winter, which happened, and all reports in europe have been the uva lake strain.

thus, the role of wild birds in the transport and transmission of h5n1 in europe, the middle east, and africa is quite clear, fatally flawed live wild bird screening notwithstanding.

http://www.recombinomics.com/news/01240803/h5n1_migration.html

thank you, dr. niman. case closed.

Reading some of these reports is like watching a horror movie. It is very

difficult to take in that this is what is happening in these countries affected by

H5N1.

Bangladesh

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/01/bangladesh-400.html

http://southasia.oneworld.net/article/view/157214/1/1893

Crows in Dinajpur town and its adjacent areas are dying in large numbers while at least 4,700 poultry birds were culled in the district as they were infected with bird flu.

Locals and district livestock officials said over 400 crows died in the last two days in the town and are rotting in the open, our Dinajpur correspondent reports.

Nepal

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/01/indian-poultry.html

They are talking about the bird flu threat escalating in Nepal, but it would not

be surprising to find that it is already present in the area just undetected yet.

The threat of bird flu in southern Nepal is escalating as the authorities failed to curb the import of poultry products from bordering Indian cities, reported the national news agency (RSS) Friday.

The RSS quoted a local from Birgunj Municipality, situated some80 km south of capital Kathmandu, as saying that poultry products including chicken, ducks and eggs are still entering Nepal through various custom points in the district despite the ban.

Don't Worry. Be Happy.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/spin-we-in.html

While the Indian and West Bengal governments continue to reassure the world that they have their bird flu outbreak under control, news reports to the contrary continue to show up.

Typical of the `optimistic' reports, this one released late yesterday assures us that the outbreak was under control and Kolkata (Calcutta) is well protected and safe from the virus.

Tamiflu Blanket Over Birbaum, India

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2008/1/25/tamiflu-blanket-placed-over-birbaum-india.html

There will never be enough Tamiflu, no matter how much they order.

[quote name=www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2008/1/25/tamiflu-blanket

-placed-over-birbaum-india.html]

The report -- carried here and elsewhere, regarding the illness of more than 2,300 people in the epicenter of the H5N1 outbreak in Birbaum, West Bengal, India -- has led to the establishment of a Tamiflu blanket over cullers working within the entire Birbaum area.

Media reports, filtered by Dr. Henry Niman, indicate that sick cullers are receiving Tamiflu -- and the application of the antiviral has been extended to cover otherwise healthy cullers. The commentary can be found at:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01250801/Birbhum_Cullers_Ill.html

If this is accurate, this is the second-largest Tamiflu blanket in history. The largest Tamiflu blanket that anyone outside the WHO is aware of, occurred in August, 2006, in four rural Indonesian villages in West Java...

Bird Flu Returns

http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1706889,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

(hat tip fluwiki/mojo)

Excellent photos depicting bird flu across the globe.

West Bengal Asking for "All Possible Help"

Clearly this is an SOS call.

I think that they had better send in the cavalry. This sounds like

they are drowning and, are going down for the third and last

time.

Where is the WHO, and what are they doing to help?

Has the rest of the world given up on India? It's not like

this virus is going to stay contained there.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=128042&postcount=71

The Indian state of West Bengal, battling the country’s worst outbreak of deadly bird flu, appealed on Saturday to the federal government to send “all possible help to defeat” the virus.

The call by state animal resources minister Anisur Rahaman came as authorities struggled to stop the disease spreading beyond the 12 out of 19 state districts already affected.

“We have to control the disease immediately as the deadly H5N1 virus has been spreading fast,” Rahaman said, adding “avian flu is knocking on the doors of Kolkata,” the eastern state’s congested capital of 13.5 million people.

“I’m urging the federal government to send all possible help to defeat the virus before it affects the humans,” he told AFP.

New Delhi has already sent some medical teams and other assistance to the state.

Three days of heavy rains have held up efforts to slaughter poultry, turning some rural dirt roads into muddy rivers and making it impossible for health teams to reach chicken farms in the poverty-ridden state.

Rahaman said he was deeply concerned by reports some villagers in rural areas were eating slaughtered chickens.

“We don’t understand why people do not understand the dangers of the disease despite repeated warnings,” he said, adding children were still playing with chickens.

Humans typically catch the disease by coming into direct contact with infected poultry, but experts fear the H5N1 strain may mutate into a form easily transmissible between people.

Panic about bird flu has gripped Kolkata after news spread that the disease had reached the outskirts of the city on Friday.

Another Cause for Concern - Dogs Are Dying

Every time H5N1 infects a mammalian host, it increases the chances of viral

adaptation to mammals even if it's just a dog or a cat. There is so much

going on in India right now with the spread of the virus to many new locations,

that it would be easy to miss that it's not just birds and people that are at risk.

Now the dogs are dying, and that is a very bad sign. This is similar to what

happened in Indonesia with their feral cat population.

They are "preparing to fight a human disaster." But, it won't be just them

that will be fighting, will it? I think not.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/01/india-is-h5n1-g.html

Deaths of many dogs and doves were also reported in bird flu-affected Katwa in Burdwan and Kazigram in Malda. State Animal Resource Development (ARD) officials have collected samples of carcasses for laboratory tests.

A state health department official said, “There is every possibility of human influenza anywhere across the state. We are preparing to fight a human disaster. Today, we asked the Centre to send us about 35 ventilators and several thousand equipment. The Centre has already given us 20 ventilators.”

CIDRAP's Update on the Bangkok Bird Flu Conference

Here are some of the topics discussed amongst the scientists and practioners

attending this conference in Thailand.

I found the discussion of the stockpiling adjuvants to be of interest. It is such a

practical idea that it seems likely that they will try to do this, if there is time, that

is.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jan2508bangkok-jw.html

The UK

Maybe it does not seem important that more swans in the UK are testing

positive for H5N1, but it does mean that the virus is present in Europe.

Remember, it does not stay put. It will spread if not now, then later.

I think that what happens is that it slowly infects the more susceptible

birds like swans, and then other birds, and then poultry and mammals,

and when there is enough of it in the environment, humans particularly

young people...

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/uk-6th-dorset-swan-tests-positive-for.html

A sixth swan from a sanctuary in Dorset has tested positive for bird flu, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has said.

Defra said the mute swan tested on 21 January had the virulent H5N1 bird flu.

The news comes just as restrictions on the movement of poultry and other captive birds in the area around the Abbotsbury swannery were lifted.

Movement restrictions in the wild bird control area remain in place, according to a Defra spokesman.

Three Locations in Thailand Reporting H5N1

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/avian-flu-suspected-in-third-thailand.html

An abstract on a new study saying that the 1918 flu had a milder version that

occurred a few months prior to the devasting strain of the autumn of 1918. I have

heard this before, that in various countries the milder flu came first then the killer

version later.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=128021&

postcount=1

[quote name=http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/bird-flu/mg

19726404.900-1918-flu-pandemic-had-a-trial-run.html]

Scandinavian health statistics record an unseasonable outbreak of flu in the summer of 1918. People who caught it were only a tenth as likely to die as those stricken in the autumn, but those who did catch it were mainly young adults - a hallmark of the autumn outbreak and a strong indication that the summer virus was closely related to it (The Journal of Infectious Diseases, DOI: 10.1086/524065).

Previous studies have shown that the autumn virus spread relatively slowly. It had been hoped that this was a general feature of pandemics, because it would mean that "social distancing" measures such as closing schools could prevent deaths.

An American grandmother staying in India shares her view of what is

happening over there. She is on a spiritual journey, it appears, but

is unable to ignore the s/s of bird flu surrounding her:

(hat tip Avian Flu Diary/flutrackers/siam - thanks all)

http://www.travelpod.com/print-travel-blog/globalgramma/india_journey/1201061760/tpod.html

http://www.travelpod.com/print-travel-blog/globalgramma/india_journey/1201405500/tpod.html

Bird Flu Equipment Gathering Dust in Kolkata

http://www.expressindia.com

(hat tip P4P/siam)

Hard to believe, and very alarming...

...no equipment has been set up in these isolation wards. At Margram, the epicentre of the outbreak, only four beds kept inside a vacant room is all that the health department did as the isolation ward.

"An isolation ward must have a controlled environment with an intensive care unit facility, apart from expert doctor and nurses. Here we just have a room and that is all. There is no equipment, no trained nurses no specialist doctor either to man the ward. I am not aware what the central government had sent," said a doctor at Bosua Block Primary Health center.

"We are yet to get the equipment. We have kept a space for the isolation ward but without the equipment in the ward we are helpless," said Sunil Kumar Bhowmik, Chief Medical Officer of Health, Birbhum.

When asked about this, Sanchita Bakshi, state director of health services, said: "I do not understand why the media is creating such a panic? There had been no human infections here. The equipment given to us from Union Government is in our custody. We have set up isolation wards, we have to make some special arrangements before we can actually install the equipment. That's why it is taking some time.

Two More Deaths in Indonesia, and Two Other Positive Cases

Of course, they are young. This time a 9 yr old boy and a young woman of 23.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/indonesia-reports-100th-death-from-bird.html

A 23-year-old Indonesian woman from East Jakarta has died from bird flu, taking the country's death toll to 100, according to a report from Indonesia's bird flu information centre on Monday.

The woman died on Sunday and two separate laboratory tests confirmed she contracted H5N1, the report said.

Earlier on Monday, a 9-year-old Indonesian boy who had tested positive for bird flu died, the health ministry said in a statement.

A 31-year-old woman and 32-year-old man hospitalized at Persahabatan hospital for fever and respiratory problems also tested positive for the deadly H5N1 virus on Monday, the ministry said.

Saudi Arabia

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/saudi-report-new-outbreak-in-poultry.html

Saudi authorities have culled nearly 160,000 birds after a new case of the deadly strain of bird flu was found on a farm outside Riyadh, state media said on Tuesday.

Tibet

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK78849.htm

China has detected an outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu in poultry in Tibet...

A total of 1,000 poultry have died of the disease in Gonggan county since Jan. 25, while another 13,080 have been culled, the Ministry of Agriculture said on its Web site (http://www.agri.gov.cn).

"The National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory confirmed the virus as a subtype of the H5N1 strain," it said.

Bird flu spreads fastest in chilly weather. (Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Lucy Hornby and Alex Richardson)

A Series of Unfortunate Events in West Bengal

A good article on how it got so bad in West Bengal.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/stories/20080215250301300.htm

(hat tip crofsblog)

Indonesia, 101st Death Reported

Another young man, only 32 years old has died of avian influenza.

A very bad week in Indonesia...

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/indonesia-reports-it-101st-death-from.html

A 32-year-old Indonesian man has died of bird flu, the health ministry said Wednesday, bringing the death toll to 101 in the nation worst hit by the deadly virus.

The man, who died Tuesday, was from the Jakarta satellite district of Tangerang, the ministry's bird flu information centre said in a statement.