Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 2

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What is bird flu and why should I care?

Here is a little history about avian flu from an article written in September 2006, on why you really should care:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=29081&postcount=1

The H5N1 strain of influenza - often referred to as bird flu - is first known to have jumped from chickens to humans in 1997. Since 2004 it has ripped through poultry and wild bird populations across Eurasia, and had a 53% mortality rate in the first 147 people it is known to have infected. Health authorities fear this strain, or its descendent, could cause a lethal new flu pandemic in people with the potential to kill billions.

Flu has been a regular scourge of humanity for thousands of years. Flu viruses each possess a mere 10 genes encoded in RNA. All of the 16 known genetic subgroups originate in water birds, and especially in ducks. The virus is well adapted to their immune systems, and does not usually make them sick. This leaves the animals free to move around and spread the virus - just what it needs to persist.

But sometimes a bird flu virus jumps to an animal whose immune system it is not adapted to.

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For some reason it scares me more that there is a growing problem in the UK. :o

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For some reason it scares me more that there is a growing problem in the UK. :o

Yes. It does sound more sinister perhaps because it is Europe, but look at the sheer numbers of birds culled in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia:

This is the largest cull in any country that I am aware of, although China

may have done more without telling us.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=110253&postcount=1

"More than 3.5 million birds have been or are being culled since the first infection (with the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu) was detected" on November 12, said a statement carried by the official SPA news agency.

H5N1 Spread on the Arabian Peninsula

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11210701/H5N1_Arabian.html

"Bird deaths have been registered in several Saudi regions, as well as in a number of regions in Yemen."

Although infections are expected at this time of the year because of migratory bird movements, this is the first report of cases over such a wide area.

In 2005, only Egypt reported H5N1, and the reported cases were limited to one healthy teal. In late 2006, only Egypt reported outbreaks in the region.

The reports of H5N1 in multiple locations in multiple countries on the Arabian peninsula weeks before pilgrims arrive for the Haj, remains a cause for concern

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MIT - A Conversation with John Barry

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/11/mit-conversation-with-john-m-barry.html

John Barry is the author of The Great Influenza: the Epic Story of the Deadlist

Plague in History

This is one hour long.

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Commentary by Avian Flu Diary on a machine translation provided by

one of the news translators at Flutrackers regarding some disturbing news from Indonesia:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/11/return-of-dr-c-nidom.html

Readers of this blog will probably remember Dr. C. A. Nidom, a scientist at Airlangga University in Surabaya, who discovered H5N1 antibodies in 20 percent of 500 stray cats near poultry markets in four areas of Java between September and December of last year.

Today we hear again from Dr. Nidom, and again, it is with disturbing news. According to Tempo Interaktif (Time Interactive), Dr. Nidom is claiming there are now 5 distinct clades of the H5N1 virus in Indonesia.

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Romania

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111284&postcount=3

Romanian authorities had to slaughter 90 hens and ducks on a small farm in Romania's eastern Danube Delta to prevent bird flu from spreading.

Preliminary tests on 15 birds that died at the farm showed they were infected with the H5 subtype of bird flu, Tulcea county official Lefter Chirica said.

Further tests were being conducted in Bucharest to determine if it was the deadly H5N1 strain, which has killed dozens of people around the world, Chirica said.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11280701/H5N1_Romania_2.html

South Africa

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/11/saudi-arabia-reports-fresh-outbreaks-in.html

This article is interesting for what it is not saying, specifically that actual testing had been done for H5N1.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111221&postcount=2

Again in Saudi Arabia

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/11/saudi-arabia-reports-fresh-outbreaks-in.html

Northern Vietnam

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/11/more-b2b-h5n1-i.html

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Myanmar/Burma

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111466&postcount=3

An alarming situation is developing with the deadly avian flu once again surfacing in Burma's eastern Shan State. Reports are trickling in that the virus is fast spreading in the region while authorities remain silent and inactive, sources said.

Sai Muing, a Thailand based journalist, who covers Shan State, said the flu had been first noticed in October in Nawng Ming village. But with authorities concealing the information, the flu has spread to many more areas in Shan State.

"There are rumors that the flu was first noticed when a local villager lost about 20 of his ducks bought from China . He bought about 600 ducks from China ," Sai Muing said.

Following the detection of the flu, local authorities including the Myanmar Red Cross and fire brigade were sent into slaughter chickens from local farm houses, local residents said.

"So far, the worst hit is Keng Tong township, and local authorities have culled over 1,800 chickens and fowls," a local resident told Mizzima.

Recombinomics Commentary on Indonesia

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11290701/H5N1_Indo_Mis_Matches.html

H5N1 is rapidly evolving in Indonesia, and the reservoir remains uncertain. Although the H5N1 in Indonesia is clade 2.1, many sub-clades have evolved, and the new subclades are frequently not well represented in bird isolates.

These match failures were seen shortly after the first human isolates were sequenced... Although additional matches in isolates from birds were subsequently found, the H5N1 evolution in birds trailed the human sequences.

These match failures again suggests that many of the human infections are linked to reservoirs not well represented by current isolates, and more extensive testing of other sources, including wild birds is warranted.

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Outbreak in UK Linked to Wild Birds

They sure do hate to admit it, but genetic analysis of the virus gives us

us a very good clue to where it came from, and therefore the statement that no evidence supports this being so, makes no sense. This is pure propaganda, or maybe they just assume that we are all stupid.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111446&postcount=7

The preliminary report into the latest outbreak of bird flu in Suffolk concludes that wild birds "may have been" the main source of infection.

But no evidence has yet been found to support this theory.

The report also found that poor biosecurity was practised by some of the staff on the farm where the outbreak occurred on 11 November.

This is thought to be the probable reason for the disease spreading to another farm.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111423&postcount=4

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111425&postcount=5

http://tinyurl.com/preview.php?num=2ppv5d

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Animal health crucial in bird flu battle - report

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/11/nabarro-a-time.html

Most governments are working quickly to attack avian flu when it pops up among birds but the virus is now entrenched in at least three countries, the United Nations and World Bank reported on Thursday.

And domestic animals can act as a "time bomb," providing a place for the virus to hide and change, potentially into a pandemic strain, the U.N.'s top bird flu official said.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has now been reported in 60 countries since 2003, according to the report. It has killed 206 out of 335 people infected...

"Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently entrenched in Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria, and possibly in some locations in China and Bangladesh," the report reads.

"Once the virus is entrenched, control and elimination become a major challenge, and the risk of human infection with H5N1 increases."

"Controlling disease in animals lies at the root of preventing human infections and reducing the probability of a pandemic," the report reads.

"We must rear our animals in a healthy way."

Wanted to let you all know I gave my H5N1 presentation in Micro today and it was great partially thanks to information found here!

Thanks all! I will let you know my grade in a couple weeks when I get it!

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Vietnam - Ducks No Longer Silent Carriers of Bird Flu

This is actually new information about H5N1. AI stands for avian influenza.

This link discusses a new change in the virus whereby ducks, which

formerly could be asymptomatic with avian flu, are now dying of it, which

would seem to indicate that it is becoming more virulent, at least for ducks.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/11/as-virus-turns.html

The deaths of large numbers of free-range ducks through November appears to confirm the view that they are no more ''silent carriers'' of the H5N1 virus, as was thought to be the case after the current outbreak of AI began in the winter of 2003.

But the high mortality rate among ducks during the two main AI outbreaks in the South-east Asian country this year has forced animal health experts into a rethink. ''Nearly three-fourths of the cases reported in Vietnam in 2007 have been free range ducks..."

There are some 60 million free range ducks, many of them part of small flocks owned by farmers in the southern Mekong Delta region. The ducks are often let to roam in the rice fields...

But the ducks are also found along roads and pathways, which can contribute to the spread of the virus, since it can be borne on the tyres or parts of vehicles or by people coming into contact with the infected ducks. ''The ducks also mix regularly with wild birds in some areas or migratory birds,'' added Gilbert.

Over a three-year period, H5N1 has spread beyond East Asia, where the current outbreak was first reported, to North and West Africa, in central Europe and as far west as England, reveals the report, 'Responses to Avian Influenza and State of Pandemic Readiness', which will be taken up for discussion during ministerial-level international meeting on bird flu to be held from Dec. 4-6 in New Delhi.

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Possible Bird to Cat Transmission of H5N1 in Romania

It is always a matter of concern to hear the reports of domestic animals other than

birds that have become infected with bird flu. It just serves to remind us

that mammals given the right circumstances are susceptible to this virulent

virus. We already knew that cats though they normally do not get influenza,

can be infected with bird flu. There have been hundreds of cases in

Indonesia. We also know that every time this virus infects a mammal, it

can further adapt to infecting mammals, and this is never good news. But,

most disturbing of all about this is that cats are companion animals in western

countries at least, and as such have close contact with humans.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/11/bird-to-cat-h5n.html

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poland

http://www.recombinomics.com/news/12010701/h5n1_poland_farms.html

three poultry farms northwest of warsaw were cordoned off after the deadly h5n1 strain of bird flu was found in turkeys, officials said on saturday.

there are plans to cull 4,000 birds. the cases were found at farms around the village of brudzen near the city of plock, poland's chief veterinary officer ewa lech said on television.

lech said the virus was most likely brought to poland by migrating ducks, geese or swans and an area within a 3-km radius of the outbreak had been cordoned off.

the above comments describe the first reported cases of h5n1 in domestic poultry in poland. in the spring of 2006, h5n1 was reported in wild birds in poland (swans and a hawk – see satellite map), at multiple locations to the west of the current outbreaks.

bangladesh

http://www.flutrackers.com

bird flu has spread to another district in northwestern bangladesh, forcing health and veterinary workers to cull some 6,000 chickens and destroy over 2,500 eggs, officials said on saturday.
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