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scenario:
h5n1 (the bird flu) mutates to become efficient at transmitting human to human causing a pandemic, with a case fatality rate of 60% and with 80% of the cases in the 0-40 year old age range.
hospitals will be quickly overrun. hospital staff shortages are 50%. the government orders all nurses to work. there is not enough personal protection equipment (n95 masks, gloves, goggles, tamiflu, vax, etc)
home quarantines become common (in the fed plans).
your family is also quarantined in your home. you are running out of food and the government promises you will be "taken care of" if you report to work.
I can not read this as any more than just hysteria. Just can't take this very seriously. Maybe I have been around this planet too long. Not a very realistic senario at all.
Here is a list of deaths in just the one country of Indonesia alone since 2005.
Look at their ages. They died of influenza, H5N1, bird flu.
The confirmed deaths are facts, but there are many suspect cases also.
The case fatality rate in this one country is over 80%.
WHO-confirmed deaths in Indonesia, by month.
Plus [notes of deaths which were unconfirmed but suspected H5N1].
July '05 --- 2 (38M, 8F) confirmed death, [+1 UNCONFIRMED -- 1 death of family member]
Aug '05 --- 0
Sept '05 -- 3 (37F, 27F, 23M) confirmed
Oct '05 --- 1 (19F) confirmed
Nov '05 --- 4 (16F, 20F, 35M, 16?) confirmed, [+2 UNCONFIRMED -- 2 deaths of family members]
Dec '05 --- 2 (8M, 39M) confirmed
Jan '06 --- 4 (29F, 13F, 4M, 22M) confirmed, [+1 UNCONFIRMED -- 39M {Masalis, Jan 2}]
Feb '06 --- 6 (15M, 22F, 27F, 23M, 27F, 3M) confirmed, [+10 UNCONFIRMED -- 38F {Wati, Feb 6}, 26M {Risma, Feb 9}, 27M {Ubaidillah Ahmad, Feb 12}, 15F {Linawati, Feb 16}, 27M {Dede Wise, Feb 16}, 1Y {Fadli Ahmad, Feb 26}, 35F {NY Ami, Feb 18}, 1Y {Habibah, Feb 20}, 10Y {Nandya Kurnianan, Feb 28}, 11M {Bayu Destianto, Feb 28}]
Mar '06 --- 3 (12F, 1F, 5M) confirmed, [+7 UNCONFIRMED -- 3M {Wahju Kurniawan, Mar 2}, 10M {Cahyono, Mar 4}, 4M {Harnes, Mar 6}, 42M {M. Yussuf, Mar 14},
April '06 --- 2 (24M, 30M) confirmed, [+6 UNCONFIRMED -- 35F {"H", April 2}, 2YO {RNR, April 9}, 23M {April 23, Fahmi Fajar}, 1YO {H, April 22}, {Fakhruddin, April 16 + other family}]
May '06 --- 12 (17M, 28F, 15M, 10M, 1F, 38F, 12M, 32M, 10F, 18M, 38M, 15M) confirmed, [+5 UNCONFIRMED -- 38F {Praise/Puji Beru Ginting, May 4}, 20M {Aris Ashar, May 20}, 30M {Pulang Young, May 19}, ?M, Papua Province, 10M {Toni Ramdani, May 28}]
June '06 --- 4 (7F, 13M, 5M, 14F) confirmed, [+9 UNCONFIRMED -- 4 {Yudha, June 9}, 4 {Yudhi, June 10}, 5 {Masyani, June 11}, two sisters of 15yo {June 14 and June 22}, 1M {Adtya, brother of Rizal, June 20?}, 17? {Andri Winarti, sibling of Akira, June 15}, 56F {Hj Sukria, mother of Akira, June 22}, 1F {Ma, from Takaran, June 5}]
July '06 --- 2 (3F, 44M) confirmed, [+2 UNCONFIRMED - 8? {Tyo Styoningpuji, July 6}, 4M {Sardi, July 31}]
Aug '06 --- 4 (16M, 17F, 9F, 35F) confirmed, [+5 UNCONFIRMED -- 13F {Rubiyah, Aug 1}, 20M {Misbah, cousin of Umar Aup, August 6}, ?F {wife of Suwardi, Bekasi, Aug 10}, 9F {Dea Amalia, Aug 14}, Dede {villager in Cicadas}]
Sept '06 --- 3 (11M, 9M, 20M) confirmed, [+3 UNCONFIRMED -- 2M {Risman Husni, N. Sulawesi, Sept.13}, 23M {Indra Jayakusuma (older brother of Zakaria), Sept. 24}, 11F {Marlina Bt Sitorus (child of family of 5 in RSU Adam), Sept 18}]
Oct '06 --- 3 (27F, 11M, 67F) confirmed, [+7 UNCONFIRMED -- 1F {Farida, possible measles, Oct. 6}, 2 months {Fajrin (from Bontopaddingin, Sulawesi) Oct.15}, 5 {M. Pious (RSUD Takaran, from A the Buji Frog), Oct. 15}, 4 {"The Dawn" (from Parangtambung, Sulawesi), Oct. 16}, 7 {Wiji Riyati, Oct. 21}, 4 {Yusuf Maudana, Oct. 21}, ? {from S. Sulawesi, admitted with Ilyas, Oct. 31]
Nov '06 --- 2 (2M, 35F) confirmed, [+3 UNCONFIRMED - 17M {Juanto/Juwarto, in Public Hospital Purkwokerto, E. Java, Nov. 6}, 6/2 child {OS/OR/SS, Medan, RSUP Adam, Nov. 15}, "a child" {from Ciledug, Tangerang of Banten - older brother in hospital, child died Nov. 24}]
Dec '06 --- 0 confirmed, [+1 UNCONFIRMED - 3F {Febri, from Benai Subdistrict, RSUD Telukkuatan, Riau, died 12/13}]
Jan '07 --- 6 (14M, 37F, 22F, 27F, 32F, 6F) confirmed, [+5 UNCONFIRMED - 46F {Sumiah unnamed patient, from RSDK, Semarang, died 1/13}, ?? {Unamed patient, died 1/16}, 20F {Okta/Otafika, died in RSPI Sulianti Saroso, N. Jakarta, died 1/21}, 10F {Joni Iskandar, Pancawara Village, Way Serdang Subdistrict, Tulang Bewang, Sumatra died 1/30}, age? {Lengkong Makarao, in RS Prof. Kandou, Manado, North Sulawesi, died 1/30}]
Feb '07 - 1 (20F) confirmed, [+4 UNCONFIRMED - 9M {Supandi, died in Dr. Slamet Garut, died 2/11}, 26M {Tata Mulyana, died in Hasan Sadikin on 2/21, policeman from Ciruluk Village}, 8-month-old {Nasiah, died in Mahammad Jamil on 2/23, West Sumatra}, 12M {Casmudi bin Ali, died on 2/27, from Bangas, Indramayu, W. Java}]
Mar '07 - 7 (20F, 32M, 22F, 16M, 39M, 14M, 29F) confirmed, [+3 UNCONFIRMED - 46M {Tambai Hadi, date of death unknown, younger brother of WH (confirmed), died after two weeks of sickness}, 17F {Nesya, died 3/30?, from West Sumatra}, 6/16F {Siti Rohayati, died 3/30 in Abdoel Moeloek Hospital, Banda Lampung, from Tulang Bawang Regency}]
April '07 - 3 (23F, 15F, 29M) confirmed, [+5 UNCONFIRMED - 3M {Edward, died 4/3? in RS Prince?, Grogot, from Balikpapan}, 2M {Erpan, died 4/3? in RS Prince?, Grogot, from Balikpapan}, 4F {Raisya/ "RZ", died 4/7 in Padang City, from Lubuk Begalung Subdistrict}, 48M {Yanto, died 4/16 in RS Handsome Sadikin Bandung , from Karanganyar Village}, 12M {Angga Saputra, died 4/30 in RSUD Moewardi, Solo, from the Grobogan Regency, Central Java}, ]
May '07 - 5 (29F, 26F, 5F, 45M, 16F) confirmed, [+1 UNCONFIRMED - 26M {Suyatno/ Syt, died 5/3 in RSUD Wonogiri, from Tiyaran, Sukoharjo Subdistrict of the Bulu Regency (Hair)}]
June '07 - 1 confirmed (26M), [+2 UNCONFIRMED - 11M {"YES", died 6/1 in RSUP Adam Malik Medan, from Asahan Regency}, 1F {Galli, died 6/26 in Daerah Public Hospital (RSUD) Indrasari, Rengat, from Ukui, Pelalawan}]
July '07 - 1 confirmed (6M), [+1 UNCONFIRMED - 45F {Watini/ Watinah, died 7/23 in RSU Dr Soetomo Surabaya, from Bukur Village, the Sumbergempol Subdistrict, Tulungagung}]
Aug '07 - 3 confirmed (29F, 17F, 28F), [+9 UNCONFIRMED -5 months {Dila/Zila Zazila, died 8/1 in RSUD Arifin Achmad Pekanbaru, from the Simpang Petai Village, Kecamatan Singingi, Riau Province}, 33M {Surya Seorang, died 8/5 in Gedung Bedah Pusat Terpadu (GBPT), employee of RSU Dr Soetomo, from Surabaya}, 5F {Dian, Luh Putu`s five-year old child, died on 8/3 in RSUD Negara, from Dangin Tukad Aya Village, Negara, Kabupaten Jembrana, Bali}, 42F {Ni Ketut Sari Asih, died 8/25 in RS Sanglah, Denpasar Bali, from Jalan Yudhistira}, 4 Residents of Pekon Karang Buah and Sawang Balak, Pulau [island] Tabuan, {Fauzi (25), Ja'far (50), H Asnah (60) and Marhakim (60) - may have had Typhus and/or Malaria?}]
Sept '07 - 2 confirmed (33M, 21M), [+1 UNCONFIRMED -- 30F {Ida Khadijah, died 9/22 in RSHS Hasan Sadikin, Bandung, from Indramayu, West Java}]
Oct '07 - 3 confirmed (12M, 44F, 5F), [+2 UNCONFIRMED - 10F {Gozi Sultia Ningsih, died 10/20 in RSUD Arifin Ahmad, Riau Province, from Berempan Hulu, Kabupaten Siak}, 17F { Riri Rianti, aunt of Gozi (10F), died 10/11, in Gawat Darurat, Riau Province, from Berempan Hulu, Kabupaten Siak}]
Nov '07 - 2 confirmed (30F, 31M), [+1 UNCONFIRMED - 20M {Deni S, died 11/8 in RS Sanglah, Bali, from Kedonganan, Badung, reportedly died of severe pneumonia}]
This information compiled by CurEvents.com/momcares
WOW! What a speech. I admire Dr. Chan for telling it like it is.....but I also noticed this was broadcast in Feb. 2007. The wheels still aren't getting greased fast enough as far as I'm concerned. For example.....are our hospitals, nursing homes, long-term care facilities stocking up on PPEs? The health care system should be prepping all available space for beds.......but instead.....they are closing hospitals and other facilities all across the country! What gives? :uhoh3:
Preparing for a pandemic influenza outbreak involves everybody. The threat of pandemic influenza is real, and America needs leadership from respected community members to prepare our towns and cities, reduce the impact of pandemic flu on individuals and families, and reduce or even prevent serious
damage to the economy. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other public health experts agree that it is not a question of IF a pandemic will occur, but WHEN it will occur. If America is not adequately prepared, pandemic flu could seriously affect everyone economically.
Government alone can't prepare the nation for pandemic flu; this challenge requires your help. As a leader in your community, you can play a powerful role in encouraging those whom you can influence, whether they be employees, patients, or group members, to prepare by providing information and guidance and by preparing yourself.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is working with medical professionals, and business, community, and faith-based leaders across the nation to provide them with the simple tools they can use to educate Americans on ways to protect themselves and their families.
It is only natural that some would be skeptical about a possible event
that has never happened in their lifetime. There is also a place for admitting
that you do not know everything just because you never saw it before.
This is so very true. Look at all the people who never wore seatbelts until it was mandated by law. Even though head injuries cause many deaths in car crashes, it seems only NASCAR and road race drivers wear helmets. Backyard pools without fences, chemicals stored under sinks where kids can get into them, heavy drinkers, smokers. So many times people take risks because they don't think an event will ever happen to them. Even if the government took this seriously I doubt they could convince the public we need to spend the money it would take to be fully prepared. Still some preparation is better than none.
I can not read this as any more than just hysteria. Just can't take this very seriously. Maybe I have been around this planet too long. Not a very realistic senario at all.
You must not have been on the planet that long, or else you would have met some people who could have told you about the 1918 flu pandemic, where up to 40 million people died. And there are more than three times the number of people now that there were then, which could mean over a hundred million deaths with the same rate of infection and death.
"taken care of" with no PPE or meds available? What are they referring to when they say that? Probably a ride to and from and meals on duty, but not much more. Yes, I think I would go in anyway, but I'd be pretty realistic about not expecting any thanks or recognition. I haven't heard of any of the nurses that stayed during Katrina getting anything special, and I often wonder if they were paid for that last week or so. Anyone know?
All New Orleans HCA employees were paid fully; and many were given free petty cash and plane tickets after they got out of the city.
I can not read this as any more than just hysteria. Just can't take this very seriously. Maybe I have been around this planet too long. Not a very realistic senario at all.
Specializes in Education, FP, LNC, Forensics, ED, OB.
I can not read this as any more than just hysteria. Just can't take this very seriously. Maybe I have been around this planet too long. Not a very realistic senario at all.
Not hysteria at all.
It's a possible and probable reality.
Please read the links that indigo girl has supplied.
I echo the advice. Read the links, the 1918 flu did take 4o million lives...this was a transmission that remained animal dna only. If that was to happen today it would be over 100 million people dead. If the flu mutates with human dna, we'd have some shot at a vaccine. Otherwise, see ya-it's not a matter of if, but a matter of when.
:uhoh3:
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indigo girl
5,173 Posts
I think that some of us will work, but I understand why many will not.
No one should ever feel guilty for taking care of family first.
I also believe that early education and dialogue will help in mounting a
better strategy so that those of us who can work will have a better chance
to help more people to survive, and to protect ourselves while doing so.
Many of us do not work in hospital settings. It is not going to matter.
They need to begin preparing all of us with training now.
This is the right thing to do.
https://allnurses.com/forums/2497254-post235.html