Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

Published

Due to circumstances beyond my control, computer glitch (?), the length

of the former thread (Thread 2), and the tremendous amount of new

information coming in at this time, it is probably necessary to start a new

thread on Avian Influenza Awareness.

I pulled out the following commentary from an earlier thread regarding

a rather chilling video (at least to me), given by Dr. Margaret Chan. The

information is not current as the video was shot in February 2007, but

what she has to say is still pertinent considering how much further the

spread of H5N1 has grown. It is now on three continents with a CFR (case

fatality rate) for human beings of over 60%. It is still however, primarily

a bird disease, but that may be changing.

From Margaret Chan MD, Director-General of the World Health Organization:

I did not attend the CIDRAP Conference in February, 2007 where this video

was shown. I almost got there, but changed my plans at the last minute.

Dr. Chan will appear in a screen to your right. You do not have to press

any buttons, just wait for the screen to appear, and for her presentation

to begin. You do not have to be a subscriber for the video to play.

Just be patient for a few seconds and view it.

I have to say that even though everything Dr. Chan is saying in this

presentation is well known to me, just hearing her speak so

clearly and honestly of what might occur, has shaken me. Though

many who research this information will say that her estimates

of the possible future cases may be too conservative, the numbers are

still hugh. This event will change the world, and challenge all of us.

The video will take 16 minutes of your time. I hope that the

very serious nature of Dr. Chan's message will cut thru the apathy and

disbelief about the possibility of H5N1 triggering the next pandemic,

and encourage some individual planning and family preparation.

Share it with people that you care about.

https://umconnect.umn.edu/chan

(hat tip crofsblog)

Specializes in Too many to list.

Egypt

Suzanne Ali Salah, 25 years old has died of bird flu, and her death has

been confirmed by the WHO. We are hearing that her sister may have

been admitted with H5N1 also, and that there is an 11 yr old boy that is

a suspected case.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/03/egypt-woman-die.html

Suzanne Ali Salah, 25, from Faiyum, southwest of Cairo, died in a Giza hospital in the suburbs of the capital where she was admitted on February 27.

She was the 44th case of the H5N1 bird flu virus reported in Egypt since the first outbreak was announced in February 2006.

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Specializes in Too many to list.

Iraq

As if there were not enough problems with Iraq, there are translated

reports of very extensive culling of poultry and other birds due to H5N1

being found there. A cull involving 30 kilometers in area is newsworthy.

That it is such an usually large area to be treating, should be a matter

of some concern:

...veterinary Mozan has burned thousands of poultry and birds in the area of injury and the surrounding area.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/reports-of-extensive-bird-culling-in.html

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Specializes in IM/Critical Care/Cardiology.

After 30 years in healthcare and direct patient care, I have influenza! I received the flu shot as well. I am on Tamiflu now, and have never been this sick in my life. I did give an articleI printed for my doc on H5N1 6 weeks old.

He is certain the bird flu is coming , just when? I gave him this thread to follow your great insight Al and IG.

Take care,

Sharona

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Specializes in Too many to list.
After 30 years in healthcare and direct patient care, I have influenza! I received the flu shot as well. I am on Tamiflu now, and have never been this sick in my life. I did give an articleI printed for my doc on H5N1 6 weeks old.

He is certain the bird flu is coming , just when? I gave him this thread to follow your great insight Al and IG.

Take care,

Sharona

This is why they are changing all 3 strains of next year's vaccine which is almost

unprecedented.

The flu season in the southern hemisphere was their first clue. That Brisbane

strain is here now, but is not in the current vaccine...

Hope you recover soon, and have someone to bring you chicken soup.

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WHO - Egyptian Update

The Ministry of Health and Population of Egypt has announced a new

human case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection. The case is

an 11-year-old male from Menof District, Menofia Governorate. He

was hospitalized with symptoms on 26 February and was confirmed

as being infected with A(H5N1) by the Central Public Health Laboratory

and NAMRU-3 on 4 March. He remains in a critical condition.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/who-egyptian-update-6.html

Vietnam

Bui Quang Anh, the Head of Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural

Development's Animal Health Department is predicting a massive bird flu

outbreak for May despite their extensive bird vaccination program. This

is alarming since Vietnam has had much experience in dealing with this

virus, and is considered to be a model for bird flu control.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/pessimistic-prediction-from-vietnam.html

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/pessimistic-prediction-from-vietnam.html

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suspected human bird flu case in bangladesh

if confirmed, this would be the first reported human infection due to the h5n1 virus in bangladesh.

bangladesh quarantines bird flu suspect

bird flu infection suspected

staff correspondent, rajshahi a poultry farmer was quarantined at rajshahi medical college hospital as doctors suspect that he might be infected with bird flu virus.

ashraf hossain, 32, of terokhadia pashchimpara in rajshahi was admitted to the hospital on wednesday as he showed multiple symptoms of the disease. his blood sample was sent to dhaka for test.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/bangladesh-quarantines-bird-flu-suspect.html

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Pandemic fatigue gives way to the "H5N1 New Normal"

For those of you that just don't get it, a few thoughts about H5N1 from Scott McPherson.

Scott is the CIO [Chief Information Officer] for the Florida House of Representatives.

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2008/3/5/pandemic-fatigue-gives-way-to-the-h5n1-new-normal.html

MAP:

World areas reporting confirmed occurence of H5N1 avian influenza in poultry and wild birds since 2003, status as of 03.03.2008 (latest available update)

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/satelliteimages/120488667399.htm

Big questions, small answers: Is there going to be a pandemic?

Watching the computer models run is sobering. The map gradually goes almost completely red, indicating the spread of infections, and then green, signalling that everyone is either dead or immune...

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=140117&postcount=1

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Because They're Young

This excellent essay from Avian Flu Diary discusses the biggest reason of

all to be concerned about the very real possibility of a bird flu virus such

as H5N1 going pandemic.

Keep in mind that this virus has a current Case Fatality Ratio [CFR] of over

60%. That is a fact that is hard to get around. The 1918 pandemic's CFR

was 2.5%, and took the lives of millions of younger people world wide.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/because-they-young.html

Of the cases recorded, roughly 95% of all avian flu victims have been under

the age of 50 and more than 70% have been under the age of 30.

For reasons not well understood, this virus has a predilection for the young.

Half of all cases are under the age of 20.

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Egypt Reports 47th Bird Flu Case

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/03/egypt-reports-47th-bird-flu-case.html

A quiet Saturday morning interrupted by news of an 8-year-old boy, Abdel Hamid al-Sayyed Yussuf from Fayoum, who has been diagnosed as having the H5N1 virus.

Yussuf joins at least 2 other children currently hospitalized in Egypt with the virus. An 11-year-old male from Menof District is reportedly in critical condition, and a 4-year-old girl from the El-Edwa district, who at last report was in stable condition.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03080801/H5N1_Fayoum_Cluster_New.html

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So Really, Just How Are They Getting Infected?

Supposedly, to come down with bird flu a person has to have come in contact

with the virus by being exposed either to infected birds or close, probably

sustained contact with an infected person. But is that always true? It

can't be the whole truth because it does not account for those many cases,

something like 25% in Indonesia where there seems to be some missing

link in the chain of transmission, a fact that you would never know by reading

some of the WHO's situation updates:

http://tinyurl.com/39qy4w

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Monotreme, a scientist blogging over at Pandemic Flu Information Forum [PFI]

offers his take on what the Chinese are doing to endanger world health:

China, Globalisation and Pandemic Influenza - Introduction

http://tinyurl.com/2m9deb

...if corporate profits were the only issue, this topic would not be appropriate for a discussion of pandemic flu. I will lay out the case that the immoral alliance between multinationals and the Chinese government is dangerous to the health of the entire world and explains why a hypervirulent virus is allowed to develop in China with scarcely a word of protest from governments or the media in other countries.

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The following are just some of the countries currently fighting H5N1 in poultry.

Bangladesh

As the disease continues to spread from district to district, the only known

suspected human case has tested negative.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/03/b2b-h5n1-keeps.html

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/03/bangladesh-poul.html

Bird flu has spread to another district in Bangladesh despite massive culling by authorities to control the outbreak, officials said on Sunday, bringing the number of affected districts to 47 out of 64.

Nearly 1.25 million birds have been culled since the virus was first detected in March 2007, threatening the impoverished country's growing poultry sector.

India

Meanwhile in West Bengal:

...60 teams began culling operations at Raghunathganj 11 and Muridabad-Jiyaganj blocks from where fresh chicken deaths were reported.

"Fifty thousand chickens will be killed in the three-day culling exercise", he said.

The ARD minister said the sale and consumption of poultry has been banned in the notified area of the district till further orders.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/03/culling-of-5000.html

Vietnam

Continuing to fight the disease despite an extensive vaccination program for poultry

now 10th province reported with bird flu.:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/03/vietnam-10th-pr.html

Laos

Laos fighting four outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/03/laos-fights-fou.html

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