PANDEMIC: A Stark Warning Based On Solid Science

"Michael Osterholm, the infectious disease expert who has been warning for a decade and a half that the world will face a pandemic, says the US is ill-prepared to combat the coronavirus due to a shortage of equipment and supplies."

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Specializes in Disaster Medicine / Public Health / School Health.

"Michael Osterholm, the infectious disease expert who has been warning for a decade and a half that the world will face a pandemic, says the US is ill-prepared to combat the coronavirus due to a shortage of equipment and supplies."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

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Specializes in Community health.

Not totally following this line of discussion:

“According to the World Health Organization(WHO), the case fatality rate in China to date is 3% to 4%. However, WHO has estimated it to be as low as 0.7% outside of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

In the US -- and in other upper and middle-income countries -- we may expect to see a case fatality rate equal to or higher to what we see in China.“

So the rate is 0.7% outside of Wuhan but we “may expect” to see a rate quintuple that? Why? He didn’t give any more info, he just made an assertion.

Edited to add: Okay you’re right about the book thing, I took out my snarky reference to his book.

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Specializes in Disaster Medicine / Public Health / School Health.

I didn’t see any book advertisement. Peter Bergen, a respected national security analyst, wrote the article and quoted and therefore appropriately cited the book Dr. Osterholm wrote.

Experts including Osterholm are stating COVID 19 is ten times deadlier (at least 1% fatality rate) than influenza (0.1%). We will know more as we test more.

In Italy, they are seeing an overall fatality rate of 6% and that rate has soared to 23% for patients aged 65 and older.

Hopefully, we will see an impact with mitigation measures and social distancing.

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The conversation is all over the place but I have heard a few experts say COVID 19 is far worse than the regular flu.

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Specializes in Critical care, tele, Medical-Surgical.

Selection of Protective PPE for Nurses and Other Health Care Workers Caring for Patients with COVID-19

As of February 12, 2020, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends, among other measures, that patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 should be isolated in a negative pressure isolation room. Nurses and other health care workers entering the isolation room to provide care to the patient should follow standard, contact, and airborne precautions, according to the CDC, which includes the following personal protective equipment (PPE): gloves, gowns, respiratory protection at least as protective as a fit-tested NIOSH-certified disposable N95 filtering facepiece respirator, and eye protection such as goggles or a disposable face shield.

However, the CDC’s PPE recommendations are not as protective as they should be. Much is still unknown about COVID-19 and the virus that causes it....

https://www.nationalnursesunited.org/sites/default/files/nnu/files/pdf/flyers/0220_NNU_HealthSafety_COVID-19_PPE_Report.pdf

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22 hours ago, CommunityRNBSN said:

So the rate is 0.7% outside of Wuhan but we “may expect” to see a rate quintuple that? Why?

What I've heard is that so much hinges on our hospital capacity. As it is, we are very close to capacity (before COVID-19). Jam in a pandemic and capacity is reached almost in a matter of seconds. That is the main reason I would say some researchers/scientists/doctors/nurses are saying the case fatality rate will be higher in places like the US (and is the reason it's higher in Italy than China - so far).

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YES IT ALL DEPENDS ON ICU VENTILATOR CAPACITY.

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What can ideas can we steal from South Korea?

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