AutumnApple 1 Article; 482 Posts Specializes in M/S, Pulmonary, Travel, Homecare, Psych.. Has 12 years experience. Nov 15, 2017 Future shortage? Doubtful. There may be a surge of retirements, but programs are still churning out grads (ASNs, BSNs ABSNs, etc.), so don't count on a shortage...Yeah, we have nursing schools on every corner here. Some are a bit shady but many are still passing there NCLEX.There is already a huge shortage in places. Here in the Raleigh-Durham area, there is a shortage. It's a nurse's market as all the facilities need help. We have the UNC system which includes several satellite hospitals and then the Duke system, a VA hosp. not a long distance away are Vidant hosp systems. Duke is building yet another tower which will put us at about 1200 beds. The VA across the street is about 350 beds. Everyone is looking for help.In my area, healthcare facilities are in a panic trying to hire nurses. More than a handful of hospitals have revamped their compensation package in hopes of landing some new hires who actually stick around for more than a year. Two and three year sign on bonuses are back.And these hospitals have "nursing diploma" programs directly linked to them but, it's still not enough.The general thought process (in my area) is that most facilities are already running short, but have managed to avoid hitting the panic button but they are not striving, they are just getting by. In the next five years, eventually everyone will have their finger on the panic button. Many agree, some facilities will have to downsize or even close due to lack of staffing.A huge percentage of our current population is getting to the age where they become more dependent on healthcare to manage. That, coupled with so many nurses retiring, puts us in a position where need outweighs product availability by too much.Having dozens and dozens of schools does nothing to relieve this issue. For every graduating class of 24 (ish) nurses, only a handful of them take a local position and stay there for any amount of time. Many of them move on to other areas where nurses are more needed and schools are less common. Some get jobs "related to" nursing and avoid bedside care completely. More than a few get into the field then decide its not what they wanted. We haven't even mentioned yet the ones who never practice bedside care and instead continue their education into another "related to nursing" field. The list of variables that diminish the school's effect on the nursing shortage is endless. You can churn out hundreds of grads every semester yet, the healthcare facilities are still left standing there with a "Where did everyone go?" expression on their faces when none of the new grads come to them to fill open positions. And the ones who do, don't last.So, the forward thinking facilities have all realized this and are focusing on retaining nurses again. This makes me think back to the days when the recession first hit and it became difficult to find new work on our field. I heard horror stories of HR people feeling their oates and boasting about how they could treat nurses any which way they wanted and the days of "Having to beg for nurses to work" were gone. Better get your tin cup out I guess cause, those days are back with a vengeance.