Swine flu raises fear of pandemic - Adults and Children

nursesarah · Apr 28, 2009

You're right, RSV kills about 4500 people per year, the "swine" flu has killed 149, if that.

Yeah, good point. But let's just look critically at that. RSV kills about 4500 people per year. 4500 people in 52 weeks. That's roughly 82 people/week.

The first death from the swine flu was about 2 weeks ago. So you could do an average and say that the swine flu has killed 74 people/week. Except for the fact that as of the 25th the death toll was at 81. So that means in 3 days, the number of people that have died has almost doubled.

It's not the number of deaths that's scary, it's the rate at which it's spreading. A week ago, no one had heard of the swine flu.

Personally, I'm not all that worried. I should be because I'm in the prime age bracket for getting sick and dying. But the way I figure it, if the flu doesn't kill me, I'll fry because of global warming. If that doesn't happen, I'm gonna lose everything I have because of the economy anyways. Then there's always the anti-christ and armageddon to worry about.

:cheers: I'm gonna go get drunk.

Multicollinearity, BSN, RN · Apr 28, 2009

This is a suspected case, not confirmed. If someone has an acute respiratory infection and meet certain criteria, it is considered suspicious. The state then tests the specimen and determines if it seems positive for swine flu. It is is, then it is upgraded to probably, and sent to the CDC where it may or may not be confirmed.
So there isn't a confirmed case yet. This is where the media really needs to be more responsible, as well as those in the hospital-they need to learn the correct terminology in discussing these things because of leaks and the ever-present media.

Hmm. That link I posted earlier this morning has been updated and deleted. Wish I would have quoted a section of the text. It appears the news channel is back-tracking.

cursedandblessed · Apr 28, 2009

i'm on a study break. they're saying there are at least two "probable cases" at the school near newberry, sc. tested + for type a but apparently our dhec test can't get any more specific so they're sending it off to cdc i think it was.

i'm stocking up on essentials: diet soda, bp meds and bcp's, sent the hubby to buy some cat food(they were out, anyway). (sorry i shouldn't have such a lack of feeling).

the ad on the side has changed from masks to something about washing your hands. lordy, i wash my hands 50-200 times a day minimum, if i wash them anymore there won't be any skin left on them. i'm the one who points out the shopping cart wipes are out at the store. yes, that's me at the front of the grocery store, wiping down the shopping cart handle seat, etc. "hey mr. k, it's that crazy lady with the cart cleaning fetish again!!"

HonestRN · Apr 28, 2009

First confirmed case in Indiana. Notre Dame student who has NOT been to Mexico.

"INDIANAPOLIS | State officials said Tuesday that Indiana's first confirmed case of swine flu is a Notre Dame student in St. Joseph County. The state health commissioner says the person is "doing well."

Health Commissioner Judy Monroe said the ill person had not recently traveled to Mexico, where more than 150 people are believed to have died from the flu strain, and that the state agency was investigating how the person might have acquired the illness."

http://nwitimes.com/articles/2009/04/28/updates/breaking_news/doc49f720b2ec660720930896.txt

azhiker96, BSN, RN · Apr 28, 2009

I saw that 25% of the federal stockpile of Tamiflu and Relenza is being released. I'm glad they're holding some back because I'm still worried about the bird flu. I guess we'll know in a year or two but what if this is the first hit of a one two combination punch. I could see some countries using up the stockpiles of antivirals for the swine flu and then get hit by a mutated bird flu. Comparing the virulence of the two is like comparing a .45 bullet to a good dutch rub.

Multicollinearity, BSN, RN · Apr 28, 2009

... mis-read

oramar · Apr 28, 2009

The Spanish flu killed 40 million in th 1900s, the HK flu about a million a few decades back. With our current population, this would translate to a nightmare.

I remember HK very well, have posted about it. Was a young LPN working then, plus a young mom. It made it's first pass in 1968. I didn't get it that time, even though I was working. It came roaring back in 1972, for some reason on this pass I caught it. Every one in my family got it plus my year and half old son. You can't imagine how sick it made people. Recovery took weeks if not months. That was a nasty virus, I can't imagine what the virus of early 20th century was like since they say it was worse.

indigo girl · Apr 28, 2009

Where Will the Swine Flu Go Next?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/opinion/28barry.html

Here is an opinion piece from John Barry, the author of "The Great Influenza". Even though he is not a virologist, he is very knowledgeable about pandemics, and is often asked to speak along with epidemeologists, and experts on influenza. He has obviously spent much time with the subject.

I think that he may well be correct. A vaccine will be necessary.

AS the swine flu threatens to become the next pandemic, the biggest questions are whether its transmission from human to human will be sustained and, if so, how virulent it might become. But even if this virus were to peter out soon, there is a strong possibility it would only go underground, quietly continuing to infect some people while becoming better adapted to humans, and then explode around the world.
Mutability makes even existing, well-known flu viruses unpredictable. A new virus, formed by a combination of several existing ones as this virus is, is even less predictable. After jumping to a new host, influenza can become more or less virulent-in fact, different offshoots could go in opposite directions-before a relatively stable new virus emerges.
What's important to keep in mind in assessing the threat of the current outbreak is that all four of the well-known pandemics seem to have come in waves. The 1918 virus surfaced by March and set in motion a spring and summer wave that hit some communities and skipped others. This first wave was extremely mild, more so even than ordinary influenza: of the 10,313 sailors in the British Grand Fleet who became ill, for example, only four died. But autumn brought a second, more lethal wave, which was followed by a less severe third wave in early 1919.
The first wave in 1918 was relatively mild, many experts speculate, because the virus had not fully adapted to humans. And as it did adapt, it also became more lethal. However, there is very good evidence that people who were exposed during the first wave developed immunity-much as people get protection from a modern vaccine.
A similar kind of immune-building process is the most likely explanation for why, in 1918, only 2 percent of those who contracted the flu died. Having been exposed to other influenza viruses, most people had built up some protection. People in isolated regions, including American Indian reservations and Alaskan Inuit villages, had much higher case mortality-presumably because they had less exposure to influenza viruses.
In all four instances, the gap between the time the virus was first recognized and a second, more dangerous wave swelled was about six months. It will take a minimum of four months to produce vaccine in any volume, possibly longer, and much longer than that to produce enough vaccine to protect most Americans. The race has begun.

indigo girl · Apr 28, 2009

Why Don't We Do It in Our Sleeves?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wju7F5ytk6M

This little video is making the rounds again. It's cute, effective, and good to show your kids.

Multicollinearity, BSN, RN · Apr 28, 2009

Indigo,

What have you read about pandemic flu/cytokine storm, and the use of steroids?

indigo girl · Apr 28, 2009

That's a good question. Mostly that steroids do not work for cytokine storm. Now you can check this link for why that is so with my apologies for having to plow thru a research study. Just skim the study and go to the comments. There are some very interesting suggestions by the posters. They are talking about the cytokine storm in the context H5N1, avian influenza, but this is probably what is happening to some of the 20 to 40 year old patients in Mexico also.

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/07/cytokine_storm_revisited.php

For anyone who does not understand what cytokine storm is, the Reveres tell the story of a drug trial that put volunteers into that

state. They describe what happens to the body in cytokine storm.

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2006/10/a_cautionary_tale_about_cytoki.php

Multicollinearity, BSN, RN · Apr 28, 2009

That's a good question. Mostly that steroids do not work for cytokine storm. Now you can check this link for why that is so with my apologies for having to plow thru a research study. Just skim the study and go to the comments. There are some very interesting suggestions by the posters. They are talking about the cytokine storm in the context H5N1, avian influenza, but this is probably what is happening to some of the 20 to 40 year old patients in Mexico also.
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/07/cytokine_storm_revisited.php
For anyone who does not understand what cytokine storm is, the Reveres tell the story of a drug trial that put volunteers into that
state. They describe what happens to the body in cytokine storm.
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2006/10/a_cautionary_tale_about_cytoki.php

Very interesting! Thank you.