Interesting Prediction on the VB

Published

Specializes in Med-Surg,OPD ER,School/Clinic,Teaching.

Here's one website that posted a very interesting prediction on Visa Bulletin movement/numbers:

http://murthy.com/news/n_predic.html

Up Vote Up Vote ×

It really does not state anything about any help for those that are under the EB-3 category and that is what most nurses are under.

EB-2 is for at least Master's prepared and for a job that requires at least the Master's as entry for that job.

The EB-1 is for those at the scientist or professor range with a doctorate, etc. Or very special and needed qualifications.

Up Vote Up Vote ×

And a key part that many may not be aware of is that there are limits on the number of green cards that are issued per country, and the maximum is just under 10,000 per year and this includes dependents. Average nurse has one spouse and two children if you base it on "normal" family and therefore that means that only 2500 nurses or professionals would get the visa per year and their family members would get the other 7500 or so.

Look at the number that are just here on this forum and waiting for a visa from your country. Far exceeds that number, that is why you keep hearing of the three to five year wait for a chance at a visa. With the increase in the number of applicants each and every week, the odds of one getting a visa go down.

Up Vote Up Vote ×
Specializes in Med-Surg,OPD ER,School/Clinic,Teaching.
It really does not state anything about any help for those that are under the EB-3 category and that is what most nurses are under.

EB-2 is for at least Master's prepared and for a job that requires at least the Master's as entry for that job.

The EB-1 is for those at the scientist or professor range with a doctorate, etc. Or very special and needed qualifications.

Well, at least it mentions a prediction from someone who is the Chief of U.S. Department of State (DOS), Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on EB-3(it is written there before the conclusion).

Up Vote Up Vote ×

There have been quite a few predictions and educated guesses thus far. Even to the extent that EB3 ROW could possibly go current later on and then quickly retrogress again. The general consensus, including the one you have referred to, is that everything greatly depends how fast USCIS adjudicates I-485 cases. In fact, the reason why there is even forward movement at all in the last 2 VBs is that USCIS has not been keeping up at pace and so the US Dept. of State needs to forward the cut-off dates so that the consulates can pick up the slack or there will be wastage of visa numbers. It is said that USCIS historically has or can only adjudicate 85,000 I-485 cases (this includes dependents already) per fiscal year and so the US Dept. of State has to move the dates forward so that those undergoing CP can be given GCs as there are far less going through CP compared to AOS and therefore relatively faster if there is fair process.

There are more than 800,000 pending I-485 cases and if they will let USCIS do all of this on a 140,000 visa a year quota it will take them more or less 5 years. If they will let this happen, their won't be any forward movement at all. The forward movements are made to make sure those undergoing CP get their fair share of the visa numbers.

However, some are still confused about how GCs are given out. USCIS actually do not give out the GCs. They only process the petitions.

Everything has to be complete plus their PD to be current to be given a GC.

*Some examples of scenarios for those undergoing AOS:

a) Completed or approved I-140 and I-485 + Complete FBI name check

+ current PD base on the Visa Bulletin = GC

b) Completed or approved I-140 and I-485 + no FBI name check yet

(limit of 6 mos. now) + current PD base on the Visa Bulletin = no GC

c) Completed or approved I-140 and I-485 + Complete FBI name check +

PD not current base on the Visa Bulletin = no GC

d) Either I-140 or I-485 was denied = start all over.

The I-485 can only be filed if the visa category is current. So, if the I-485 was denied and the visa category is not

anymore current then they cannot re-file the I-485 again until it becomes current again.

e) If I-485 was denied due to dual-intent = leave the US

* For CP:

Everything has to go through all the way until the interview date in the consulate or US Embassy + current PD base on the Visa Bulletin to be given a GC.

Anyone with no approved I-140, or if NVC has not processed visa fee bill and forwarded case to respective US Embassy/consulate of country of birth, will not have GC as well even if the PD becomes current. The cut-off date may even go as far as being current but if the case is incomplete or not even forwarded to the US Embassy yet for a scheduled interview then no GC.

Up Vote Up Vote ×

Hi Lawrence01,

In your opinion, when do you think EB3 ROW will be current, if ever it happens in this fiscal year? How long do you think it will stay current? for a month?

Up Vote Up Vote ×

Do not expect it to be current in any way during this fiscal year, which only has six more months to it. There are many petitions that were accepted and no visas for them if you have been reading about the fiasco that occurred last summer and those people that did get in when the open window existed are going to be waiting years for their visa, not months.

The focus on the article that is being discussed here has to deal primarily with those that hold the Master's degree of the Doctorate and significant experience.

There are too many that are waiting for things to become current for most countries. The government here goes by country of birth and that alone in determining the issuance of the visa; they have restrictions in place as to the number that are issued per year for each country.

Up Vote Up Vote ×

Unless one has complete approval on their file, up until the appointment with the US Embassy; then there will be no way that they have a chance at a visa at all. They also need to have a current PD date. And if you look at the dates being current now, they are several years back and there has been a huge flood in the number of applicants due to the significant increase in nurses in some countries.

Up Vote Up Vote ×
Hi Lawrence01,

In your opinion, when do you think EB3 ROW will be current, if ever it happens in this fiscal year? How long do you think it will stay current? for a month?

No one knows. Even the US State Dept. do not know. That is why they set the cut-off dates every month. The one in charge of setting the cut-off dates do not even know for sure until 1 week or so before they publicly release the actual visa bulletin. He has to wait for the latest data coming from the concerned agencies such as USCIS and the NVC and then make an estimation.

Up Vote Up Vote ×

That is true that no one knows for sure but they asked for this fiscal year and definitely do not expect it that the retrogression will be over within 6 months. Just not going to happen and that is what will be needed for things to be considered current for all areas.

Up Vote Up Vote ×

And with 800,000 pending just from the AOS fiasco of last summer, there is no way that things can be current in six months. Just purely impossible from even a math standpoint.

Add into it that it is an election year, and it is not going to happen.

Up Vote Up Vote ×

Also adding as an FYI. Word is that the USCIS Staff that do I-485 adjudications are being moved to help adjudicate the naturalization cases.

This is of course related to the up-coming elections. This means possible slowing down or even freezing of pending I-485 cases in the coming months. This of course means the backlog for I-485s will slightly get worse as those will not be touched in the coming months leading to the elections.

Up Vote Up Vote ×
+ Join the Discussion