Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

Egypt

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/05/africa/ME-GEN-Egypt-Bird-Flu.php

Age 19, Tamiflu ineffective as was true with previous cases in northern Egypt.

Wait for it. We should be hearing some denial about Tamiflu resistance soon.

The true story is in the viral sequences if they release the information.

A young man died in northern Egypt from avian influenza bringing the toll of the deadly virus in the country to 21, said the state news agency Saturday quoting health officials.

Mohammed Idris, from the northern province of Beheira, was admitted to the hospital in the port city of Alexandria with a high fever and respiratory problems on Thursday and did not respond to treatment with Tamiflu, Deputy Healthy Minister Nasr al-Sayyed told MENA.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04050803/H5N1_Alexandria.html

Mohammed Idris, from the northern province of Beheira, was admitted to the hospital in the port city of Alexandria with a high fever and respiratory problems on Thursday and did not respond to treatment with Tamiflu, Deputy Healthy Minister Nasr al-Sayyed told MENA.

The above comments described a new H5N1 fatality in the Nile Delta. This fatality extends the string of severe cases in Egypt in the north. All have died or developed pneumonia, in marked contrast to the end of last season.

Previous commentary on Tamiflu resistance:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02130701/H5N1_Tamiflu_Chance.html

Indonesia

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/indonesia-teena.html

She was 16. The case fatality ratio (CFR) in Indonesia is over 80% as

compared to over 60% in other countries where human cases have occurred.

The girl, Sumiarsih, died on Saturday afternoon, three days after being admitted for treatment at the Sulianti Saroso bird flu referral hospital in the Indonesian capital, hospital spokesman Ilham Patu told AFP.

South Korea

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04060803/H5N1_Korea_Ducks_2.html

Government officials said about 500 ducks have died during the last 10 days at Sunchang. The owner has about 9,500 ducks.

I think the ducks died of other regular diseases, not bird flu, but we will conduct a test to confirm why they died, said an official of North Jeolla Province, declining to be named. The official said more birds probably would have died if it was bird flu.

Not necessarily so, though usually with a highly pathogenic bird flu virus, the mortality rate is high. It's a good clue to knowing you are dealing with a highly pathogenic virus except when you are talking about ducks. Ducks, you see are different. They can be infected but show no symptoms. It's a good way to spread a virus also in the wild duck population by not actively being sick since they can still migrate.

Tripura, India

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04060801/H5N1_Tripura_Confirmed.html

Not just poultry and wild birds but dogs, cats, and jackals have died from H5N1.

This Indian state is almost completely surrounded by Bangladesh where there

have been many outbreaks:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=145627&postcount=6

China Develops an Early Vaccine, as Bird Flu Reoccurs in Tibet

http://tinyurl.com/5tsl67

A few countries have developed some vaccines against certain versions of

H5N1, but as there are not enough doses available for entire populations

of these countries and since this virus changes so rapidly no one can be sure

if any will be effective if the virus does cause a pandemic, we might consider

these as just prototypes of the final vaccines that will be developed after a

pandemic has begun.

I am always grateful to my friend FlaMedic over at Avian Flu Diary for his

many insightful posts. Today, he has provided a link to the several peer-

reviewed articles of a medical journal.

Perhaps some of you are familiar with Respirology? "Adopted as the

official English journal of the Japanese Respiratory Society and preferred

journal of the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand". It's a free

read, focusing in this one issue entirely on pandemic influenza.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/04/respirology-treasure-trove-of.html

Respirology is a journal of international standing, publishing peer-reviewed articles of scientific excellence in clinical and experimental respiratory biology and disease and its related fields of research including thoracic surgery, internal medicine, immunology, intensive and critical care, epidemiology, cell and molecular biology, pathology, pharmacology and physiology.

Tripura, India - What Will We Eat?

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/tripura.html

This is a real tragedy. We are watching a hugh drama unfolding across the globe

that could touch us all. IMO, their sacrifice is buying us time.

Hearing about more mammals possibly dead of bird flu is also of concern. H5N1 affects

an unprecedented number of species from birds to mammals.

Report received till Tuesday afternoon said, culling operation has failed to achieve much success as the animal resource development department workers could hardly cull 2,000 birds, mainly due to non co-operation from the villagers. Most of them are reluctant to part with their chickens.

A housewife of Muslim para, Monoroma Bibi said, "These are means of our livelihood and if culled what will we eat?" Another aged person of Malaya, Sudhan Das said, the compensation announced by the government is too inadequate compared to the market price.

Apart from the chicks and ducks large number of crows also died and on Tuesday morning dead bodies of few foxes were also found in the nearby jungles.

South Korea - Fourth Farm Infected

Can you imagine President Bush visiting an infected zone like the Korean president

did?

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/south-korea-rep.html

The recent series of outbreaks are the first since to hit South Korea since March 2007. A total of 380,000 birds have so far been targeted for slaughter to contain the disease.

President Lee Myung-bak visited a quarantine center in the area of one the outbreaks and called for thorough measures to halt the spread of bird flu.

Vietnam

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/another-b2b-out.html

Compared to the enormous culls in West Bengal and South Korea, this sounds almost trivial. Yet the Vietnamese seem ready to report even minor outbreaks, presumably among backyard fowls and small poultry operations.

UN says bird flu becoming entrenched in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India and Bangladesh

No surprises in this announcement from David Nabarro of the UN.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/04/un-bird-flu-in-danger-of-becoming.html

...an entrenched virus would mean a longer time to stamp it out, higher risk of continuous re-infections and a greater cost-both financial and human-for the infected country. Entrenched viruses not only put the host country, but also neighbouring or distant nations at permanent risk of incursion.

WHO Phase 4?

Many would say probably not, but Scott McPherson has some interesting things to say about why he thinks we are almost there. I am not so sure, but I do enjoy his posts.

He is an IT expert and the CIO of the Florida House of Representatives. His writing

is always colorful:

http://tinyurl.com/49tjq9

Managing potential bird flu outbreaks with vaccines becoming problematic.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147914&postcount=1

Poultry vaccines have been used in countries such as Vietnam and China for some

time now, but they do not always work. Here is part of the problem.

"The problem is compounded by the fact that bird flu is evolving separately in all these different countries, and in some cases it may require more than one vaccine per country to deal with the different strains," Dr Daniels told the Conference on Vaccine and Immunotherapy Technologies on Wednesday.

Human to Human Transmission of Avian Influenza

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04090802/H5N1_H2H_Media_Myth_More.html

Dr Henry Niman of Recombinomics makes the case that human to human

(H2H) cases of bird flu are not that unusual. Identifying these cases

as H2H depends on many things such as good lab science since degraded

samples can hide the facts. And, of course, we have to be willing to admit the

truth also. It might take the efforts of scientists such as Dr. Niman, who keep

checking dates, and making the connections that some countries would not

like to admit.

Clusters of cases signify more efficient H2H transmission.

Bird Flu - Staying Calm About Panic

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2008/04/bird_flu_staying_calm_about_pa.php#more

Generally, I just post what the Reveres have to say, and leave it at that due to

some problems with comments following their posts that might cause a problem

with TOS over here. I hate to do that because sometimes those comments are

very valuable as they are in the commentary above. Several knowledgeable

people are discussing the post, and most of them have a level of expertise that

they are speaking from, for example, Dr. Lanard is internationally known as a

risk communicator.

When Science Takes a Back Seat to Politics/Money

http://www.navytimes.com/news/2008/04/kyo_indonesia_041008/

Indonesia bans Navy medical research unit

Will they never learn? Indonesia has just banned NAMRU2, the

US naval lab in Jakarta. This science lab has been at the forefront of

investigative work on H5N1 in Indonesia, the country where bird flu

is now endemic, and with the highest number of human cases/deaths.

Andrew Jeremijenko, medical epidemiologist and former head of influenza

at the US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 2, was the first to discover the

virus in a feral kitten during the time that the viral sequences of the poultry

did not match the human cases. The cat sequences were the closet match.

Basic scientific research is integral to fighting H5N1, and now the world is

going to suffer a tremendous loss of information due to politics/money again.

We can not afford it this time.

The ban follows the publication of a book by Health Minister Siti Rahil Fadilah Supari, in which she accused the World Health Organization and the U.S. government of trying to profit from the spread of bird flu. NAMRU-2 began investigating the disease after initial cases were identified in Indonesia in 2004.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/04/media-report-namru-2-banned-in.html

Bird flu claims another life in Egypt

30 year-old Egyptian woman's death from H5N1 strain of bird flu is 22nd among 49 cases in Egypt. She was from a northern suburb of Cairo.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=25356

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04110804/H5N1_Cairo_Suburb.html

...Last season 5 of the 7 fatal cases had M230I. No reported case with M230I survived.

This season none of the human H5N1 sequences have been released, but poultry isolates from the north, released by NAMRU-3, had M230I, as well as V223I and an HA cleavage site that matches the original RERRRKKR found in initial cases in Asia (first reported in 1996 in Guangdong province).

Russia: H5N1 appears in the Far East

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/russia-h5n1-app.html

http://tinyurl.com/3qvvy4

The second link is a map of just how far east the virus has spread. From

the same map you can also view nearby China, and Japan, as well as

South Korea where the H5N1 virus has been reported this week. It makes it

seem rather odd that North Korea has not reported anything. Maybe the

virus flew over their heads but did not stop there? Seeing the other nearby

areas in China that are also on bird migratory paths makes you wonder

but China is keeping quiet as usual. They do not seem to report poultry

outbreaks so much, and human infections only weeks after the occurrence.

No one really believes that China is not secretly dealing with H5N1, and

that there have been only a few human cases there.

I should also point out that you can see Canada and Alaska as not so far

from there. I love these Google satellite maps though I can get a little dizzy

from looking at them

http://tinyurl.com/3qvvy4

Authorities cordoned off the village, killed all other fowl on the farm and vaccinated birds in the village and nearby areas, the ministry said.

This is a long, long way from earlier Russian outbreaks, well north of Japan and Korea, and getting close to the western hemisphere. If it's H5N1, it's a major advance in the spread of the virus.

Tripura, India

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/04/a-negative-repo.html

This hilly state in India is surrounded by Bangladesh except for a narrow

strip in the northeast. If they are battling H5N1 then Bangladesh is also

infected.

A panicky administration has jumped into action culling 25,000 birds in the 72 hours in Dhalai, Belonia and Katlamara. But as always the threat of the deadly virus spreading to other areas looms large and the locals blame the local authorities for this.

People are handling the infected chickens that are being culled. No one is warning the people of the dangers of this, the government is not helping. The locals may not be too off the mark...

South Korea - 25 Suspected Outbreaks of Bird Flu in the Southwest

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/04/south-korea-25-suspected-or-confirmed.html

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr][/url]

The ministry said there are now 25 confirmed and suspected cases of bird flu, with officials scrambling to cull and bury birds to prevent further contamination.

I can appreciate the effort and efficacy from the French study, but it still does not answer how the transmission erupts from bird H5N1 to human.

I am sorry that it has taken so long for an answer.

First a little on the genealogy of H5N1:

https://allnurses.com/forums/2163936-post252.html

Then, look at this explanation of the RBD:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/12/rbd-looking-for-sweet-spot.html

Finally, here is an explanation of some of the recent changes in the virus

that have occurred. I hope the other links will help you to understand

the following a little better, or at least get some idea of what Dr. Niman is trying

to tell us. I have been reading his commentaries for a few years now, and I

know that it is not always easy to read him. But, I think you can get the bigger

picture here, that the virus is making adaptive changes that are not in our favor.

Perhaps as Dr. Niman once said, H5N1 is reading the lunch menu, and we

are on it.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04120801/H5N1_RBD_3.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04130802/H5N1_RBD_3_Roulette.html