Surge of Flu Cases in Argentina and Chile

indigo girl · Jul 3, 2009

Argentine Government launched a "learn at home" program for school children due to Influenza A epidemic

http://www.telam.com.ar/vernota.php?tipo=N&idPub=152398&id=300442&dis=1&sec=1

This is smart. Of course here in the US, it would be more useful to do some of this by computer as well since many kids are online by now.

President Cristina Fernández announced on Thursday a "learn at home" program to be transmitted daily by two public TV channels, for school children forced to stay at home due to the suspension of classes because of the Influenza A epidemic.
The state-owned Channel 7, and the cable TV channel Encuentro, belonging to the Ministry of Education, will transmit during the morning and the afternoon programs with lessons and entertainment for grammar and high school students.
"This program is intended to reduce the impact of the loss of classes during a month", said the President, referring to the measures announced yesterday to reduce the impact of the epidemic, that has claimed 44 lives in Argentina.
"We are aware of the audience impact of private TV, so we urge private channels to devote some hours of their programs to help solve the education problems caused by the epidemic", added the President.

indigo girl · Jul 5, 2009

Argentina Denies Manipulating Flu-Virus Figures

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=338558&CategoryId=14093

Argentina's new health minister, Juan Manzur, denied Saturday that officials concealed information about the number of people infected with the AH1N1 flu virus in the lead-up to recent legislative elections.
"They were working with data on patients confirmed (ill in laboratory tests)," Manzur said in justifying the drastic change in the official infection figures before and after last Sunday's legislative elections, in which the ruling Peronist party lost its control over both houses of Congress.
On June 26, two days before the vote, the Health Ministry said 1,587 people were infected with swine flu; but on June 29, Graciela Ocaña resigned as head of that portfolio and was replaced by Manzur, who on Friday acknowledged that the number of people infected nationwide could be as high as 100,000.
But Manzur said the figures were not manipulated under his predecessor and denied that left-leaning President Cristina Fernandez had reprimanded him for providing an estimate on the number of swine-flu cases.
Only 2,800 infections have been confirmed in laboratory tests, Manzur said. He also said Saturday that the AH1N1 virus thus far has killed 55 people in Argentina, although non-governmental organizations say the death toll is closer to 90.
The president of the Argentine NGO Doctors Without Flags, Ariel Umpierrez, said there is "no doubt the government hid figures, both on the number infected and killed," adding that Ocaña should have resigned once she knew the real number of people infected rather than waiting for the results of the elections.
"Lack of information is part of the problem. The idea of keeping things under the rug is a serious error that could have had to do with the elections, no doubt," a lawmaker with the opposition Republican Proposal party, Esteban Bullrich.
The Pan American Health Organization said Thursday it is regrettable that the AH1N1 epidemic in Argentina coincided with this year's legislative elections.
Worldwide, only the United States (170) and Mexico (119) have more reported deaths from the pandemic than Argentina.

oramar · Jul 7, 2009

H1N1 outbreak to peak soon, number of deaths unclear
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/BreakingNews/View/5268
They think that the flu will peak in two weeks??
Personally, I think that this is well into the hopes and dreams category as Dr. Niman at Recombinomics.com would say.
So, they base this announcement on what? Someone seems to have forgotten that this is not seasonal flu, and the northern hemisphere is still having cases well into summer.
I like that they have given medical leave to workers that are high risk like asthmatics and pregnant women before they get sick. But, do they have paid sick leave?

Oh dear, I think we are seeing the future.

indigo girl · Jul 7, 2009

lack of transparency indicated in withholding of pandemic viral sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/news/07060901/h1n1_argentina_explosion.html

this information is vital and needs to be released. it is unconscionable that such data has been withheld.

according to data provided by the situation room, there are more than 2,000 cases reported, of which 400 were confirmed as positive.of the 15 deaths corresponding to node rosario, santa fe to two and the rest of the venado tuerto.
the ministry of health in the province of santa fe reported tonight, through the situation room that operates under the contingency plan prepared in connection with the pandemic influenza a (h1n1), the total number of reported cases with epidemiological fact sheets exceeds 2000, with 400 confirmed and 18 deaths, 15 of which belong to node rosario, one of the venado tuerto and two of santa fe
this record corresponds to the information available to date sunday july 5 to 20 hours.
the above translation describes 18 confirmed fatalities in santa fe province, including 15 deaths in rosario, as of sunday night (see updated map). a national report which reported no deaths in santa fe last week has an updated number of 9 for santa fe, and 60 for the entire country, most of which is from cases in adjacent buenos aires province. the 60 confirmed cases is a marked increase from the 26 reported last week however, the 60 reported cases do not include other recent fatalities cited in media reports which included 11 deaths in corrientes, 5 deaths in neuquen, and at least one death in tierra del fuego, jujuy, cordoba, san juan, salta, la pampa, rio negros, entre rios, and santiago del estero. the national totals do not include any fatalities in the above provinces, raising concerns of a rapid rise in cases that has not been reported beyond the local media reports.
these data indicate the death tally has tripled in the past week and is among the highest in the world (behind the united states and mexico). however, the cases in argentina developed very recently, raising concerns that the virus has changed.
to date, there is only one partial pandemic h1n1 mp sequence at genbank or gisaid. it was collected in april and is identical to a large number of public sequences. however, there are no sequences representing the recent fatalities or june precursors to h1n1 associated with the recent fatalities.
the rapid rise in cases and the failure to provide timely sequence data continues to increase pandemic concerns of an evolving h1n1 that is largely missed by current surveillance approaches.
recent reports out of hong kong described oseltamivir resistance in a traveler from san francisco who had not taken tamiflu, raising concerns of resistance in the us. although no such case has been identified to date, the hong kong case was mile and recent (detected june 11) and us efforts have been directed away from mild cases. moreover, none of the sequences from resistant cases in denmark, japan, and hong kong have been made public, even though sequences were generated weeks ago.
the failure to promptly disclose these sequences is also cause for concern. in japan, notification was reportedly delayed while a morificecript was being submitted to the journal of infectious diseases, although release of sequence data would not prevent publication.
the delays in release of important sequence data from pandemic h1n1 are hazardous to the world's health.

indigo girl · Jul 7, 2009

Public kept in dark as institute compiles thesis on mutated virus

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200907060104.html

Don't believe that scientists would engage in unethical behavior? This has been going on all along with regards to information on H5N1, bird flu. One would think that in the middle of a pandemic, this type of behavior would cease, but no, it has not. Actually, two weeks is nothing. There is a plethora of sequence information on the much more virulent bird flu virus that has NEVER been released, and that virus is still a threat.

I am so very tired of the fear of panic excuse. What anxiety? What arrogance that only experts would understand the implications of Tamiflu resistance. If the public did not get what only experts could understand, why would anyone feel anxiety?

-A prefectural research institute withheld from the public for two weeks its discovery of a mutated swine flu virus, but it swiftly submitted a thesis on the finding to a U.S. medical journal.
The Osaka Prefectural Institute of Public Health only made the announcement of the Tamiflu-resistant virus last Thursday, two weeks after confirming it on June 18. In fact, the health ministry had to instruct the institute to make the announcement.
It was the first confirmation of the mutated virus in the world. But even the Osaka prefectural government's health and medical treatment department failed to announce the detection immediately after it received a report from the institute on June 22.
The mutated virus is resistant to Tamiflu, an anti-flu drug widely used in Japan to treat patients infected with new swine flu.
"If researchers are working for public health, they should know as common sense that (withholding the discovery) is wrong," said Shigeru Omi, a professor of public health at Jichi Medical University and chairman of a government advisory council on new influenza.
A teacher in her 40s in Osaka Prefecture who had been in close contact with an infected person started receiving Tamiflu on May 18 as a preventive measure.
She had a slight fever on May 24 and was confirmed infected with the new swine flu virus on May 29.
The Osaka institute conducted a genetic examination of her virus samples and confirmed on June 18 that the virus had genetically mutated and was resistant to Tamiflu.
The World Health Organization, which demands immediate public disclosure of drug-resistant viruses, said June 29 that the world's first Tamiflu-resistant virus had been confirmed in Denmark.
Meanwhile, the Osaka institute, still keeping the public in the dark, compiled and submitted a thesis on the mutated virus to U.S. medical journal Emerging Infectious Diseases on June 24. As of Saturday, it was not known when the thesis will be published.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the National Institute of Infectious Diseases were only informed of the Tamiflu-resistant virus on Wednesday, prompting the ministry to call for an immediate announcement.
Kazuo Takahashi, vice director of the institute, denied the researchers were seeking fame from the discovery.
"We refrained from announcing the detection to the public, thinking that an announcement at an uncertain stage would only add to public anxiety," he said. "But we thought experts would be able to understand the discovery."
At the news conference Thursday, institute officials said the researchers did not announce the mutated virus for two weeks because they were conducting cell experiments to confirm the virus was resistant to Tamiflu.
Professor Omi said this explanation is not convincing.
On June 24, the thesis submitted to the Emerging Infectious Diseases had already reported confirmation that the genetically mutated virus showed resistance to Tamiflu.
"We can hardly respond to such critical questions about which side we are working for--experts or the public," said Tatsuya Oshita, a senior official at the prefectural health department. "As a (local) government, we should have announced the detection immediately."
The ministry reported the discovery of the mutated virus to the WHO on Friday.(IHT/Asahi: July 6,2009)

Public kept in dark as institute compiles thesis on mutated virus

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200907060104.html

Don't believe that scientists would engage in unethical behavior? This has been going on all along with regards to information on H5N1, bird flu. One would think that in the middle of a pandemic, this type of behavior would cease, but no, it has not. Actually, two weeks is nothing. There is a plethora of sequence information on the much more virulent bird flu virus that has NEVER been released, and that virus is still a threat.

I am so very tired of the fear of panic excuse. What anxiety? What arrogance that only experts would understand the implications of Tamiflu resistance. If the public did not get what only experts could understand, why would anyone feel anxiety?

-A prefectural research institute withheld from the public for two weeks its discovery of a mutated swine flu virus, but it swiftly submitted a thesis on the finding to a U.S. medical journal.
The Osaka Prefectural Institute of Public Health only made the announcement of the Tamiflu-resistant virus last Thursday, two weeks after confirming it on June 18. In fact, the health ministry had to instruct the institute to make the announcement.
It was the first confirmation of the mutated virus in the world. But even the Osaka prefectural government's health and medical treatment department failed to announce the detection immediately after it received a report from the institute on June 22.
The mutated virus is resistant to Tamiflu, an anti-flu drug widely used in Japan to treat patients infected with new swine flu.
"If researchers are working for public health, they should know as common sense that (withholding the discovery) is wrong," said Shigeru Omi, a professor of public health at Jichi Medical University and chairman of a government advisory council on new influenza.
A teacher in her 40s in Osaka Prefecture who had been in close contact with an infected person started receiving Tamiflu on May 18 as a preventive measure.
She had a slight fever on May 24 and was confirmed infected with the new swine flu virus on May 29.
The Osaka institute conducted a genetic examination of her virus samples and confirmed on June 18 that the virus had genetically mutated and was resistant to Tamiflu.
The World Health Organization, which demands immediate public disclosure of drug-resistant viruses, said June 29 that the world's first Tamiflu-resistant virus had been confirmed in Denmark.
Meanwhile, the Osaka institute, still keeping the public in the dark, compiled and submitted a thesis on the mutated virus to U.S. medical journal Emerging Infectious Diseases on June 24. As of Saturday, it was not known when the thesis will be published.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the National Institute of Infectious Diseases were only informed of the Tamiflu-resistant virus on Wednesday, prompting the ministry to call for an immediate announcement.
Kazuo Takahashi, vice director of the institute, denied the researchers were seeking fame from the discovery.
"We refrained from announcing the detection to the public, thinking that an announcement at an uncertain stage would only add to public anxiety," he said. "But we thought experts would be able to understand the discovery."
At the news conference Thursday, institute officials said the researchers did not announce the mutated virus for two weeks because they were conducting cell experiments to confirm the virus was resistant to Tamiflu.
Professor Omi said this explanation is not convincing.
On June 24, the thesis submitted to the Emerging Infectious Diseases had already reported confirmation that the genetically mutated virus showed resistance to Tamiflu.
"We can hardly respond to such critical questions about which side we are working for--experts or the public," said Tatsuya Oshita, a senior official at the prefectural health department. "As a (local) government, we should have announced the detection immediately."
The ministry reported the discovery of the mutated virus to the WHO on Friday.(IHT/Asahi: July 6,2009)

indigo girl · Jul 7, 2009

What We Can Learn from Argentina

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/07/argentina-is-now-the-epicenter-of-the-world.html

A Mexican epidemiologist, Alejandro Macías, is in Argentina. He says: "Argentina is now the epicenter of the world. The situation here is 'unedited,' and we in the northern hemisphere see ourselves in this mirror. The same scenario will be repeated next winter in the north, and we have come to learn."
In other reports, we learn that Argentina has suspended theatrical performances for ten days. The total confirmed cases are now 107,000. Several Buenos Aires city officials, and various politicians, are awaiting test results after showing symptoms of H1N1.
Dr. Macías, I suspect, is absolutely right. And we had better learn from Argentina very quickly.

WalkieTalkie, RN · Jul 7, 2009

Hah! So funny you would mention this. I just returned from Argentina last Thursday. When we got off the plane in Buenos Aires, we were required to wear N95s and be thermal scanned. People were really freaking out down there, especially during the election. They at least seem to be proactive about the situation.

indigo girl · Jul 8, 2009

Argentina: 3 million cases by August 1?

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/07/argentina-3-million-cases-by-august-1.html

Via the Buenos Aires Herald, a jaw-dropping interview: "Between 10-20% of the population must be infected with H1N1 flu." Excerpt:
Renowned infectious disease specialist Daniel Stamboulián said Argentina is going through the first half of the pandemic phase of the virus. "The next three weeks will be extremely important to know how it will diminish," he added.
He also said it is impossible and unnecessary for the laboratories to report all the cases. Stamboulián estimated cases in Argentina may total 3 million.
He also emphasized the Argentine situation is quite similar to the current scenario of the neighboring countries.
Regarding the prevention of the virus, Dr. Daniel Stamboulián said people showing H1N1-flu like symptoms must be isolated to avoid transmitting the virus to their relatives or work mates. "Health masks are falsely safe," he asserted.
What is the situation in Argentina regarding the Influenza A (H1N1)?
The Influenza A (H1N1) appeared in Argentina three weeks ago. Flu outbreaks and new viruses like this one usually last six weeks, so there are three weeks remaining. This is a very dynamic scenario, the virus grows, it remains stable, but we are certainly in the middle of the pandemic.
Can we consider official data real?
First of all we need to know that confirmed cases don't actually show the real prevalence of the virus. Even in the USA, where data are properly reported, there must be 5-10 actual cases for each reported case. That happens here too. The interesting fact is that seasonal flu usually affects 10% of the population. This means there are about 1.5 to 3 million infected people in the country. Pandemics usually affect 20 to 40% of the population. Health Minister Manzur actually said there are more than 100,000 infected people. Laboratories can't cope with all the work.
So, what are the actual figures?
I think 10- 20% of the Argentine population is infected. This means we will probably reach more than 3 million cases in the country.

indigo girl · Jul 9, 2009

Argentine Businesses Struck by Swine Flu

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/835fd8e8-6b01-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

This is a very interesting article on how life in Argentina has been affected by the pandemic virus. I hope Sebelius and Napolitano are aware of this.

An uncharacteristic quiet hangs over Buenos Aires’s usually bustling commercial districts as swine flu grips the Argentine capital.
Restaurants, shopping centres, hotels and theatres all report falling sales as deaths from H1N1 infection across the country reached 65.
Businesses geared towards children are reporting the most severe impact. Cinemas reported a fall in ticket receipts of more than 33 per cent in a week. Internet cafés, sports centres, discotheques and theatres have seen a similar fall-off rate.
In the district of San Isidro, children under 18 have been banned from entering shopping centres until July 9. Nightclubs and gymnasiums have also closed their doors temporarily.
Provincial governments are now following suit. Mendoza, San Juan and Corrientes have ordered casinos and cinemas to remain shut for a fortnight. Argentina’s theatre association has also decided to close box offices for 10 days.
Travel companies are also reporting widespread cancellations as an increasing number of countries issue health warnings against visiting Argentina.
Argentines themselves are holding off travelling as well. School graduates are being requested not to travel to the ski town of Bariloche, a popular end-of-term destination, for at least a fortnight.
Pharmacies are one of the few industries to see sales on the rise. Stocks of masks and alcohol gel are almost sold out across the country, leading some consumers to cross into neighbouring Chile and Uruguay to obtain them.
The antiviral Tamiflu medicine is the top seller. “Supplies are still available, but the problem is that we sell out in a flash,” said a pharmacist in Buenos Aires’s busy Palermo neighbourhood.
If the flu epidemic lasts for a month, the impact on the economy could amount to 0.5-0.6 per cent of GDP, equivalent to over 6.1bn pesos ($1.6bn, £990m), according to estimates by local analyst firm Orlando Ferreres.
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the president, has so far preferred to leave provincial and municipal governments to determine their own responses to the outbreak. To date, 11 of the country’s 23 provinces have declared a state of emergency, in addition to Buenos Aires.
The health ministry finally unveiled a 1bn-peso package of measures at the end of last week, most of which was meant for the distribution of Tamiflu.
Other measures include the introduction of paid leaves for pregnant women. Civil servants with young children have also been granted time off as schools close their doors on Wednesday, a week ahead of scheduled holidays.
Around 45,000 civil servants are off work in Buenos Aires, while private companies are reporting absentee levels of up to 15 per cent.

(hat tip PFI/pixie)

indigo girl · Jul 10, 2009

Swine Flu Sickens Argentine Economy

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8141996.stm

The authorities have asked people not to travel during the long weekend and recommended that they stay at home.
Restaurants are also deserted and depend more on home delivery People are not only staying away from theatres and cinemas but also shopping centres, restaurants, buses, trains and work. Local media have estimated that hundreds of millions of dollars have been lost, but according to economists, the true impact cannot be measured until the extent of swine flu across the country is established.
Roberto Dvoskin, of the University of San Andres, told BBC Mundo that the decision by the government not to order the closure of buildings - as they did in Mexico - is having a "drip-effect", which in the long term will have a worse impact on the economy.
"If everything were closed down with proper planning, for 10 or 12 days, the cost would be 1% of GDP," he says.
For Mr Dvoskin, market demand is currently influencing decisions, with an ultimately higher economic and social cost.
He says the problem is that to "take drastic measures for a limited period," carries with it potential political costs and "often governments prefer greater economic costs to lesser political ones".
The high number of people infected with the virus in Argentina - according to the Ministry of Health, it could rise to more than 100,000 - is not the only reason for the high level of absenteeism from the workplace. Many parents have had to stay at home to look after their children who will not be going back to school until the end of July. And there are those who have had to stay at home to look after sick family members or are vulnerable themselves, such as pregnant women, diabetics, people with respiratory or heart problems, or with compromised immune systems.
It is estimated that in Buenos Aires - the province most affected - around 20% of public workers are off work.
As in the case of Mexico, experts say that tourism has been badly hit because of swine flu.
Winter in the southern hemisphere is normally a boom period for the tourist trade, especially in the hugely popular ski centres like Bariloche, in the southern province of Rio Negro, or Las Lenas, in Mendoza, in the west.
...some sectors are doing well.
Production is up in factories that make face masks and disinfectant hand gel, while restaurants are depending increasingly for sales on home delivery as consumers avoid going out.

oramar · Jul 13, 2009

Thank you so much for posting this info. Like I said, I am a news junkie but none of this is showing up on the national or local news media. It really effects they way I am preparing.

indigo girl · Jul 16, 2009

Mandatory Cremation

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=266856&postcount=1

This is a translation, but are they really saying that there must be a mandatory cremation following deaths attributed to swine flu?

Well, OMG. I am speechless...