Nursing Shortage: when is it going to happen??

Nurses General Nursing

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I am so disheartened to read that new grad nurses are STILL having an impossible time finding jobs. I decided a year ago to enter into nursing thinking that surely a year from then things would get better and I would see fewer desperate posts from new grad RN's. Well, it seems to not have changed at all and I am not into my 1st year of an 2 year RN program and am getting scared. I cannot afford to not be employed immediately following graduation as I am a single parent/sole provider. I know the reasons for why this is happening: nurses who were set to retire didnt, at the same time new grads being pumped out of schools, employers being in a position to be super picky as a result. But what I want to know is, is there anyone out there who may have done real research or is an economy buff who can give me an educated answer as to when this Nursing shortage is going to kick in, aka when will new grads again be in demand? It is sickening to me to read that RN's are looking for CNA positions and cant even get those. Someone please shed some hope on the situation???

Specializes in acute care.

The RNs at my hospital are always working short. Some specialties have a high turn over rate (hmmm, maybe if those nurses weren't so nasty to new employees, people would stay.)

When are new staff coming? Who knows. They better decide quickly because the current staff are leaving, one by one.

I know hospitals who constantly say that they have no positions for New Grads, all the while handing jobs over to NGs who 'new someone'.

I cannot wait for the day when hospitals will be begging nurses, new and experienced, to come work for them. Instead of us competing for positions in these hospitals, they will be competing for us.

Hopefully, then Nurses will come together and demand better wages, ratios and respect.

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The RNs at my hospital are always working short. Some specialties have a high turn over rate (hmmm, maybe if those nurses weren't so nasty to new employees, people would stay.)

When are new staff coming? Who knows. They better decide quickly because the current staff are leaving, one by one.

I know hospitals who constantly say that they have no positions for New Grads, all the while handing jobs over to NGs who 'new someone'.

I cannot wait for the day when hospitals will be begging nurses, new and experienced, to come work for them. Instead of us competing for positions in these hospitals, they will be competing for us.

Hopefully, then Nurses will come together and demand better wages, ratios and respect.

Amen!

I still don't think there is a shortage. It's all a lie. When it comes down to it, health care is a business and hospitals will make do with what they have. I have seen this firsthand in a few hospitals while I was in school. These hospitals laid a bunch of nurses off to make more money and still remained open for business. Why? Because people have no choice but to work because they have to pay bills and feed their children. I'm sure the conditions were terrible for the nurses who had to work double time because their fellow nurses got laid off, but I'm also pretty sure they were happy to keep their jobs. Unless patients in the hospital were dropping dead like flies, hospitals will continue this practice. The whole shortage talk is complete BS.

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Well I am not sure if I would consider myself an economic buff but I have researched this a bit on my own. The short answer to your question about when the nursing shortage will return is that it depends. There is currently conflicting data out there.

The most popular study is done by Peter Buerhaus. This also seems to be the one that is the most widely accepted among nursing academics. The study is "The Recent Surge in Nurse Employment: Causes and Implications," published in the July/August 2009 edition of Health Affairs.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/28/4/w657

"Because registered nurses over age 50 will soon be the largest age group in the nursing workforce, their retirement over the next decade will lead to a projected shortfall developing by 2018 and growing to approximately 260,000 registered nurses by 2025."

http://www.mc.vanderbilt.edu/news/releases.php?release=901

Peter Buerhaus has also commented that "In the near-term (next couple of years) we can expect that, until there is a strong jobs recovery, most hospitals and other employers will continue to find that they can employ all the RNs they want at prevailing wages."

http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media/newsreleases/2010/tricouncil.html

Another study done by Economic Modeling Specialist Inc. which isn't nearly as well known states that:

"In every state but Alaska and Nevada, there's projected to be an excess of registered nurses in each of the next five years. In some of the most heavily populated states-Florida, Pennsylvania, New York-the oversupply is especially noticeable. Pennsylvania, for example, is projected to need just over 4,000 nurses each year in our projection. Yet it produced 10,549 RNs in 2008-09."

http://www.economicmodeling.com/2010/06/11/comparing-the-output-of-nurses-with-estimated-demand/

"In 2008-09, the difference between the number of new nurses that graduated nationally and the number of estimated open nursing positions was nearly 86,000-that's 86,000 more nursing grads than nursing jobs." http://www.economicmodeling.com/2010/06/11/comparing-the-output-of-nurses-with-estimated-demand/

Now the Economic Modeling Specialist study has been attacked by the Tri-Council for Nursing which you can read here: http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media/newsreleases/2010/tricouncil.html

You can also read Economic Modeling Specialist Inc. defense of their study here: http://www.economicmodeling.com/2010/06/25/digging-deeper-into-data-on-registered-nurses/

You can also read the latest National Student Nursing Associations survey about job placement for new nurses. This currently shows no improvement in 2010 job placement for new grads from the numbers collected in 2009.

"Statistics for 2010 show no change in the number of employed/unemployed new graduates."

"When asked if they have an RN position, 54% said "yes" and 46% responded "no." By program type, the data revealed that 59% of the baccalaureate graduates, 51% of the associate degree graduates, 43% of accelerated BSN graduates, and 51% of the diploma graduates were employed as registered nurses." http://www.ajj.com/services/publishing/deansnotes/sep10.pdf

So in Summary:

Best Case Scenario: Shortage returns in 2018.

Worst Case Scenario: We are currently producing far more nurses than we actually need which if the trend continues indicates there will be no nursing shortage.

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Well I am not sure if I would consider myself an economic buff but I have researched this a bit on my own.

Best Case Scenario: Shortage returns in 2018.

Worst Case Scenario: We are currently producing far more nurses than we actually need which if the trend continues indicates there will be no nursing shortage.

Nice work. :o

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Specializes in ORTHOPAEDICS-CERTIFIED SINCE 89.

I am an OLD Nurse. I didn't graduate until I was just short of 30 and have been licensed for 36 years. I can tell you it is cyclical. There have been traumatic times about 6 times I can recall, usually around a presidential change.

When Clinton was first elected and tried a Medicare reform, our floor census (30 beds) averaged 3 to 4 patients.

I had already shelled out several thousand dollars for a trip to Europe and my NM told me I probably wouldn't have a job waiting as her budget was being drastically cut. I was gone nearly a month.

When I returned I did have a job and slowly, very slowly things got better. We still had to take days without pay, because no other floor needed our help and we had all exhausted vacation pay trying to eke out a paycheck.

Only a few years ago there was a "shortage" Nursing was thriving, then again it slowed and sorry to say now you younger ones are the ones who will have to wait it out.

But please be there when I next need help with my heart as the kind Nurses were 2 months ago. I only had one Nurse in a weeks stay who was not a new grad. But they were super. Stick with it. It is a cycle of life.

And as others say you may have to take a job you don't aspire to, love, want, but you do need the time in service. Do your best. Learn everything you can about everything you can. I'm a Certified Ortho Nurse, but I CAN do OB, oncology, renal,PACU, peds. Don't like any of them, but I still absorbed everything I could. You do the same please.

P

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