Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

India

Bird flu spreads in Tripura

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/bird-flu-spread.html

Clearly India believes that its bird flu problem is coming from Bangladesh.

"The earlier outbreak sites-Mohanpur and Dhalai-were within half to four

km from the Bangladesh border. So we were certain that the virus may have

come into Tripura through illegal trade of poultry between villagers on both

sides of the border.

However, the latest outbreak in Nadilagh has come as a surprise. It is 50 km

away from the Bangladesh border."

South Korea Again Sending in the Military

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/korea-sends-tro.html

First they sent troops in. Then when Corporal Cho was hospitalized, they pulled

them out, and now some are back in again.

It would appear that Corporal Cho had a mild strain of H5N1 as did some

cases in southern Egypt. That could be both good news and bad news.

The Ministry of National Defense says it will dispatch troops to help prevent the

spread of bird flu in Nonsan, South Chungcheong Province.

A ministry official said 50 soldiers will help cull and bury some 58-thousand

chickens and ducks in the area...

Japan

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152092&postcount=1

Considering the outbreaks in South Korea, and that this is an H5 virus,

that has been found in swans, the chances are very good that this is the highly

pathogenic (HPAI), H5N1 and not a low path virus (LPAI). Japan has had

outbreaks before. This one is in the northeastern part of that country.

The birds, three of which had died, were found on the shores of Lake Towada in Akita prefecture in the north on April 21, the prefectural government said in a news release. Inspectors detected the H5 strain of bird flu in the swans, the prefectural government said, but they were still checking whether it was the highly virulent H5N1 strain. Authorities have patrolled the area but have not found any incidents of large numbers of deaths or unnatural deaths in wild fowl.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04280801/H5_Japan_Swans.html

Since low path H5 rarely kills waterfowl, the finding of H5 in dead swans strongly suggests the H5 will again be the Uvs Lake strain of H5N1 and will be closely related to the H5N1 from poultry and a soldier infected this year in South Korea.

This is the first report of H5 in a wild bird in Japan since 2004, suggesting the levels in the wild bird population may be higher this season than prior seasons.

South Korea - Zoos on high alert for avian flu

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2889122

Amid an ongoing string of avian influenza outbreaks at poultry farms that began in early April, Korean zoos have been put on emergency notice to prevent the spread of the disease.

As public fear of bird flu increases, the Cheongju Land Zoo announced this week that it decided to close the bird portion of the park for the safety of both visitors and birds.

...a total of 26 outbreaks of H5N1 have been reported in South and North Jeolla and Gyeonggi provinces since April 4...

More than 6 million ducks and chickens have been slaughtered so far.

Politics Wins Over Public Health Again

http://www.neurope.eu/view_news.php?id=85781

(hat tip PFI/pixie)

This is just so unwise. I can't stand it.

...as one of the main victims of the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory

syndrome) epidemic, Taiwan had to learn firsthand that once a gap appears

in the health security system, epidemics can spread with alarming rapidity

and seriously impact the global economy and trade.

Taiwan continues to be excluded from the IHR (2005) notifiable disease reporting

system, however, and is thus unable to immediately access information on

disease outbreaks in other parts of the world or report local outbreaks to the

WHO. Regrettably, the WHO Secretariat and China signed a secret

memorandum of understanding in 2005, stipulating that the WHO must

receive clearance from Beijing before engaging in any interaction with

Taiwan. Undeniably, this agreement seriously hampers disease prevention

efforts and violates the rights of Taiwan's people.

Indonesia - Another Child Fatality

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/04/indonesia-reports-new-bird-flu-fatality.html

There have been 133 confirmed human cases in Indonesia, and probably

many more that have been called something else but were misdiagnosed.

Today we get word that a 3-year-old boy died on April 23rd, and that he has

tested positive for the H5N1 virus.

The article...describes this as Indonesia's 108th confirmed human case.

It is not. This is the 108th confirmed fatality.

Japan - Swans Test Positive for HPAI, H5N1

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/04/japan-confirms-swans-infected-with-h5n1.html

Japan on Tuesday confirmed four swans found last week were infected with the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

It was the first case of bird flu in Japan since March 2007 when the highly virulent H5N1 strain was found in a wild bird in Kumamoto prefecture on Japan's southern Kyushu island.

India - Catch 22 in Tripura

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/a-catch-22-in-t.html

According to the central guidelines all birds should be culled in areas that fall within five kms aerial distance from where the disease outbreak is reported. And in Bishalgarh at West Tripura district -a place located 25 kms from the capital severely affected by bird flu- state's premier Sipahijala animal sanctuary is located within five kms where culling cannot be undertaken.

...culling of jungle birds flying over tree tops in a deep forested area of 18 sq kms is also a tough task- sometimes simply impossible a task. You just cannot pick free birds or jungle fowls up and kill them".

H5N1 Spread in Eastern South Korea

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05010801/H5N1_Korea_East.html

The affected regions in southern Korea are under a whooper swan flyway from Mongolia. Last season, the H5N1 in South Korea and presumably Japan, were closely related to clade 2.2 H5N1 from a summer of 2006 outbreak at the largest lake in Mongolia, Uvs Lake. The clade 2.2.3 strain linked to Uvs Lake has also spread throughout Europe and the Middle East.

Japan has recently announced the activation of a pre-pandemic vaccine plan that begins with first responders and may include 10-20 million citizens. Similarly, the United States has ordered up to 38.5 million doses of a vaccine targeting clade 2.2 isolate from a bar-headed goose. Clade 2.2 is linked to migratory birds and reported in over 50 countries west of China, including those in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

H5N1 Not the Only Contender for Cause of Next Pandemic

http://tinyurl.com/694p7t

Four years? Why did it take four years to release those sequences?

Recently, genetic sequences from a 2004 human case of H7N2 avian flu infection were released. The sequencing was dutifully covered by Dr. Henry Niman, among others.

Why it took a whopping four-plus years for the genetic sequences to be released is a matter of serious conjecture. But what is clear is this: the H7N2 was a reassortant virus that carried several human H3N2 pieces. The reassortant H7N2 virus was a matter of grave concern to the doctors and researchers, who were at a loss to explain how a New York man with zero contact with poultry could have contracted an avian reassortant.

H7, as we have seen repeatedly, is usually benign but is ridiculously easy for humans to catch. And it is not always benign: As we see in the 2003 Westchester case, the patient was quite ill. And in 2003, a Netherlands vet was killed by H7N7 that went from an outbreak in poultry to an outbreak in people.

Bird Flu Confirmed in Swan in Hokkaido Japan

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05010802/Hokkaido_Swan.html

The location of the latest reported positive is almost 300 miles northeast of the confirmed H5N1 infected swans in Akita, indicating the infections are widespread...

The outbreaks in South Korea are approximately 500 miles southwest of Akita.

These latest finding in Japan and South Korea, as well as Primorie in southeastern Russia, suggest H5N1 is widespread in these three countries, and will affect additional areas as these migratory birds fly north to multiple locations including areas in North America.

numbers of migrant birds that move between Asia and Alaska

Dr. Niman, a virologist posting on a thread at flutrackers made some

interesting observations about the spread of H5N1 towards the North

American continent. Check out the map.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66970

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153253&postcount=3

Closing in on Aluetian Islands

H5N1 Migration From Japan Toward Alaska

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05020801/H5N1_Japan_Alaska.html

The latest confirmed case in Hokkaido is approximately 800 miles northeast of the outbreaks in Korea, and 800 miles from the western-most Aleutian Islands.

Japan has increased surveillance and has announced the activation of a pre-pandemic vaccine plan. Similarly, the United States has announced the purchase of vaccine directed against clade 2.2 H5N1 isolated from a bar headed goose.

The latest developments point toward an H5N1 migration into North America in the upcoming weeks.

About Bird Flu Surveillance...

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04290802/H5N1_Japan_Tell.html

As in Japan and other countries, they have been testing in Alaska but there are

some problems involved with how thorough the surveillance has been:

The increased surveillance was in response to the record breaking outbreaks in South Korea. Thus, H5N1 can be circulating undetected when surveillance is at the “normal” level, but is easily detected when surveillance is “enhanced”.

This “don’t ask don’t tell” approach to H5N1 surveillance is widespread. England found H5N1 in wild birds (swans and a Canada goose) when surveillance was “enhanced”, and Switzerland found H5N1 in a asymptomatic pochard in an area of enhanced surveillance.

These examples of H5N1 in wild bird populations in regions where there are no reported outbreaks in domestic poultry provide more evidence for widespread H5N1 in wild bird populations that are only detected under “enhanced surveillance”, which is usually not present, even in countries such as England and Japan. Other countries rely on conservation groups which use collection and testing procedures that are known to produce an over abundance of false negatives.

Testing the Wrong End of the Bird

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05020802/H5N1_Alaska_Tell.html

There were all kinds of puns that I wanted to make about this, but I will

let someone more clever do that. Dr. Niman of Recombinomics has been

hammering home the point that testing wild birds for H5N1 is not being done

in a way likely to pick up the disease because testing needs to be pharyngeal

rather than cloacal. The other issue is that testing should be done by groups

that have nothing to gain by the results either way. There is some thinking

that some of the bird conservation groups' methods are less satisfactory

because those organizations exist to protect wild birds, and bad press is

something that they might strive to avoid. A case could even be made for

saying that govt agencies in US and their counterparts in Canada might not

want the information released if they were to find positive cases because the

role of govt agriculture departments is to promote our poultry products to the

public here and probably overseas as well. It sort of amounts to the fox guarding

the henhouse so to speak, as Dr. Niman is suggesting with regards to any

hint of unfavorable information.

He also reminds us of what happened at Prince Edward Island where goslings

on a farm died of an H5 bird flu. There was something very odd about this case

which happened about two years ago. All the goslings died, and the people on

the farm were offered Tamiflu. Sending the samples for testing was strangely

delayed allowing the samples to degrade. When asked about the PCR testing,

they refused to disclose the size of the insert which would have revealed whether

or not the samples were highly pathogenic requiring a larger insert or low path.

They claimed that the results were inconclusive. I had to search back to find

where I had read this so here is that link in parentheses:

(http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=77594&postcount=65)

It has been known for several years that H5N1 levels are higher in pharyngeal

swabs. These higher levels are even more applicable to clade 2.2, since the

vast majority of clade 2.2 isolates have had PB2 E627K, a polymorphism found

in seasonal flu, and associated with higher polymerase activity at lower

temperatures (33 C). Consequently levels will be higher in nose and throat

swabs where the body temperature of the host is lower.

From the FAO Fact Sheet on testing wild birds for avian influenza. The FAO in

case you don't know, is the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United

Nations:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153320&postcount=16

Research has revealed that, unlike other AI viruses, the H5N1 HPAI subtype

replicates to higher levels and for longer periods in the respiratory tract

compared to the gastrointestinal tract (Sturm-Ramirez et al. 2004, Hulse-Post

et al. 2005). Furthermore, after experimental exposure, higher concentrations

of the virus have been found in tracheal samples than in cloacal samples on any

given day. Therefore, tracheal and cloacal swabs are currently the preferred

samples for H5N1 surveillance in wild birds.