Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

Strange News from India

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/05/tripura-humans.html

A very odd story, indeed that this many villagers are under medical

observation with fevers, though supposedly not been exposed to poultry

and, it seem just as odd that given the amount of sick poultry in that area,

they are not admitting to any human cases. The fever is just a coincidence

though, nothing to worry about. The govt is ready with the Tamiflu

just in case...

...109 cases of fever were reported at Nadilak village of Bishalgarh subdivision,

worst affected by the Avian Flu.

Sources added that none of villagers had exposure history to infected poultry.

153 Animal Health workers are under medical supervision and chemo-

prophylaxis.In the village of Hatearra under Mohanpur block of West Tripura

district has also running the containment operations to control the outbreak

Active house-to-house surveillance is continuing. A population of 24011

has been covered in 0-3 Km areas and 73 cases of fever have been detected

in the community and none of them had exposure history to infected poultry.

In the Mohanpur block 155 Animal Health workers are under medical

supervision and chemoprophylaxis.

Meanwhile, state government said there is adequate stock of Tamiflu and there

is no suspect case of human avian influenza.

S. Korea: 66% Of Provinces Affected

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/s-korea-66-of-provinces-affected.html

Bad news continuing in South Korea, and who knows what going on in North

Korea since they are not saying much...

The outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry have been going on just over a month in

South Korea, and despite massive culling and attempts at quarantining farms,

the virus has now spread to six of nine provinces.

While Korean officials have been battling this disease since April 1st, they

now are faced with an increasingly skeptical press which has openly

questioned the truthfulness of their status reports...

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05030801/H5N1_Korea_Migration_NE.html

... the disclosure of the spread has been delayed by the withholding of test results. This approach is similar to the control efforts by India.

The most recent report, and associated press releases, were careful to draw distinctions between highly pathogenic H5 and highly pathogenic H5N1, when in fact the only difference is the number of confirmatory tests that have been announced.

These distinctions have been used to delay confirmation that the soldier infected with highly pathogenic H5 is infected with highly pathogenic H5N1.

However, these delays in testing can lead to delays in actions, which leads to an increase in spread.

HHS Secretary Leavitt Blogs on Impression of the Vietnamese Response to Bird Flu

The people were afraid for their children and rightly so.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/05/leavitt-complim.html

The Viet Nam government appears to have taken the threat of Avian Influenza seriously. They seem to be doing what they can. Inherent in that observation is the acknowledgement that they don't have the capacity to do much...

On this trip, I met Mr. Chien, who I'm guessing by the fact that he started in the chicken raising business 18 years ago, is in his late thirties...

I asked about how the village reacted when they understood what they were dealing with. Mr. Chein said, "Our children were afraid, and we were afraid for them."

Vietnam - 3 provinces currently reporting outbreaks

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/vietnam-reports-new-b2b-outbreak-in.html

Bird Flu Spread of the H5N1 Strain

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/indepth_coverage/health/birdflu/map_flash.html

Interactive website shows spread of H5N1 with outbreaks (in birds), human

cases, human deaths, bird flight patterns updated to April 30, 2008. Noticeable

by its absence, the human case in South Korea is not listed.

http://tinyurl.com/4hgswf

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153263&postcount=33

If you watch the video for a few minutes, you will see whooping swans surrounded

by many, many pintail ducks. It will be readily apparent how these swans got

their name! They are all swimming together in the same waters. The second link,

references banding studies showing that the pintails in that particular study

migrate to North America. Hence, the concern about the recent finds of H5N1 in

the whopping swans in Japan. There is an already established pathway for the

virus to arrive on the North American continent. Will any of the studies in North America

find the virus in a timely fashion should it indeed arrive? Many questions remain about those

testing protocols. Will they use enhanced surveillance here now in a real effort to search for

the virus?

Conversely, there are at least 37 winter recoveries in North America of

Northern Pintails that were banded at wintering sites in Japan (Yamashina

Institute for Ornithology 2004). Furthermore, some Northern Pintails migrate

from wintering areas in North America to nesting and molting areas in eastern

Russia (Rienecker 1987, Miller et al. 2005), where they could come into contact

with birds that migrate from Asian wintering sites. Thus transcontinental

exchange of avian-borne pathogens could occur through (1) mixing of North

American and Asian migrants on shared summer habitats in eastern Russia,

(2) Northern Pintails that migrate between North American nesting areas and

Asian wintering areas, or (3) birds that shift wintering sites from Asia to North

America.

UPDATED MAP

http://tinyurl.com/4up9xc

Bird Flu Spread to Capital of South Korea

http://tinyurl.com/3qh3e9

H5N1 has been found in some birds in Seoul, causing a small number of worried

residents of the city to come in to be checked for symptoms of flu. They

are unlikely to be positive.

http://tinyurl.com/3qh3e9[/url]

Hospitals in Seoul were put on alert for bird flu after health officials issued emergency warnings to all hospitals in the capital city to watch out possible bird flu symptoms, the Korea Herald reported on Thursday.

The Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention has urged medical institutes in the capital to make immediate reports of any patients who have symptoms of the H5 avian influenza virus, such as a high fever, severe coughing, a sore throat and difficulty in breathing, the daily newspaper said.

"We will also distribute the antiviral drug Tamiflu to regional offices and make efforts to secure the necessary budget to deal with the matter," he said.

Blood tests will be done on patients who may have been infected by the virus, the official said.

The measures came after the government confirmed an outbreak of deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in eastern Seoul on Monday. It is the first time that bird flu has been discovered in the capital city.

H5N1 False Negative Soldier in South Korea Is Cause for Concern

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05100801/H5N1_Korea_Soldier_False.html

Wait a minute! Is this like being a little pregnant? Nothing like waffling about

the results. I don't doubt that he had a bacterial infection, but the primary Dx

was an H5 virus. This soldier had two lab confirmed positive

results, that were independent of each other, establishing H5 viral infection.

There is only one H5 virus that humans can have. He survived it. Some

people have survived H5N1 bird flu. He was lucky.

Apparently, the fact that the epidemic in the birds of South Korea continues to

spread, and that the govt there, has just this past week ordered an increase in their

antiviral stockpile of Tamiflu is just a coincidence, nothing to worry about.

It is simply amazing how the spin goes on. The bottom line is, if you truly

want to find something or rule it out, you have to use definitive testing.

South Korea did not do that. Their explanation is lame.

Two labs independently confirming H5 is a confirmed case. Many H5N1

confirmed cases have failed to yield an isolated virus. Since the soldier was

under oseltamivir (Tamiflu) chemoprophylaxis and was quickly treated with

an increased dose, the failure to isolate virus is not a surprise. Most of the

H5N1 isolates from patients are from fatal cases and from samples collected

near the time of death when the viral load is high.

There are many examples of false negatives in H5N1 cases.

...antibody test are optimal when convalescent serum samples collected

3-4 weeks post symptoms are used. Clearly such tests have not been

conducted on the soldier above since symptoms began on April 20, yet South

Korea has falsely declared the patient negative.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/s-korea-to-double-tamiflu-stockpile.html

South Korea says it will double its stockpile of the antiviral drug Tamiflu as bird flu spreads among poultry across the country.

The office of President Lee Myung-bak said Saturday the government plans to store enough Tamiflu by the end of this year to treat 2.5 million people. Currently, South Korea has enough Tamiflu only for 1.23 million people. The country's population is 48 million.

Second, and Larger Bird Flu Outbreak in South Korean Capital

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/s-korea-2nd-bird-flu-outbreak-confirmed.html

This would be like finding it in Washington, DC for us. I think that we would

be in shock also. South Korea is a very modern country, but they have been

unsuccessful in halting the spread of H5N1 thus far. It remains confined

to the bird population except for the one case that the Koreans are denying

has occurred.

I remember reading that a disaster/evacuation type drill is either scheduled or

just took place at Yongsan, the American military base in Seoul,but I have not

been able to find that link. The military members were told to bring the ID

cards and passports of all family members to the drill though the dependents

themselves did not have to appear. It was a very timely exercise, imo.

Last week's announcement that bird flu had been discovered in an aviary in

eastern Seoul sent waves of concern through that capital city. Many 'worried

well' flocked to doctors and hospitals, concerned over cold and flu-like symptoms.

Today we get a report of a much larger outbreak in the southeastern district of

Seoul, where 8000 chickens have been culled.

All Poultry Culled in South Korean Capital

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/korean-officials-reportedly-cull-all.html

In 1997 when Dr. Margaret Chan, the current Director General of the WHO, was

director of public health in Hong Kong. She ordered the slaughter of Hong Kong's

entire poultry population about 1.5 million birds in just three days. There were 18

human cases and 6 deaths there. Her decision is credited with possibly averting

a flu pandemic in humans.

Today, the South Koreans have slaughtered all poultry in their capital, though

not throughout the country which remains at risk for further outbreaks. They

have decided to spare certain types of pet birds presumably because they are

kept indoors and have little chance of becoming infected.

North Korea remains silent.

South Korean officials said Monday they have killed all poultry in Seoul,

the capital, to curb the spread of bird flu following a new outbreak of the

disease in the city.

Quarantine officials destroyed 15,000 chickens, ducks, pheasants and turkeys

raised in farms, restaurants, schools and homes in the capital, said Kim

Yoon-kyu, a Seoul Metropolitan Government official.

Bird flu began sweeping southern parts of the country last month for the first

time in more than a year, forcing the slaughter of about 6.8 million birds.

The Possible Consequences of Hoarding Information on Viral Sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120801/H5N1_Saudi_Falcon.html

Dr. Henry Niman predicts how H5N1 will evolve based on looking at the viral

sequences. His theory of recombination is still considered controversial,

however he has been very accurate about some of his predictions. He has done

some collaborative work with the former head of NAMRU3 in Egypt, and they both

presented at a recent conference in Canada. His dire warning makes perfect

sense to me, and should not be taken lightly, imo. I do not apologize

for saying that the random copy error thinking seems very outdated.

Recently WHO members have suggested it was time for a new paradigm in

influenza research, involving more sharing of samples and resources. Of course

such a new paradigm can begin with the WHO since they maintain a private

database of H5N1 sequences and WHO regional centers are among the largest

hoarders of sequence data.

...it is becoming increasingly clear that H5N1 is evolving via recombination,

and this evolution is quite predictable. These observations are in conflict with

the current influenza dogma which maintains that the changes...are due to

random errors and therefore cannot be predicted. This thinking (which is

shared among WHO consultants and regional centers) has lead to the

catastrophic plan to hold pandemic vaccines until after a pandemic begins.

That plan is destined to fail because the stockpiled vaccine will be

increasingly irrelevant due to H5N1 evolution away from the stockpiled vaccine,

further evolution during the time for production of a new vaccine. This approach

will chase the target, as it evolves away from the new vaccine.

Bird Flu Becoming Endemic in South Korea?

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200805/200805130009.html

[hat tip croftsblog]

Something has changed in South Korea, and it's not for the better. Bird flu

viruses originate in wild ducks and other water birds, and it did not usually kill

them. Then in May 2005, thousands of birds died at at the fresh water, nature

preserve of Qinghai Lake, China sounding an alarm to scientists that this virus,

H5N1 was becoming more deadly to its natural hosts. Still many ducks seemed

immune, but not any more...

Ducks, which had been relatively immune to bird flu, have turned out to be the source of the mutating disease. This has given rise to a vicious cycle of ducks spreading the disease to wild birds, which in turn infecting poultry again. Ducks are walking time bombs since they show no symptoms for a considerable time. Unless Korea succeeds in preventing the spread of the disease via ducks and traditional poultry markets, the country could come under a permanent bird flu threat, experts worry.

This year's virulent strain is different from that of 2003 and 2004, and of 2006 and 2007 in that ducks have succumbed en masse this year...

"The original avian influenza virus didn't kill ducks. But it seems the mutant virus is."