Projected Nursing Shortages - Year 2020

clee1 · Feb 2, 2006

According to page 18 of this link, there are five U.S. states that are projected to have surpluses of nurses by the year 2020. These states are Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa, Vermont, and Hawaii. What do you think about this projected oversupply?
The remaining 45 states are projected to have nursing shortages. Do you guys believe in the statistics? Thanks in advance.
Please scroll down to p. 18 of the link to see the aforementioned projections - ftp://ftp.hrsa.gov/bhpr/nationalcenter/rnproject.pdf

Personally, I'm skeptical of ALL statistics. They are most often skewed to reflect the bias of the person/group presenting them.

RN4NICU, LPN, LVN · Feb 2, 2006

I think they are underestimating the number of states with a surplus. Check out this thread

https://allnurses.com/forums/f8/nursing-shortages-not-my-area-140829.html

The OP in that thread is in Oregon, which according to the article has a shortage now and is projected to still have a shortage in 2020. I can think of several other areas which are a far cry from having a nursing shortage and I can't imagine a nursing shortage in those areas in the near future because there is a shortage of nursing JOBS there now. I have seen posters from Texas and a few other states post similarly to the above thread - that there is NO shortage in their areas and that good jobs for nurses are hard to find.

TheCommuter, BSN, RN · Feb 2, 2006

I've also heard from nurses that certain northern states, such as Minnesota and Wisconsin, have unique nursing surpluses. However, the statistics would lead an individual to believe that these areas are experiencing nursing shortages.

A skilled pollster can use a magically statistical slight-of-hand to skew the statistics in any direction he pleases...

Judee Smudee, ADN, RN · Feb 2, 2006

Personally, I'm skeptical of ALL statistics. They are most often skewed to reflect the bias of the person/group presenting them.

I was thinking the same thing. Projections like this can be way, way off. Things will most likely be worse or better than what the projections say.

a_clay · Feb 2, 2006

I agree as well, these are only PROJECTIONS...no one knows what's REALLY going to happen. I just happen to live in Texas also and while there may be areas where there are more nurses than nurse jobs, the fact that it is some 900 miles all the way across Texas, that is certainly not the case for the whole state. There are a few big urban areas and many, many rural areas.

I was thinking the same thing. Projections like this can be way, way off. Things will most likely be worse or better than what the projections say.

TheCommuter, BSN, RN · Feb 2, 2006

I agree as well, these are only PROJECTIONS...no one knows what's REALLY going to happen. I just happen to live in Texas also and while there may be areas where there are more nurses than nurse jobs, the fact that it is some 900 miles all the way across Texas, that is certainly not the case for the whole state. There are a few big urban areas and many, many rural areas.

I, too, happen to live in Texas.

Some of the state's big cities have a strong demand for nurses whereas other regions (such as the Panhandle) have virtually no nursing jobs available.

nursemelani · Feb 2, 2006

Maybe the states that are predicted to have a surplus of nurses have a younger population. In general, the baby boomers are entering retirement age, and thus gauranteeing that there will be plenty of work, especially for geriatric nurses, for the next 20+ years.

Katnip, RN · Feb 2, 2006

A lot of those states have either poor job prospects in other industries, so nursing is probably something people go into just to be able to work in depressed areas. Same thing happens during times of recession. Nursing jobs get more scarce when other industries downsize and all those nurses go back to bedside to get by.

Also, Like Commuter said, large cities tend to have shortages. Again because there are many other, more lucrative jobs available.