Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

West Bengal Wants Foreign Help With Bird Flu

We should have known that it was coming, and indeed we should be helping.

If H5N1 is not halted or at least delayed there, it will reach other areas sooner.

Each day of delay is precious time that could be used for preparing other

countries to decrease the morbidity and mortality of their populations.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/west-bengal-wants-foreign-help-with.html

"I have urged the chief minister to have talks with the federal government so that we can approach the United States and China for help."

Both countries have already offered to assist the state, local reports have said.

"We have an experience that bird flu spreads very quickly so it needs to be tackled fast," said United States Ambassador to India David C. Mulford, according to a report in the Indian Express Tuesday.

"It has to be nipped in the bud before it moves forward."

30 Out of 64 Districts Reporting Bird Flu in Bangladesh

Very unwelcome news signifying that they are not even close to containing

H5N1 in that country.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=129439&postcount=2

Two Examples of Diverse Locations of H5N1 in Wild Birds

Hong Kong

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=129500&postcount=1

The UK

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01300805/H5N1_Swan_Dorset_7.html

NATO Begins Pandemic Monitoring

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/01/nato-begins-pan.html

NATO will be accessing info by a data gathering group that monitors blogs

and the media, the Global Public Health Information Network (GPHIN).

The flu forums have been doing this same work for a few years now

without using paid analysts. Flu forum translators do all of this by donating

their time and talent. I suppose that GPHIN is monitoring the flu forums

as well...

And since this is a nursing forum, I wonder if they made note of the

significance of this: https://allnurses.com/forums/f8/will-you-work

-during-pandemic-258506.html

Lemay said that, by monitoring non-official sources of information like news broadcast, Web sites and blogs, GPHIN was able to provide much more timely information than government agencies generally provided. "In some cases," he said, "the head start was as much as six months."

As an example, he said that the first reports about possible H5N1 bird flu infections in Iran appeared in Persian language media in September 2005, but despite discussions with international experts later that year, it was not until February 2006 that Iranian officials confirmed the outbreak.

Pakistan Investigating Large Bird Die-off

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/01/pakistan-investigating-

large-bird-die.html

While India is nervously trying to keep bird flu out of Kolkata (Calcutta), there are fears Pakistan may already have bird flu in their largest city, and one of the most populous cities in the world; Karachi.

Following the large-scale deaths of birds at a local farm, poultry and health officials have suspected that avian influenza (bird flu) has crept into Karachi.

A senior poultry officer of the Sindh government said that he had been informed about an extraordinary number of mortalities of birds in a farm located on the right side of the Super Highway near the Toll Plaza, lending credence to reports that the much-dreaded bird flu had hit Karachi.

widespread tamiflu resistance in human h1n1 matches h5n1

this is important information. tamiflu is the main defense that we have

for treating and preventing influenza. in a pandemic situation it's all

we've got except for our mitigation strategies.

given that we have no vaccine for h5n1, bird flu should it become the

cause of the next pandemic, it is of even more of a concern that any

influenza would develop resistance to this medication. for the us, they

are talking about just one strain of influenza a, a variant of h1n1, the

solomon island strain, but there may others that have also acquired

this polymorphism. the major worry is that a pandemic strain involving

material from both h1n1 and h5n1 may carry this snp

(single nucleotide polymorphism). that is probably why these scientists

met via teleconference to discuss the implications of this change that

occurred in several locations across the globe.

the following commentary attempts to explain how this happened, and

what it means.

"that's quite a surprise," the lab's scientific director, dr. frank plummer, said, noting the resistance mutation spotted in the winnipeg testing is the same one that has been reported over the past few days from norway, several other european countries and the united states.

eight of 81 h1n1 viruses tested carry the h274y mutation - one each from british columbia and newfoundland and labrador, and six from ontario. plummer said that total includes one virus (from british columbia) recovered from a child who is believed to have been infected in sudan.

his surprise is shared by experts with the world health organization's global influenza program, which convened a teleconference of about 50 scientists from leading influenza laboratories around the world tuesday to try to get a handle on how far this virus has spread, how common it is in places where it is being found and what is driving the spread.

the above comments provide additional detail on the frequency of h1n1 seasonal flu with tamiflu resistance marker, h274y. in public sequences at los alamos, the change suddenly appeared in 2007 at multiple locations in the united states. the above comments suggest the frequency has grown this season and the polymorphism is widespread in europe and north america.

in the united states the change was in the solomon islands variant, which links back to asia, where the identical change has been seen in h5n1 from patients treated with tamiflu, as well as birds, including wild birds in astrakhan in 2005.

like the wild birds, most of the recent human isolates are from hosts that have not been treated with oseltamivir. the widespread appearance of h274y in such hosts indicates the change does not create a selective disadvantage, and is analogous to the sudden appearance of another na polymorphism in n1, which is g743a in various genetic backgrounds of clade 2.2 h5n1. that change is silent and doesn’t offer an obvious selective advantage, yet it was appended onto at least eleven different genetic backgrounds in 2007.

these polymorphism are appended via recombination, and the widespread use of a tamiflu blanket provides a selective environment for the acquisition of h274y in human h1n1 co-infected with h5n1 patients.

evidence is accumulating for mild human cases of mild h5n1, which are largely going undetected. a recent study of patients in cambodia identified h5n1 antibodies in patients who were asymptomatic. similarly h5n1 was isolated from patients with mild infections in egypt. these cases did not develop pneumonia, and similar cases would likely be mistaken for seasonal flu, and h5n1 testing would not be done.

the sudden appearance of h274y in seasonal h1n1 after tamiflu blankets had been applied extensively in recent preceding years is not a coincidence.

posted with permission from recombinomics:

http://www.recombinomics.com/news/01300804/h1n1_h274y_h5n1.html

Indonesia - 102nd Fatality

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/01/indonesia-woman.html

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/indonesia-reports-102nd-avian-flu.html

The first Indonesian H5N1 death this year was reported on January 14, 17 days ago. In those 17 days, 8 persons have died in Indonesia of avian influenza.

The Truth - H5N1 Is Diverse and Widespread in Wild Birds in the UK

The evidence is in the sequence analysis of the viruses, even if only partial

sequences have been released. This is how you will know what the true

situation is. I hope that this makes sense. It is a difficult topic, I know.

But, it is annoying that the truth is not being told that this virus is very

present as well as very widespread, and DEFRA is not saying this. Are

they really incompetent?

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01310806/H5N1_Wild_Birds

_England.html

If the swans were infected by a common source, which would be other wild birds, then the sequences from the four swans reported above would be virtually identical. Instead the relatedness between the four swan isolates is 99.3% to 99.8%.

...the four sequences described for the four swans in Dorset are related to each other (greater than 99% identity), but not from a common source, which would generate identities greater than 99.9%

...the sequences in the swans have significant differences, indicating they were independently infected by a variety of distinct sources.

This is supported further by the timing of the discovery of the positive birds. The number of H5N1 positive swans is now up to seven and these birds were collected over a one month period.

The number of positive birds is low because the assay lacks the sensitivity to detect H5N1 in live healthy birds, which is why all of the healthy birds are negative and why the only positive dead birds are mute swans, which tend to have a higher level of H5N1 than other species.

That number is now up to nine, and can be expected to increase:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02010804/H5N1_Swan_Dorset_9.html

The collection date extends the time frame for H5N1 infected mute swans in the area to more than a month...adding additional evidence that H5N1 is widespread and diverse in the wild bird population in England.

The evidence suggests the detection is low because of the procedures and assays, not because the level of H5N1 infection in the mute swan population is low.

DEFRA continues to withhold the sequences from the isolates, which will clearly show that the genetic diversity in the wild birds is high.

H5N1 readily crosses species barriers, especially in bird populations. The failure to detect H5N1 in other species further supports the low sensitivity of the surveillance program.

Has Tamiflu-resistant H1N1 come to the US?

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2008/1/31/has-tamiflu-resistant-h1n1-come-to-the-us.html

Millions of Birds to Be Culled in Four States

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=130350&postcount=65

NEW DELHI: The Centre has ordered the culling of poultry birds within

a radius of five kilometres in four States adjoining the bird flu-hit

districts of West Bengal.

These include Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and Assam. This step is being

taken to create an "immunity belt" between the bird flu-hit districts and

the States that share their borders. A notification to this effect was issued

late on Friday night.

In the four States, un-infected poultry birds will be culled to prevent the

spread of the pathogenic H5N1. The culling operations will be undertaken

in seven districts in Jharkhand, five in Bihar, and two each in Orissa.

It is estimated that the total number of poultry-mostly backyard-in

Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam and Orissa is 14.5 million.

The Situation in Bangladesh

Take a look at the map on this link.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=130282&postcount=73

...culling of poultry has taken place in 134 farms, spread over 30

districts...Of these, 97 farms have confirmed H5 virus infection.

A total of 337,878 chickens have been culled. No human cases

have been reported.

Karachi, Pakistan

There were human cases in the Northwest Territory in December,

now poultry infected with H5N1 are being found in the southern port

city of Karachi:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/pakistan-authorities-reacts-to-bird-flu.html

Good radio interview with Dr. Henry Niman of Recombinomics from 1/28/08

gives an overview of the history of the H5N1 virus, and why there is concern

that this is may be the next pandemic virus. I did not time this, but I think it is

about 40 minutes.

Since he is a virologist, he does go into an explanation of how the virus has

changed and become more dangerous to mammals. If you are going to listen,

get a drink, put your feet up, and take notes on anything you do not understand.

If you have been following these threads on panflu, you will be familiar with

this information. If you have any questions, feel free to ask via PM or on

this thread. If you do not understand something, others probably do not either.

It can be a complicated topic if you have not been following this information all along.

There are also other interviews at the same site from other guests speaking

on H5N1 potential for pandemic including Dr. Nabarro from the UN.

http://www.radiosandysprings.com/infectiousdiseases.php

Turkey

Culling started on farms where poultry have died. Four Turkish children

died of H5N1 in 2006:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=130546&postcount=17

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/turkey-sets-up-quarantine-zone-after.html

Indonesia - Culling Started Near Home of Suspected Victim

An infant died on 1/31, and they have found infected poultry nearby hence the culling in Riau:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/02/indonesia-riau.html

Vietnam

http://www.thanhniennews.com/healthy/?catid=8&newsid=35544

(hat tip fluwiki/nimbus)

Is Something Happening in Pakistan?

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/02/is-something-ha.html

This article is notable for two reasons. First for giving out fallacious

information from a medical authority regarding the H5N1 virus.

Specifically, saying that this virus does not survive freezing is incorrect.

The other startling statement is the part about the disease spreading

across the country in 8 hours. More likely that they just did not notice

that it was present until poultry started dying in large numbers.

Following the directions of federal government, most of the hospitals of the province have been put on high alert to cope with any emergency arising out of H5N1 strain of avian (birds) influenza.

The disease, which had been reported from eastern and southern part of the South East Asia, seems to have been reached most cities of Pakistan during the last 8 hours.

Indonesia - 103rd Death

The news is usually bad from there with a rising case fatality rate:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/02/jakarta-tries-t.html

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/02/update-on-the-l.html

Saving the Poultry Industry Vs Saving People in Pakistan

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/02/ppa-slams-bird-flu-propaganda.html

Maybe they should ask the Indonesians about how the future is going

to look.

The Fowl and Inconvenient Truth

She's a great reporter. I wonder how does she get away with

telling the truth?

From Jakarta's best writer on bird flu, Emmy Fitri:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/02/fitri-our-rusty.html

Bombastic headlines mask true message on Australian "breakthrough"

Read this for the real message in that story from Scott McPherson:

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2008/2/4/bombastic-headlines-mask-true-message-on-australian-breakthr.html