End of the Nursing Shortage

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Everyone seems to be turning to nursing. I remember way back when (5 years ago) when nursing was a calling. There were still other jobs a person could do and make a living--like heating and air conditioning. Now nursing is a lifeboat--a recesion-proof job that anyone and everyone is considering.

I see post after post in here of people who have no experience, no particular desire, and no particular aptitude for nursing inquiring about nursing as a job. They need something to pay the bills. I just went to a restaurant tonight, and two of our waiters are starting nursing school.

Let's face it, with the coming depression, nursing wages are attractive. So here's a prediction, please tell me if you agree or disagree:

  1. Nursing boards will start requiring a 4-year degree to sit for the NCLEX.
  2. The Nursing shortage is going to end in about 3 years; in five there will be a glut of nurses and getting a job will be about like getting a job as an NP is now.
  3. Travel agencies will cease to exist and agency nursing will go the way of the way of the dinosaur.
  4. Without unions, hospitals will force nurses to take about 14 patients a shift and will simply fire those who won't do it.

What do you think?

I think we're in for an economic landscape that no one has ever experienced before. In the past, there was always technological advances or wars that brought us out of depressions. This time, there ain't going to be either. Wars cost too much to fight on a large scale and frankly there isn't any more inventions left to pull us out.

I know there are some with pie-in-the-sky ideas about science that suggest we will always be advancing forward, but think about it: what else is there to advance to? What else can come along that will make as big of economic advance as, say, electricity or the automobile, or robotics, or the internet. There's nothing else out there--nothing that we need or want anyway.

I fantasize that they could invent teleportation and move things around like with the teleporter on Star Trek, but that's never going to be real. We could find an alternative fuel that is as powerful and plentiful as oil, and all the industries that could come from that discovery would be a huge boon to our economy, but I think we all know that isn't going to happen.

Nothing is going to make houses worth what they were, again. Nothing can. Nothing is going to produce entire industries like the internet did. Nothing is out there. We are coming to an end of sorts, and I don't know where we are going to go from there.

So, no, this is not a depression, not like the great depression. But it might be a slow leak that will go on and on and on. Gluttony and greed, it would seem, are self-limiting.

I agree somewhat that we are on the downward side of prosperity, the late 90s was probably the last GREAT economic boom the USA will see, at least for decades. There is a fairly recent book called "The End of Prosperity" that sort of covers that. Hoever, there won't be great suffering for decades, I think we will recess for a year or two, and then things will level off. I hope we learned our lesson as a society that unfettered risk taking eventually catches up, but eventually, things will cycle back a little bit. Not to where we were, just an overall stabilization of home values and wages at levels below their peaks.

There are things we could do as a nation, not necessarily from a technological standpoint, but in reforming our monetary and tax systems to spur massive growth. That would require Washington to remove its head from you know where though. There are ways to spur growth with the basic technology we have, and without starting WWIII.

As for your point about techological advancements being a thing of the past, I couldn't disagree more. There will always be technological advances, and people will always think that there isn't much more to advance towards. There are tons of things that we as a society not only want, but need. Cleaner, more efficient renewable energy for one, which not only will happen, but already is. It doesn't have to be some space age futuristic chemical compound, we are in the process of learning how to better harness the power of the sun, wind, and other sources. If the USA became truly independent of foreign oil, or oil at all for that matter, it would mean amazing things for our overall economy. While there may not be an invention LIKE the internet looming out there, there is the Internet 2.0, which will mean everybody will go out an buy new computers and equipment. Technology for our automobiles will continue to advance, etc.

To put it into perspective, the people who rode in horses and buggies and used candles for light probably thought just like you - that there was nothing else out there. Do you think Christopher Columbus invisioned that someday people would float around on steel ships the size of a large town? The Wright Brothers couldn't have imagined that Jumbo Jets would fly people nonstop from the US to China. Frankly, we don't know what is out there. Our descendents could be driving hovercrafts some day. It seems far fetched now, but motorized vehicles probably never even occurred to people in the "olden days". My point is, it's silly to say that there is nothing out there that society wants or needs in terms of technology. We will always have scientists and engineers finding ways to do things bigger and better.

Specializes in ICU.
Everyone seems to be turning to nursing. I remember way back when (5 years ago) when nursing was a calling. There were still other jobs a person could do and make a living--like heating and air conditioning. Now nursing is a lifeboat--a recesion-proof job that anyone and everyone is considering.

I see post after post in here of people who have no experience, no particular desire, and no particular aptitude for nursing inquiring about nursing as a job. They need something to pay the bills. I just went to a restaurant tonight, and two of our waiters are starting nursing school.

With all due respect, how do you know that the two waiters did not have "the calling"?

Just because people are in school now, or applying for a program in hard times does not mean they are just in it for the money.

Besides, is it not possible to have "the calling" AND want to support your family?

Specializes in Med/Surg,.
Wow! what a great thread. Thanks Flightline.

The numbers don't lie. There are not enough nurses to meet healthcare requirements today. Nursing has one of the highest 'participation rates' of any profession. The majority of those 500,000 non-working urses that were mentioned in an earlier post are probably not able to work; inactive too long, physical limitations, fully occupied with other responsibilities, etc.

I may be wrong, but if I'm correct: This 500,000 number came from the government's nursing population study. It was 500,000 RN with *active* licenses, physically able, that choose not to work in nursing mostly for pay, working conditions, and maternity. I don't know how it broke down. I think it's was estimates made off from a sample. A newer RN population study should be out soon I believe....

:twocents:

Specializes in ICU.
With all due respect, how do you know that the two waiters did not have "the calling"?

Just because people are in school now, or applying for a program in hard times does not mean they are just in it for the money.

Besides, is it not possible to have "the calling" AND want to support your family?

Did I say that nursing has to be a calling? If I did I was wrong. It seems to me God calls and we become what He calls us to be whether we want to or not. We simply don't have much choice in the matter.

As for the waiters: it just seems that everyone is looking at nursing thesed days.

I agree 100%!:cry:

It's naieve to assume nursing is a calling. Every nurse I know, including myself, is in it for the money.

But it's true that the nursing schools have turned into a faucet that can't shut off. Small rural towns are graduating two classes a year of about 30 students each. That will fill up an area pretty quick and help the companies keep salaries low. Who cares about retaining nurses when there is a batch of fresh blood every few months willing to work for less than what they would have had to pay that other nurse who had been there a year?

Specializes in TELE / ER/PACU/ICU.

I do not think anyone speaking out regarding new nurses and those wanting to become a nurse is "eating their young". That comes at the hospital when you are working your tail off and do not have time to take a sip of water let alone answer questions. Personally, no one tried to eat me. Quite the opposite actually. Everyone as helpful as they could be and it helpe that I was willing to return the favor.

Now, back to the topic. A large hospital in my city recently opened a new cardiology wing and in discussions with recruiters they indicated receiving more than double qualified applicants to open positions. Note the word qualified. They prefer BSN and experience, so hard telling how many people actually applied. Granted some of these folks probably were already employed in this system, but I found it telling.

I think there is and will continue to be a shortage, but only in specific areas such as skilled nursing, nursing homes, LTC and the like. God bless the people that do this work, because it is not for me.

School are in fact churning out students like never before and I am confident there are a good number of people who are going because of the short work week, "good" pay and job security. Some of these folks will stay in because they do not have any other option, while others will burn out. I always tell people considering going the nursing route that there is much more to it than 4 days off and job security. It's a tough job to say the least.

It's naieve to assume nursing is a calling. Every nurse I know, including myself, is in it for the money.

But it's true that the nursing schools have turned into a faucet that can't shut off. Small rural towns are graduating two classes a year of about 30 students each. That will fill up an area pretty quick and help the companies keep salaries low. Who cares about retaining nurses when there is a batch of fresh blood every few months willing to work for less than what they would have had to pay that other nurse who had been there a year?

I'd like to see these towns. I live in a "small, rural town." My nursing school is five minutes down the road at a community college. My school graduates about 25 students a year. Not 60. It's very limited. You can only apply and be accepted every fall semester.. Plenty of people trying to get in and not many people getting in. Who's to say that the people graduating from these small schools aren't relocating? Once I'm done with school, I intend on picking up and going somewhere else.

Our quality of education is excellent and our teachers are hard on us. We are not being "churned out." We are being taught how to be smart, questioning, put-up-with-no-crap critical thinking nurses. Many hospitals seek out people who have graduated from our program.

But I do agree with you that nursing does not have to be a calling so we have some common ground! :D

Specializes in Mixed Level-1 ICU.

The notion that nursing is a "calling" has done more to undermine the progress of nursing than just about anything.

It is a noble notion, but nursing is a very hard profession. Of course, the harder it becomes the more it is considered a calling. For only those who are truly passionate about it remain unscathed by its morphing into a conglomeration more of tasks and indirect duties than of patient care.

It is being made so hard to do what is expected of us we now re-characterize the job and somehow think it is now nobler than ever to follow the path.

Listen, the fallout is that patients are getting worse care...period.

If a calling means you will stay late, skip breaks, ignore your bladder,

accept whatever nursing sends down the pike as yet another task for nursing, then you are damning all those who follow to the same hell...uhhh, I mean calling.

Hmmm...I feel better now.

Specializes in Med Surg/Ortho.
I think we're in for an economic landscape that no one has ever experienced before. In the past, there was always technological advances or wars that brought us out of depressions. This time, there ain't going to be either. Wars cost too much to fight on a large scale and frankly there isn't any more inventions left to pull us out.

I know there are some with pie-in-the-sky ideas about science that suggest we will always be advancing forward, but think about it: what else is there to advance to? What else can come along that will make as big of economic advance as, say, electricity or the automobile, or robotics, or the internet. There's nothing else out there--nothing that we need or want anyway.

I fantasize that they could invent teleportation and move things around like with the teleporter on Star Trek, but that's never going to be real. We could find an alternative fuel that is as powerful and plentiful as oil, and all the industries that could come from that discovery would be a huge boon to our economy, but I think we all know that isn't going to happen.

Unless you are working in the fields of science and technology, you have no idea what type of advances are in store. Just because you can't think of anything new that could be discovered or invented, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Think about before there was electricity, cars, cell phones, Wii...people in the past had no idea things like this were possible. You have no idea what is in store for the future. I think the human mind is incredible, and we have so many possibilities. The human race isn't through yet my friend.

Our quality of education is excellent and our teachers are hard on us. We are not being "churned out." We are being taught how to be smart, questioning, put-up-with-no-crap critical thinking nurses. Many hospitals seek out people who have graduated from our program.

But I do agree with you that nursing does not have to be a calling so we have some common ground! :D

At least a third of the Tennessee Technology Centers are located in whistle stop towns (Livingston and McMinnville, for example.) Probably more.

They're churning (yes! churning!) out two classes a year, and the last I heard there were a lot more students getting through than back when I graduated in 2000.

I could get on a soap box about the characters I've seen come out of these schools (but I don't feel like getting into it right now.)

What else would they do? Jobs are scarce. I don't blame them. At the same time we just have to face what this means: a surplus.

Specializes in Med Surg/Ortho.

Yes, lots of people are thinking about nursing these days...a stable job, decent wages, and a shorter degree. What is not to like. But I think many factors weed out a lot of the people that aren't doing it for the right reasons and/or wouldn't be a good nurse. The long wait lists, the numerous pre-reqs. Nursing schools (at least in my area) are quite competitive. I was annoyed about this at first, but now I believe it is a blessing. No one should go lightly into nursing. It isn't a profession for the weak. Many will drop out in school, or not make it their first year in nursing. Even people with a "calling" for it, might not be cut out for it...they like the idea of helping people, but abusive patients, body fluids, and the such will turn off some of these people as well. But we will always need nurses. Nurses leave the field all the time, more are retiring. Many hospitals have poor conditions that don't retain good nurses. With medical advances and more people surving illnesses and injuries that couldn't before, and people living longer, the need for quality nurses is probably at a high.

Specializes in OB, NICU, Nursing Education (academic).

I am nursing faculty at a rural college program. Not only do we not "churn" students out....it wouldn't be prudent to do so. We maintain strict admission standards, students have to pass each class with a 76% or better, AND take HESI exams to progress each semester. After all, my program (and every other program out there) will only continue to exist if they maintain standards for 1st time NCLEX success set down by each states' board of nursing.

We graduate approximately 20-25 students per year (from an incoming class capped at 30 due to faculty availability.....or you might want to say lack thereof). EVERY ONE of our graduates from May 2008 is currently employed as an RN.....and there are still openings at our local hospital. Imagine!

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