No Nursing Shortage At The Present Time

Despite rampant claims of a critical nursing shortage, many cities and states in the US are actually suffering from the opposite problem: a surplus of nurses. The intended purpose of this article is to challenge the widespread belief that a current nursing shortage exists. Nurses Announcements Archive Article

I am assured that some of you are reading this and saying to yourselves, "Duh! This topic is old hat. We already know there's a glut of nurses in many parts of the country, so why are you writing about this?"

Here is my reason for writing about the current surplus of nurses in local employment markets. I entered the term 'nursing shortage' into a popular search engine and yielded nearly 720,000 results. Afterward, I searched for the phrase 'no nursing shortage' using the same search engine and received about 59,000 results. Since the loud warnings of a dire nursing shortage are being hollered everywhere, I am going to do my part and shout some information that contradicts these claims.

Hospitals began experiencing a shortage of nurses in 1998, according to the American Hospital Association in 2002 (Ostrow, 2012). Colleges and universities aggressively responded to this shortage by expanding their existing nursing programs and/or starting new schools of nursing. Johnson & Johnson started an ad campaign to entice more people into the profession. Healthcare facilities responded to the shortage by offering more perks such as tuition reimbursement and scholarships to current employees.

Well, those efforts to increase the total number of nurses in the US have been wildly successful. The number of full-time nurses grew by about 386,000 from 2005 to 2010 and about a third of the growth occurred as unemployment rose to a high of 10 percent during that period, according to a report published in the New England Journal of Medicine (Ostrow, 2012). But still, the study raises an intriguing question: How did the nation go from a shortage to, if not a surplus, then at least an apparently adequate supply of nurses? (Rovner, 2011).

The federal government helped by increasing the funding for nursing programs to a whopping $240 million, up from $80 million in 2001. The proliferation of accelerated bachelor of science in nursing (BSN) degree programs and direct-entry master of science in nursing (MSN) degree programs also contributed to the rapid increase in the number of new nurses because students who hold non-nursing degrees can complete these training programs in 12 to 18 months.

The slumping economic situation in the US also contributed to the easing of the nursing shortage. Seasoned nurses are not retiring because many saw their retirement funds dwindle during the economic crisis of 2008. Other nurses have become breadwinners and accepted full-time positions once their spouses were laid off during the Great Recession. Some nurses are coming out of retirement and reactivating their nursing licenses. Moreover, masses of people lost health insurance benefits after becoming unemployed, which leads to reduced patient census in places that provide nursing care.

Thirty-six percent of nursing graduates in the class of 2011 had not secured positions as registered nurses (RNs) as of last fall, according to a survey conducted by the National Student Nurses' Association in September (Griswold, 2012). Of course, some states are afflicted with a worse glut of nurses than others. More than four out of ten (43 percent) of California nurses, who were newly licensed as registered nurses in the previous 18 months, say they could not find a job, according to a recent survey paid for by the California Institute for Nursing & Health Care (CVBT, 2012).

Experts predict that a nursing shortage will peak in the US in 2020. While these projections may turn out to be accurate, keep in mind that this country is continually producing record numbers of new nurses each year. Still, the nursing shortage of the late 1990s appears to have eased.

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Yes and the really skilled trades there is huge demand. The US is lacking in truly skilled trades people. In the Chicago area, we have been flooded as of the last few years with Polish/Russian immigrants.

The entire family comes, lots are trades people. They stay within their own cultural network and when I shop I see them dropping huge cash on luxe items (it absolutely amazes me in this economy). They often pay in cash. There are more and more ads for healthcare positions requiring fluent Polish/Russian - not because the patients don't speak English (they all do fluently), it's because they keep with their own community. Polish physicians are often able to make some big bucks and remain independent of the big hospital networks due to their exclusive marketability.

When I worked for a private practice a few years back, often payment of thousands was in cash from these folks. Yup the IRS never sees a penny from some I suspect. Funny thing though, the doc I worked for had Polish parents, but he was as American as they come himself - didn't speak a word of Polish. We laughed all the time at how we got so much biz just because of his last name.

I can back that up - my significant other's family came to NYC from Russia (well, Belarus) in 1980, when he was two. They are very amazing at cultural networks. If you have a problem my eventually-to-be mother in law can find you a Russian to fix it. By tomorrow. LOL - I now find myself, after taking four years of seemingly useless AP German in high school (I can still generally hold a conversation, but understand more than I can speak anymore) very much struggling my way through learning the Russian language, because otherwise I end up sitting outside the circle while they blab away in Russian. They all speak english, they just prefer their language. Maybe it will work to my advantage eventually in a stiuation like you describe lol.

Looking at the number of banner ads for nursing programs on this site, you'd never guess there *wasn't* a nursing shortage lol.

But seriously, even people in healthcare thought healthcare was "rescession-proof" until when...?

Specializes in Peds Medical Floor.
Looking at the number of banner ads for nursing programs on this site, you'd never guess there *wasn't* a nursing shortage lol.

I know right? I was thinking this the other day.

Hot off the presses, well, kind of, it's recent in the last couple of months, this article was taken from another thread.

Nursing Shortage Is OVER Until The Retirement Glut Hits: Businessweek article By Nicole Ostrow on March 22, 2012

Nursing Shortage Is Over in U.S. Until Retirement Glut Hits - Businessweek

A nursing shortage in the U.S. that led to a decade-long push for new hires and more graduates in the field is over, at least until 2020 when a glut of retirees will leave a new gap to fill, researchers said.

The number of full-time nurses grew by about 386,000 from 2005 to 2010 and about a third of the growth occurred as unemployment rose to a high of 10 percent during that period, according to a report published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The increase in the nursing workforce from 2005 to 2010 was the largest of any five-year period during the last 40 years, the authors said. Hospitals began experiencing a shortage of nurses in 1998, according to the American Hospital Association in 2002.

“It’s really been a long-standing shortage,” Douglas Staiger, the study author and a professor of economics at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, said in a March 19 telephone interview. “Probably for the first time in memory there were actually reports of nurses having difficulty finding jobs and reports from hospitals of almost a glut of nurses.”

In the early part of this century, many registered nurses were leaving the profession saying they were overworked, underpaid and unable to provide good patient care, according to a 2002 report in the New England Journal of Medicine. Hospitals responded by encouraging people to become nurses by offering more benefits, signing bonuses, scholarships and tuition reimbursement.

[h=2]Graduates Double[/h]Those efforts paid off as the number of people who graduated from entry-level baccalaureate nursing programs more than doubled to 161,540 in 2010 from 72,986 in 2000, according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing based in Washington.

The gains continued unabated even as the recession began in 2007 as nurses who had left the work force or were employed part-time returned to full-time work to shore up family finances, said Staiger.

As the economy improves, and the mostly married, female workforce quits, reduces working hours to part time or reaches retirement age, a shortage of nurses is expected again. The renewed need for nurses will hit just as demand for health care increases as more Americans gain medical insurance under provisions of the U.S. health-care law that goes into effect in 2014, Staiger said.

“We had suspected that the supply of nurses is counter cyclical, when the economy goes down, nurses work more, pile back into work in part because the jobs are there,” he said.“The concern was this was a temporary surge into the labor market, a bubble, and as soon as the economy recovered, a lot of nurses would exit and we would be back and the shortage would emerge.

[h=2]Bigger Shortage[/h]“Going ahead into 2020 and beyond, there are concerns that the kind of shortages we’ve had will be larger than what we’ve seen,” Staiger said.

The nursing workforce is now expected to grow about 109,000 full-time positions from 2010 to 2015, as the economy improves and by 227,000 if the economic downturn persists, the authors said.

The authors used data from a workforce model to compare the U.S. unemployment rate with the difference between the actual size of the nurse workforce and the model’s expected size over 40 years. They were then able to project what effect the recession had on the workforce in 2005 and 2010 and what effects an improving economy would have beyond 2010.

[h=2]Changing Job Market[/h]They found that from 2010 and 2015, 118,000 nurses will stop working full time as the economy grows.

“The nursing shortage is likely to re-emerge and nursing is going to continue to be a good occupation choice for young people,” Staiger said.

The current median age of nurses is 46 years, while the largest group is in their 50s, according American Association of Colleges of Nursing.

Polly Bednash, chief executive officer of the group, said she’s worried the report will lead policy makers to think they don’t need to invest in the nursing field.

“We need to put all the support we can into keeping the pipeline robust,” she said in a March 19 telephone interview.

Since the question was put to me earlier in this thread- if I could retire would I?

No, I would not retire, but I would go into something else more enjoyable. I like my paycheck and social security of $2,000/month doesn't go very far. I would like to be in the financial situation where I could start"moving forward" to get that position. and get the h*** out of nursing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Specializes in Geriatrics, Home Health.
This is a part of the reason the trades pay so well now. Fewer people willing to be become plumbers, electricians, etc and the pay keeps rising, when people flood a certain job market such as nursing or computer programming the pay falls, or does not keep up with inflation.

I'm from Boston, where the trades pay extremely well because they are essentially closed shops. To work on any government-funded projects, and most privately-funded ones, you have to belong to the union. To join the union, you have to know someone, preferably as a relative. Even holding a coveted union card doesn't guarantee a job if you don't make, and keep, the right connections.

We are barely seeing the boomers retire at this point. Give it 5-10 years and between nurses at retirement age and general population the shortage that the experts have been preaching will be full blown.

Specializes in Case mgmt., rehab, (CRRN), LTC & psych.
We are barely seeing the boomers retire at this point. Give it 5-10 years and between nurses at retirement age and general population the shortage that the experts have been preaching will be full blown.

One-third of Baby Boomers have no (zero) retirement funds saved. These people will not be able to retire. They will be working until the day they drop dead. There's no foreseeable retirement for one-third of the 78 million boomers, which adds up to 26 million people. That's a lot of people who will be working until the day they die.

My parents are 56 and 54 years of age without a dime of retirement money saved. My father has a lower-paying retail job and my mother has been unemployed for more than 4 years. They are in debt up to their eyeballs, and therefore, not socking any money away for retirement because their entire monthly income evaporates to keep the bills paid. If they live long enough to collect social security, that's all the money they will have.

Specializes in Hospice / Ambulatory Clinic.
I'm from Boston, where the trades pay extremely well because they are essentially closed shops. To work on any government-funded projects, and most privately-funded ones, you have to belong to the union. To join the union, you have to know someone, preferably as a relative. Even holding a coveted union card doesn't guarantee a job if you don't make, and keep, the right connections.

Y'know I have heard around here that people sell applications for the IWLU here for $10k. Probably not true but I think it just goes to show how hard getting in the right position can be sometimes.

I'm only speculating, but here is why I think the US is lacking in people who know who to perform the skilled trades.

1. School officials, politicians, and some parents have discouraged teenagers and young adults from doing 'manual labor.' An entire generation of young adults has been encouraged to attend college or universities when some of them are not college material. However, what can you realistically do with a BA degree in theater arts, literature, philosophy, etc.?

2. As recently as a generation ago, students were tracked into educational pathways based on their test scores and career aspirations. High schools once had vocational paths where students who became disengaged with regular courses could train to become welders, chefs, drafters, auto mechanics, computer office clerks, cosmetologists, manicurists, nursing assistants, and even LPNs. Vocational tracks have mostly disappeared from high schools, and these disengaged students are now forced to sit in college-prep high school courses.

3. An unspoken stigma exists regarding factory work, plumbing, mechanical and electrical work, and any work done with the hands. Many of today's unemployed college graduates would not be caught dead with a hammer or wrench in their hands. However, this type of work builds character, and not everyone is capable of doing it.

We took in a troubled teen relative who had trouble even attending school, let alone applying herself. When we talked to her about her future goals, she said she wanted to attend college to be a Pediatrician. We aksed her how that was going to happen, given the fact that she had around a 1.2 GPA. She just shrugged.

We told her she would either need to apply herself a lot more, or else she would need to consider lowering her job standards. We discussed what careers people with 1.2 GPAs generally get to go into - Retail sales, waitressing, the army.... We were hoping to get through to this kid!

A few days later, we get a call from the high school career councelor, scolding us for trying to crush this girl's career ambitions of getting a medical degree and becoming a doctor!

Specializes in Case mgmt., rehab, (CRRN), LTC & psych.
A few days later, we get a call from the high school career councelor, scolding us for trying to crush this girl's career ambitions of getting a medical degree and becoming a doctor!
A high school student with a 1.2 grade point average is not going to make it through medical school, let alone an easier college track, unless he/she changes his/her entire life, thoughts, and focus.

And to be perfectly blunt, not everyone is college material. School officials, political figures, and parents need to stop pushing young people into colleges and universities if they really do not want to be there. Trade school can lead to a respectable living and good income, and the same young people who become disengaged with books and theories would be best served by a vocational track in high school or college where they can learn a trade.

Specializes in Emergency.

Just curious....are all of you people that are whining and complaining that there is "no shortage"...employed??? If so, what is the problem. I realize I may have shot myself in the foot opening that can of worms, but it is reminiscent of TV as it tries to scare people about "terror plots"...Just wondering. Have we all become brainwashed by BOTH sides??? Have you seen "soylent green?" Can we even think for ourselves based on our unique life experience anymore?...or are we stuck to the new electronic pacifiers that have infiltrated our human psyche and our destroying our culture from within? We must stop being the cattle blindly going to the slaughter. Besides all this talk about no jobs, lots of jobs etc...it really doesn't matter much anymore...anybody that argued against unions and workers rights has given it all away. We gave up our power as free thinkers and hard workers years ago...we no longer call the shots...why do you complain? What gives you that right? Just wondering as I wait for the onslaught...