The H5N1 strain of influenza - often referred to as bird flu - is first known to have jumped from chickens to humans in 1997. Since 2004 it has ripped through poultry and wild bird populations across Eurasia, and had a 53% mortality rate in the first 147 people it is known to have infected. Health authorities fear this strain, or its descendent, could cause a lethal new flu pandemic in people with the potential to kill billions.
Flu has been a regular scourge of humanity for thousands of years. Flu viruses each possess a mere 10 genes encoded in RNA. All of the 16 known genetic subgroups originate in water birds, and especially in ducks.The virus is well adapted to their immune systems, and does not usually make them sick. This leaves the animals free to move around and spread the virus - just what it needs to persist.
But sometimes a bird flu virus jumps to an animal whose immune system it is not adapted to.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued a series of alerts, many specifically directed at developing countries, warning about the ongoing danger posed by the prevalence of Avian Flu, reports Reem Leila. The warnings coincide with a WHO report revealing that in Vietnam Avian Flu has moved one step closer towards mutating into a strain capable of human to human transmission.
Hussein Khalafallah, head of Directorate of Veterinary Medicine (DVM), believes that while the H5N1 bird flu virus has witnessed a further mutation, developing a more virulent poultry infecting strain, it is some way from becoming capable of human to human transmission, though the changes are worrying.
Since 2006 there have been 38 recorded cases of the H5N1 Avian Flu virus infecting humans in Egypt. Fifteen of the victims died.
Khalafallah points out that while poultry has a body temperature of 106 degrees Fahrenheit humans have an average temperature of 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The nose and throat, where flu viruses usually enter, is even cooler, at 91.4 degrees Fahrenheit. "While normally bird flu has difficulty developing in the nose or throat of humans this latest mutation allows H5N1 to survive in the cooler temperatures of the human upper respiratory tract."
Last week 30 birds were culled in Minya after testing positive. Samples were taken for analysis from people who had been in direct and indirect contact with the bird, none of which recorded positive results. Since the outbreak of bird flu in Egypt in February 2006, 3,645 people have been tested for
Avian Flu.
This is supposed to be reported to the OIE, but instead the international
A 30-year-old Indonesian woman died of suspected bird flu on Saturday, the country's health ministry said here.
The woman from Tanggerang town on the outskirts of Jakarta died on Saturday in a designated bird flu hospital of Persahabatan in east Jakarta, said Harris Subiantro, an official of the anti-bird flu center of the ministry.
The above comments describe the fourth laboratory confirmed H5N1 in Tangerang in the past few weeks. Three of the four have been confirmed twice and are official WHO cases. Two of the earlier cases were neighbors. One (5F) died October 22, while the neighbor (3M) has returned home. Confirmed mild cases of H5N1 are rare, and the vast majority are contacts of confirmed cases, because patients with mild symptoms are not generally tested.
Although most of the patients have some linkage to poultry, the concentration of cases in space and time indicates the H5N1 is being transferred to humans more efficiently.
The other hot spot for human H5N1 in Indonesia is on the island of Sumatra in Riau. In addition to confirmed cases in September and October, there was a suspect family cluster. Although initial media reports indicated the niece (10F) was positive, subsequent reports indicated confirmatory test were negative. However, the death of her aunt (17F) 11 days earlier, keeps suspicions high since both had bird flu symptoms.
Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf has made a second coup.
Musharraf appears to have concluded that the Supreme Court would rule against him, thus his coup-within-a-coup, which at last throws off the tattered facade of democratic institutions and reveals the naked military tyranny underneath. Pitifully, Musharraf explained that he had to make the coup in order to ensure the transition to democracy he says he began 8 years ago.
Pakistan is now just the eastern edge of a disaster extending west to Jordan and Syria. Every country from India to the Mediterranean and the Black Sea is either at war, facing impending war, or struggling to cope with the consequences of its neighbours' wartime difficulties. Three of those countries have nuclear weapons. At least six have experienced outbreaks of H5N1.
When the Germans were planning their big offensive for the spring of 1918, they do not seem to have paid much attention to the influenza that was already weakening their divisions. But by the time they launched their assault on the western front, H1N1 had already defeated them.
Whatever happens in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq in the coming weeks, avian flu will follow its own course. The generals may propose, but H5N1 will dispose.
It seems that every time we turn around, we learn something new about the H5N1 virus, and that our earlier assumptions as to how a pandemic might play out may not be valid.
Case in point: About a year ago it was announced that the expected drop in the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio) of the virus might not happen. While still speculative, for the first time some scientists are publicly considering the possibility of a mortality rate many times higher than the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Why, you might ask, are we just coming to this realization?
It has been nearly 48 hours since we received word on the death of a 30-year old woman from Tanggerrang, suspected of H5N1 infection. At the time, she'd tested positive once for bird flu, but a second test was required before declaring her a bird flu fatality. Today, the Health Ministry confirms her status, making her the 90th confirmed fatality.
Of course, the true number of bird flu fatalities is unknown. There have been numerous suspicious deaths where no testing took place.
I just came across this and wanted to thank everyone. I am doing a report in Micro on H5N1 and will be reading all the references and articles here. You have saved me hours and hours of searching!!
A 30-year-old mother of two who died Saturday was confirmed by Tangerang's municipal health agency to be the latest human bird flu victim.
The housewife, identified as Eti, died at Persahabatan Hospital in East Jakarta, head of communicable disease prevention at the municipal health agency Lisa Puspa Dewi said.
The H5N1 virus also killed two children in Tangerang regency last month; 13-year-old Irfan who died on Oct. 13, and four-year-old Dewi Aprilianti who died on Oct. 22.
In a separate case, a three-year-old toddler confirmed to have the bird flu virus was removed from Sulianti Saroso Hospital by his parents on Oct. 27. His health had improved a health worker said.
It can be hard, as the numbers increase, to remember that the numbers represent real live people.
I try to report the progress of H5N1 without too much emotion, but I take every one of these deaths very personally.
Yes, I feel the same way about these deaths especially the kids...
...comments describe the fourth laboratory confirmed H5N1 in Tangerang in the past few weeks. Three of the four have been confirmed twice and are official WHO cases. Two of the earlier cases were neighbors. One (5F) died October 22, while the neighbor (3M) has returned home. Confirmed mild cases of H5N1 are rare, and the vast majority are contacts of confirmed cases, because patients with mild symptoms are not generally tested. Testing is done at infectious disease hospitals, and most suspect H5N1 are admitted after failing to respond to treatment at primary care facilities.
The geographical cluster in Tangerang, which is adjacent to Jakarta is cause for concern...Although most of the patients have some linkage to poultry, the concentration of cases in space and time indicates the H5N1 is being transferred to humans more efficiently.
The other hot spot for human H5N1 in Indonesia is on the island of Sumatra in Riau. In addition to confirmed cases in September and October, there was a suspect family cluster.
The increase in geographic clusters in Indonesia remains a cause for concern.
Indigo Girl - by the looks of it, we are heading for an extremely severe pandemic targeting the young and health, with no vaccine, too few antivirals, an almost non existent nursing staff & uninformed public.
In other words - very big trouble.
Sometimes it seems that the Government doesn't want the public to know whats really happening and hope that their "containment" strategy will work.
Indigo Girl - by the looks of it, we are heading for an extremely severe pandemic targeting the young and health, with no vaccine, too few antivirals, an almost non existent nursing staff & uninformed public.
In other words - very big trouble.
Sometimes it seems that the Government doesn't want the public to know whats really happening and hope that their "containment" strategy will work.
I think that this is a hugh undertaking, and many people in govt do want to help,
but really do not know what can be done. That is why grassroots movements like
the Readymoms is important. They are educating the public as well as helping
govt to see that we can do something. We are not helpless. If we can get
enough people to prepare to take care of themselves by stockpiling now, more will survive. That is the message that all us that are promoting awareness are trying to get out.
People first have to see that this could really happen. It is not science fiction, and
it has happened before.
Then they have to get that they need to be responsible for themselves. No one
can do this for them. There will be no rescue party.
Do I think that the govt could do more to tell people that this could be serious?
Absolutely, I do think that they have the responsibility to promote this message
more often and more forcefully. Preparedness needs to begin sooner rather than
Bird flu has killed 590 ducks in a northern Vietnam province, the fifth to have reported outbreaks among poultry within about a month, the government said on Wednesday.
Further tests also found the H5N1 virus in samples taken from two dead chickens dumped in a river in Ha Nam province, 60 km (37 miles) south of Hanoi, the report said. The case in Ha Nam brought to five the number of provinces that have confirmed bird flu in poultry since early October. Three of the provinces are in the north, one is in the southern Mekong delta, while the fifth is in the central province of Quang Tri.
Floods that affected Quang Tri in the past two weeks could help spread the virus to nearby areas, an Agriculture Ministry official said.
This next link describes the strange case of a South Korean man who died in
Vietnam. They are saying that he has died of bird flu. This is not confirmed,
and there are many gaps in this story. This is a very odd story. It may not be true, but here is some commentary from Scott McPherson:
It could be nothing, or it could be the biggest news of the year. A South Korean man has died in Vietnam; specifically, in the region we used to call South Vietnam. He died of suspected avian influenza. The man, accompanied by his Vietnamese wife, was visiting her relatives when he was suddenly (and I mean suddenly) stricken with "bird flu-like symptoms," according to the Vietnamese physicians who attended him.
UPDATE
This South Korean story keeps changing. They can not even get the nationality of the patient straight.
And, there is still no confirmation of anything about this case.
Zoonotic diseases are diseases caused by infectious agents that can be transmitted between (or are shared by) animals and humans. H5N1, commonly called bird flu, is a zoonotic disease.
Over the past three decades more than 30 new zoonotic diseases have emerged, and they appear to be showing up at a record pace. Various forms of avian influenza, Hendra, Hanta, Nipah . . . the list goes on.
Asia must keep watch for a sharp rise in bird flu outbreaks as winter approaches, the top U.N. influenza official said Friday, calling illnesses from animals "one of the greatest threats to the survival of the human race."
"The northern winter seems to be a time when the risk of the disease in poultry increases, and it's partly to do with the fact that this virus quite likes cold weather," said David Nabarro, the U.N. coordinator for avian flu and influenza.
Birds migrating from Asia to the south and west in winter could also carry the disease to new areas...
"When you get a high concentration of diseased birds, the risk of the virus coming into the human population seems to increase,"
Information on Dr. Nabarro is provided in the link following. Please be aware
that when they are speaking about an epidemic of H5N1, they are referring to
The United Nations Secretary General has appointed Dr. David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organization (WHO), to lead coordination of the UN response to avian influenza and a possible human influenza pandemic.
The appointment is critical as the world is fast recognizing the risk of an imminent human influenza pandemic, and is taking steps to reduce the risk and to get prepared. To this end, the World Health Organization has sent all countries detailed guidance on actions they need to take. Implementing these actions requires coordination across UN agencies, countries, civil society, across sectors within countries and the private sector. Implementation also requires funding.
As Senior UN system Co-ordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, Dr. Nabarro will be responsible for ensuring an effective and coordinated contribution by the UN system to controlling the current epidemic of avian influenza that is particularly affecting countries in Asia. He will also ensure that the UN system supports effective local, national, regional and global preparations for a potential human influenza pandemic - so as to reduce the human toll, as well as the economic and social disruption, that this pandemic could cause.
Two days after we first heard of this case from the newshounds, mention of it has been made in the Jakarta Post. While no determination has been made as to whether this, in fact, is a case of H5N1 infection, the patient was treated as such in the hospital.
If this proves to be H5N1, then once again we are seeing atypical flu symptoms, with diarrhea and seizures being mentioned.
A hospital employee suspected of having bird flu died on Tuesday evening in Pekanbaru, Riau province after being treated for only a few minutes at Arifin Achmad Hospital.
The 31-year-old man, identified as MN, was employed on the administrative staff of Permata Hati Hospital in Duri district and was initially treated at that hospital.
His condition had been improving when fever returned together with seizures and the transfer to Arifin Ahmad was ordered.
Arifin Achmad spokesperson said upon arrival the patient was already in "terminal" condition. "We prepared the isolation ward for him ... and tried our best ...."
The body was released to family after being prepared as per normal procedures in suspected bird flu cases.
What we have is a media report that an 8 month old baby (MB) has tested positive for avian influenza.
Also ill with similar symptoms appear to be his parents, U and LI, siblings AI & RM, an aunt (RM) and SM, apparently a neighbor of Muhamad Nabi , the 31 year-old hospital administrator who died 3 days ago. These relationships are somewhat tenuous given the limitations of the translation.
This media report intimates that the WHO is sending investigators to the scene. DEPKES refers to the Indonesian Ministry of Health.
The above media report and translation confirm that the hospital employee who died this week was H5N1 positive. As noted in the earlier report, the victim had no recent contact with poultry and was on the administrative staff at the hospital in Duri, where he and his neighbor were initially treated.
Confirmation of H5N1 in a health care worker is cause for concern because such infections signal a more efficient transmission and may signal more unreported cases at the Duri hospital.
WHO and the Department of Health begin an investigation tomorrow amid media reports of a cover-up of cases.
indigo girl
5,173 Posts
Egypt
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=106782&postcount=1
This is supposed to be reported to the OIE, but instead the international
community is informed by the media in this way.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=107014&postcount=4
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11030703/H5N1_Minya_Re_Emergence.html