Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 2

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What is bird flu and why should I care?

Here is a little history about avian flu from an article written in September 2006, on why you really should care:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=29081&postcount=1

The H5N1 strain of influenza - often referred to as bird flu - is first known to have jumped from chickens to humans in 1997. Since 2004 it has ripped through poultry and wild bird populations across Eurasia, and had a 53% mortality rate in the first 147 people it is known to have infected. Health authorities fear this strain, or its descendent, could cause a lethal new flu pandemic in people with the potential to kill billions.

Flu has been a regular scourge of humanity for thousands of years. Flu viruses each possess a mere 10 genes encoded in RNA. All of the 16 known genetic subgroups originate in water birds, and especially in ducks. The virus is well adapted to their immune systems, and does not usually make them sick. This leaves the animals free to move around and spread the virus - just what it needs to persist.

But sometimes a bird flu virus jumps to an animal whose immune system it is not adapted to.

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The Latest Poop on Pigeons

Why they would tell people this is the question. It can not be true.

All birds can become infected with H5N1, period. Not to mention,

many mammals...

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/12/latest-poop-on-pigeons.html

H5N1 Spread to Eleven Villages in Poland

Bad news still coming out of Poland, as they have not contained the spread.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12090702/H5N1_Poland_11.html

Earlier reports of distribution of H5N1 infected meat to retail outlets raised concerns over controls in Poland, and this large outbreak adds to those concerns.

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Pakistan

H5 found in Islamabad, and it is not clear that it is H5N1, but the birds

were culled anyway.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/12/pakistan-h5-fou.html

A team of experts has culled more than 10,000 chickens from a poultry farm in a suburb of the federal capital where avian flu virus was found.

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The Geneology of H5N1

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/12/the-genealogy-o.html

In Germany in 2006, the report says, the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus was found in 343 dead wild birds, a black swan in a zoo, three stray cats, and a stone marten and on one turkey farm. In June and July of this year the virus was found in 96 wild birds in scattered areas of southeastern Germany and in one backyard goose.

Previous study of the H5N1 viruses found in Germany indicated they all belonged to the strain that killed many wild waterfowl at Qinghai Lake in northern China in April 2005, called clade 2.2, the authors say. The new analysis of the 27 isolates showed that they fell into three groups that formed geographic and temporal clusters.

The viruses collected in 2006 formed two groups: one from northern Germany, designated subclade 2.2.2, and one from southern Germany, called subclade 2.2.1. The isolates gathered in 2007 formed a third type, which the authors called subclade 2.2.3, no examples of which were found in 2006.

So this new subclade 2.2.3 has never been found before in Germany.

Also note that mammals were infected, not good.

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The Case for Human to Human Transmission in China

What do you think?

It does seem rather suspicious.

Those pesky dates...

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12100701/H5N1_Transmission.html

More to think about:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/12/don-order-beggar-chicken.html

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Indonesia Confirms 92nd Bird Flu Fatality

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/12/indonesia-confirms-92nd-bird-flu.html

A 28-year-old Indonesian woman living on the outskirt city of Jakarta died of bird flu on Monday, the country's health ministry said here Tuesday.

"She died on Monday, two of her laboratory tests showed that she was positive of H5N1," he told Xinhua.

The official said that the woman was the seller of ornamental plants, had historical contact with feces of fowl.

"She mixed organic fertilizer made of feces of chickens with other material for media of plant," said Suyono.

I think that it is respectful to acknowledge the names of the dead. We do not know them. We only know how they died. Thank you to croftsblog for reminding us that they are real people. This woman had two children.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/12/indonesia-92nd.html

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Mapping Bird Flu (HPAI) in Egypt

When there is an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), like

H5N1, countries are supposed to fill out an OIE report. The OIE is to animals

what the WHO is to humans, sort of. OIE is concerned with animal health which

of course impacts on human health.

http://www.oie.int/eng/OIE/en_oie.htm

Based on the OIE reports, it possible to map the extent of H5N1 being reported in

domestic birds, and any wild birds that have tested positive.

The following are links provided by virologist, Dr. Henry Niman tracking the

poultry outbreaks in Egypt. If you look at the left side of the screen, you will

see the names of the villages involved. Each map represents over 200

outbreaks.

See for yourself. There has been a startling number of outbreaks in Egypt.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=114722&postcount=7

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=114826&postcount=8

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Russia

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/12/russia-now-reporting-bird-flu-in.html

Some 35,000 birds have died from bird flu since late November at a poultry farm in southern Russia's Rostov Region, a spokeswoman for the local emergencies ministry said Tuesday.

Marina Abramchenko said the birds started dying November 29 from the lethal H5N1 virus at the farm, which holds some 500,000 birds, adding that quarantine restrictions have been introduced in the area.

"We have received the preliminary results of analysis," Abramchenko said adding that the results showed traces of the H5N1 virus.

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Poland Selling Infected Eggs

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/12/poland-flu-viru.html

I really do not understand how things work over there. First they

sell infected meat. Now they have sold infected eggs? Sure, if

you cook them, it is supposed to be safe but would you buy them

if you knew they were infected? Handling them is a biohazard!

40,000 eggs from the H5N1-infected farms in Zuromin have been discovered on sale in groceries of Warmia and Mazury, north-east Poland.

2,500 were sold on Sunday, whereas 5,000 were withdrawn from sale.

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More on the Latest Chinese Case

This man seems to be recovering. He is, of course older, being 52. He is the

father of the 24 yr old who died recently. It seems that older people can get

this and recover but not so for the younger patients.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=115218&postcount=105

... the father was a retired regiment commander of the Nanjing Military Region, a critical division that covers the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, and Jiangxi.

It also faces Taiwan, China's rival, and is the front-line launching point for an assault on the island.

The young man's mother is a neurologist. Her contacts are under observation,

and quarantine, probably on Tamiflu as well. Looks like a lot of people, many

of them HCW, are under quarantine as the son's contacts are included.

The translator for the following link is Susan C, a retired physician from the

UK.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=115207&postcount=104

(As far as the reporter understands) all the residents of the building where LuWei lived are under quarantine and observation, with daily temperature taking, and various tests done.

The doctors and nurses who resuscitated Lu Wei's son at the Jiangsu People's hospital are all under medical observation and quarantine.

More than 60 healthcare workers at the Nanjiang neurology hospital who had contact with the deceased's mother are also under quarantine and observation.

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Indonesia

His age did not protect him. Mustang Al Kasiman, who we think was a 47 yr

old has died. I read somewhere that he was a business man.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=115262&postcount=28

A Indonesian man from an area west of the capital Jakarta died from bird flu on Thursday, an official said, bringing the total number of deaths in from the illness in Indonesia to 93.

The man, who had kept ducks at his home, had tested positive for bird flu and was being treated at a hospital in Jakarta, a Health Ministry official said on Wednesday.

Specializes in Too many to list.

First Human Cases of H5N1 in Pakistan

There had been unsubstantiated rumors of humans cases in Pakistan.

Now we have the names of these two brothers, who have already died.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/12/pakistans-first.html

For the first time in the history of Pakistan, Bird Flu influenza has been confirmed among human beings after two brothers died at a local hospital in Peshawar.

According to spokesman of Health Ministry, two brothers Muhammad Ilyas and Tariq working in a poultry farm in Mansera suffered flu, few days back that later turned to be critical in the form of Bird Flu influenza (H5N1).

They were admitted to a local hospital in Peshawar where on Monday they died.

UPDATE

The link has not been pulled to this story but the URL has changed, so for now, I will assume that it is factual until proven otherwise:

http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=121912

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12130703/H5N1_Pakistan_Cluster_Grows.html

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The Politics of Going to Pandemic Phase 4

Interesting commentary on the number of simultanous outbreaks of H5N1

and recent clusters of humans cases. Scott McPherson is the CIO of the

Florida House of Representatives.

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2007/12/13/pushing-the-button.html

WHO Pandemic Phase 4 is defined as "Evidence of increased human-to-human transmission." So what constitutes evidence?

Look at what is going on around the world, as we speak. There are multiple outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Poland. Egypt just went on alert against H5N1, and no one would ever fault the Egyptian government to be digging in against this foe. China goes on alert. Vietnam continues to wrestle with outbreaks. Pakistan culls poultry and then two humans die. Indonesia has no earthly idea how entrenched the virus is there. Russia culls hundreds of thousands of birds. Saudi Arabia is reporting new cases in poultry, as is Bangladesh. South Korea and China are battling localized outbreaks in poultry. And we haven't even gotten halfway through December!

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