RN labor supply: Are we in a bubble?

Nurses General Nursing

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Interesting article in today's New England Journal of Medicine.

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1200641?query=TOC

Hmmm, well Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami is set to lay off over 1000 employees next month and 400 of those will be nurses!

I thank goodness that I have my full time business job still and a business degree to fall back on just in case I can't find a nursing job.

Specializes in SICU.

in thelast 2 years my unit has been on a hiring binge. we have between 2 to 4 new nursesto be oriented to the icu every 3 months. it is taking a huge toll on the experiencednurses having to continually precept. at the moment we have core experiencedgroups that are mostly in their late 40's to mid-50's, some of which willretire from nursing if the economy improves. we have a few in their 30's, allof which are going back to school, so they can get out of bedside nursing. thenwe have the expanding group of 20 year olds. unfortunately when i talk withthem, not one of them thinks that they will still be an icu nurse in 5 years’time. they all have plans to go to np school or crna school, most have alreadystarted that journey.

so yes, if the economy improves there will be a shortage of nurses will to workunder current conditions. however, the difference in the shortage of the futurecompared with the past will be in experienced nurses (those with more than afew years of bedside experience). the schools will still turn out massiveamounts of new nurses to fill the warm body slots.

Do you think that this time there will be a recovery? I don't. Never before this nation been so far in debt that we have to continue to borrow money and print money to pay for Medicare/Medicaid. The US is to far over its head, so that is why there are cuts in reimbursement. The media will say the economy is doing slightly better. They look at the stock market and think that effects us, but in reality it doesn't. They will say the economy is doing slightly better because it's election year, but look at gas prices continue to skyrocket and as well as the cost of living. The stock market means nothing to a hospital when they loss 10 million dollars in one quarter like mine did. Hospitals are losing money because there is a huge influx of patients who don't pay while Medicare and Medicaid say they won't reimburse more, but less. We, well at least I, am starting to feel the effects of a bad economy. It just took several years to become a reality, and it's just going to get worst for nurses.

Specializes in Med Surg - Renal.
Do you think that this time there will be a recovery? I don't..

Every generation of Americans since the very first thought the end was near and the country would never recover. They were wrong.

So are you.

And, yes, I am aware that there is no amount of historical data, explanation of economic cycles, or currently released data that will change your mind. The sky will always be falling in some people's world.

Specializes in PACU.
I think we are definitely in a bubble. I think the article is a little optimistic about the recovery and when.......but those of us in nursing have seen this phenomenon before. When the economy improves those who flocked her as a form of refuge from the storm, leave as soon as the opportunity arises as they really don't like beign a nurse at all.

Use old bats are eventually going to HAVE to retire eventually or even die out of our positions (kidding...;) sort of) It will leave a gap. The problem is there is no way to predict when this will happen or have nurses "in the wings" waiting to help out. There will be another shortage again and I believe there will be another boon, I just don't think it wil be like the last one....but you never know.

There is a glut now and continuing to crank out nurses will not stay the renewal of a shrotage. Mnay will not wait and will find other employment and never return. The answer to the problem? I have no idea....but the shortage wll eventually return. I'm down with the articles date of 2017.

Grntea...kind of proves what I have been saying all along...;)

Yeah, you certainly can't have licensed but inexperienced nurses waiting for some day when there may be a shortage. New grads are clueless enough as is (not trying to knock them; they learn what they're taught), and from what I've heard there has been a further reduction in clinical training quality even in the 7 years I've been a student and a nurse. Add in years of no significant nursing experience and it would take forever to train those folks up to any sort of competence.

Specializes in Critical Care, ED, Cath lab, CTPAC,Trauma.
Yeah, you certainly can't have licensed but inexperienced nurses waiting for some day when there may be a shortage. New grads are clueless enough as is (not trying to knock them; they learn what they're taught), and from what I've heard there has been a further reduction in clinical training quality even in the 7 years I've been a student and a nurse. Add in years of no significant nursing experience and it would take forever to train those folks up to any sort of competence.

What has happened in the past is that these "trained nurses" move on. They go into pharmaceuticals, medical device inservice training, insurance Co. They leave the profession, that is why when the economy improves there is a shortage because they are gone and don't want to return when "needed" and the cycle begins again.

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