Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 3

Egyptian girl dies of bird flu

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=196491&postcount=2

Just 16 years old, and Tamiflu did not save her.

Salem was subsequently admitted to hospital with a high fever, vomiting

and diarrhea, and then transferred to intensive care. She was treated

with the antiviral drug tamiflu, but suffered a pulmonary infection and

respiratory failure, and died on Monday.

Her death is the first bird flu fatality in Egypt since April, and the first of

the current winter season. The virus, which first appeared in Egypt in

February 2006, tends to be less active in summer.

About 5 million households in Egypt depend on poultry as a main source

of food and income, and the government has said this makes it unlikely

the disease can be eradicated despite a large-scale poultry vaccination

programme.

First Assam now West Bengal, India Battles Bird Flu Outbreaks

Reports indicate that they have been culling infected birds for about

a week now. Very scarey, to think that India is now probably an

endemic area for this virus.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/west-bengal-poultry-tests-positive-for.html

Reuters is reporting that the test results on some of the birds that died

in Malda, West Bengal over the past week have come back positive for

the H5N1 virus. Media reports indicate as many as 5,000 birds may

have died in the city over the past 7 days.

Situation Update on Assam

Lots of birds being culled, human population under surveillance,

cullers protected with Tamiflu prophylaxis, and some cases

of upper respiratory infections noted that at this time of year

could be regular seasonal flu. This is a hugh undertaking for

India to have to undergo. The WHO is also involved and

saying no suspect human cases. Meanwhile, West Bengal

is also under viral attack. It would not be surprising to hear

about bad news coming from Bangladesh or even Pakistan

some time in the not too distant future.

http://hygimia69.blogspot.com/2008/12/india-status-report-on-avian-influenza_16.html

http://www.searo.who.int/en/Section10/Section1027/Section2095/Section2462_13929.asp

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India, has strengthened

isolation facilities to admit and treat suspect cases. 15,000 capsules

of Tamiflu, 9,000 surgical masks, 900 personal protective equipments,

300 N-95 masks and five ventilators have been supplied by MoHFW.

Another 5,000 capsules of Tamiflu has reached the affected area

on 14.12.2008.

Jiangsu Province, Eastern China.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/china-reports-h5n1-outbreak-in-poultry.html

In order to prevent an outbreak, authorities in Hai'an and Dongtai killed

377,000 chickens and other domestic fowl in surrounding areas, the

ministry said. They have also disinfected and quarantined affected zones

and banned the transport of fowl and related products from Hai'an

and Dongtai, it said.

More on the Jiangsu Outbreak

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/more-on-jiangsu-outbreak.html

The Agriculture Ministry is claiming they were only notified yesterday of

the outbreak (they must not subscribe to ProMed Mail).

Meanwhile, there are a number of news stories appearing in the

Chinese press suggesting that a major cover up of the outbreak may

have occurred (more on that later today).

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/dissident-press-coverage-of-jiangsu.html

It is not difficult to believe that the Chinese would really knowingly

send contaminated poultry products to other areas, considering

the recent melamine contaminated milk and pet food scandels.

Even more damning is the story of what happened in Thailand

in November 2003 when chickens began dying in farms all over

Thailand, and the corporate processing plants of Charoen

Pokphand, (CP) revved up production to process the carcasses and

ship them overseas. CP is owned by Dhanin Chearavanont.

He changed his name from Chia, and is originally from Guandong,

China. Guess who is now doing business all across China? That's

right, it is the same corporation. Here is the story on Thailand.

Then read what the dissidents in China are saying.

http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/mm2006/032006/davis.html

Strangely, in the midst of all these bird deaths, the corporate

chicken-processing plants were working overtime. As angry trade

unionists at one factory just outside the capital told the Bangkok Post

after the scandal broke: "Before November we were processing about

90,000 chickens a day. But from November to 23 January, we had to

kill about 130,000 daily. It's our job to cut the birds up. It was

obvious they were ill: their organs were swollen. We didn't know what

the disease was, but we understood that the management was rushing

to process the chickens before getting any veterinary inspection. We

stopped eating [chicken] in October."

Dissident Press Coverage Of Jiangsu Outbreak

This first article comes from Boxun News, and is submitted by

someone named jsgorden, who indicates he is not a journalist.

It describes a large bird flu outbreak in Jiangsu/Dongtai (already

confirmed), and goes on to suggest that infected chickens may

have been shipped to other regions, including Shanghai, Shandong,

and Henan.

It also appears to state that frozen chickens were shipped to Taiwan.

In fact it seems to allege that a lot of chickens were sold, traded, or

somehow distributed out of the afflicted area over the past few weeks.

The author also indicates that local officials either ignored, or tried to

cover up, the outbreak.

India and Bangladesh

Borders being sealed, smugglers trying to escape with infected

poultry, resistance of the local villagers who depend on poultry

as their livelihood, hundreds of wild crows dying from eating

diseased carcasses, this is the containment problem faced by India.

If this if how bad it is in India, we may next be hearing about

Bangladesh, unfortunately as much of this is occurring right

near their border, a disaster waiting to happen.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/bird-flu-continues-to-spread-in-india.html

Hundreds of crows have died since yesterday in Budhia village at

Norhatta in English Bazaar block, the spot where more than 3,500

chickens died of Bird Flu, causing panic among the people.

The villagers suspect that the dead crows might have eaten the

carcass of the Bird Flu affected chickens. The CMOH, Malda, Mr

Srikanta Roy, said that this could be a possibility.

Despite the situation, there is no awareness campaign at Norhatta

against consumption of chicken. Children could be seen playing around

with the dead crows that had simply fallen off the trees in the area.

It may be noted that the local gram panchayat yesterday decided to

inform people that they should not eat chicken.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/bird-flu-containment-efforts-in-india.html

KENDRAPARA: The district administration has sealed the sea routes

in the district to check entry of poultry through sea from West Bengal.

District Collector Sishirkanta Panda said officials of Mahakalpada and

Rajnagar have been directed to keep a tab on the sea routes after the

State Government banned supply of poultry from West Bengal following

detection of bird flu cases.

India sealed part of its border with Bangladesh on Thursday amid fears

the latest outbreak of the H5N1 bird flu virus had spread to new areas,

officials said.

Authorities in West Bengal state have killed about 10,000 birds in the

Malda district which borders Bangladesh since Tuesday, despite

resistance from villagers who want more compensation, after tests

proved a new outbreak in the area.

"We have already sealed the border with Bangladesh along Malda

district to check the spread of bird flu through chickens and ducks

smuggled in from the other side," West Bengal's animal resource

development minister Anisur Rahman told Reuters.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12180803/H5N1_Assam_Crows.html

Although H5N1 in crows has been reported in many outbreaks, including

Bangladesh and Egypt, confirmations by India in the past have been

lacking.

The careless discarding of dead poultry leads to infections in wild birds

and animals that eat the H5N1 positive poultry, which leads to local

spread. Therefore, restrictions on the movement of poultry and

sealing of borders are compromised by the spread of H5N1 by wild

birds, which do not respect border closings.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/murder-of-crows.html

More poultry deaths were reported on Thursday in Assam where avian

influenza spread to another district, taking the count of affected

districts in the State to seven, even as some crows tested positive

for the H5N1 strain.

Blood samples of the crows found dead in Chatribari area in Guwahati

were confirmed as H5N1 positive by laboratories in Bhopal and Pune,

sources said.

Confusion And Silence Surround Jiangsu Outbreak

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/confusion-and-silence-surround-jiangsu.html

It is nothing new for the Chinese people to be kept in the dark about an

infectious disease. Chinese officials protect each other not the people.

This has been proven over and over again. Even doctors were not

informed about the infectiousness of the SARS patients being transferred

to the designated treatment hospitals by government officials. That is

exactly why so many doctors and nurses were infected, and died in

several Chinese cities during the epidemic. Not only did they did not inform

their own people, they outright lied to the WHO, and the rest of the world

allowing the virus to escape and kill many others including HCW in several

other countries.

Unbelievable, but true, they moved many sick doctors and nurses kept

in one hospital to ambulances, and drove them around the city before

the WHO visited after hearing of SARS cases in that particular hospital.

When the WHO officials arrived, the reported cases were not there.

Highly recommended reading, The China Syndrome by Karl Taro

Greenfield documents the whole frightening story of the coverup, and

how the virus spread out of China. It is one reason that we do not believe

the Chinese are telling the whole story this time either.

The ministry said it received information about H5N1 infection among

hens in Dongtai and Hai'an on Monday. It was discovered during

routine checks; no birds were reported sick.

Other stories, however, paint an entirely different story. ProMed Mail

printed reports of `serious losses' going back to early November

among chicken farmers in Jiangsu Province on December 4th, a full

10 days before the Chinese announcement.

"We lost about 40,000 or 50,000," a poultry farmer near Dongtai city

said. "Now, even the chicks are getting infected. We are having to

deal with this ourselves. We are burying them in pits."

...we have had no help from officials. If, as you say, this disease could

be a danger to human life, then we didn't know about it. The

government should send people down here to take care of it," she added.

Bangladesh and India

H5N1 outbreaks are occurring in western Assam and Malda, West Bengal, India as well as in Bangladesh. India is now trying to do some damage controll by saying some of the poultry deaths are due to Newcastle Disease. It is a stretch of the imagination for this to actually be true given the number of cases nearby. It is not unusual for countries to use Newcastle as a coverup for cases that are really H5N1. Testing in India can now be considered rather suspicious. PCR would be preferable to the antibody testing that they say they are doing or the unbelievable diagnosis of cases as Newcastle Disease based on visual examination of carcasses.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12220806/H5N1_Kurigram_2.html

Bangladesh was able to confirm the H5N1 on the same day as the collection, in marked contrast to India, which collects samples or carcasses and sends them to Bhopal for a series of tests. The delay in testing in India has cast serious doubts about negative test results and announcements of control and lack of reports of excessive poultry deaths.

Some media reports are even claiming that the confirmed cases in Assam are not really H5N1, even though the confirming letters are posted on the government website.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12240801/H5N1_Bangladesh_Culls.html

The three most recent outbreaks are near the confirmed outbreaks in Malda in West Bengal, as well as western Assam outbreaks. However, as the reporting in Bengladesh accelerates, India is claiming that the poultry deaths in adjacent areas are due to Newcastle Disease instead of H5N1. Over 30,000 birds were culled in Malda (Englishbazar and Old Malda blocks) and hundreds of crows died, but excessive poultry deaths 5-10 miles away in other Malda blocks (Ratua I, Gajole, Manikchak) were said to be due to Newcastle Disease. Sera were collected for routine testing, but sera are rarely positive for high path H5N1 because birds die before antibody levels rise to the detectable level. Similar results were reported in adjacent districts in West Bengal, raising serious questions about testing and reporting H5N1 in India.

Tripura, India

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12250803/H5N1_Sabroom.html

In what appears to be a relentless march across the region, H5N1 is spreading despite the denial of some local govt. If you check the map in this link, you can see also that Myanmar (Burma) is very close by. It is likely that there are unreported cases there even if the military regime in power does not choose to report them.

In Bangladesh, and the Indian regions of West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura mass bird deaths are occurring. Some of the poorest people in the world live in this area, and are very dependent upon poultry as their protein source. This is a tragedy.

It is also dangerous, and likely to spread outside the area. Hundreds of crows feasting on poultry carcasses have also died in some of these places. The disease is on the move, and the more contact H5N1 has with humans, the greater the chance of the virus adapting to mammalian hosts, a real concern as it spreads through the more densely populated locations.

Although officials dismiss the deaths because they are south of outbreaks last spring, H5N1 is being confirmed throughout the region, and spread to multiple regions of Tripura is likely. Today Assam confirmed H5N1 in six new areas, and Bangladesh has confirmed H5N1 in the north. However, earlier this month Bangladesh confirmed H5N1 in multiple locations in and around Dhaka, which is only 100 miles from southern Tripura.

Vietnam

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=198897&postcount=16

Vietnam is noted for its vigorous efforts to control bird flu, and H5N1 is noted for its ability to keep returning to the same areas so the people of Vietnam keep on beating it back. May they continue to be successful in their efforts.

Fifth Anniversary of H5N1

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12290801/H5N1_Anniversary_5.html

This is where we are now according to virologist, Dr. Henry Niman. The disease is now expanding its range. It has made some adaptations to mammalian hosts, but lost none of its virulence in its expansion.

... the difference between the H5N1 currently in circulation, and the H5N1 reported 12 years ago in Hong Kong is like night and day. Five years ago H5N1 began its global expansion, which accelerated dramatically in the 12 months following the reports if H5N1 at Qinghai Lake in 2005. The clade 2.2 expansion has produced confirmed human cases in Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Djibouti, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Clade 2.3 has now also been confirmed in long range migratory birds and has caused human cases in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and probably Cambodia as well as the denied case in South Korea.

Recent activity has been on the rise as the birds migrate south and the weather cools. The expansion in the past five years has been dramatic, in terms of countries, infected birds culled, or confirmed human cases and clusters, which are far larger than Hong Kong in 1997.

H5N1 is on the move, in geographic and genetic terms, even if it seems to be on a decline to some.

Today is bird flu's birthday

The Reveres are saying that H5N1 appears less transmissible, but certainly not everyone would agree with that assessment. As for fewer poultry outbreaks, again, this may not be true. Lots of censorship going on that may be hiding outbreaks in countries such as China, Indonesia, and North Korea to name a few.

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2008/12/today_is_bird_flus_birthday.php

As far as the world is concerned, if any day can be said to be bird flu's birthday, it's today. The disease of birds doctors call influenza A subtype H5N1 may have had a long gestation period, but we're not sure how long. A form of the virus deadly to poultry was isolated from a goose in southern China (Guangdong province) in 1996, marking the first time the highly pathogenic form of the H5 bird virus poked its head above water for us to see. How long it had "been around" before that we don't know. Then in May, 1997, a three year old tot in Hong Kong came down with a flu-like illness that got worse and worse. He died a hard and painful death 12 days after onset. Tests showed it was an influenza A virus, but not the kind that usually infected humans (H1, H2 or H3). It was an unidentified subtype for human infection. Specimens were sent to the Netherlands and the US and in August the Dutch team identified it as the H5N1 subtype. It was designated A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) and shown to be closely related to isolate A/Chicken/Hong Kong/258/97 (H5N1) (see here for more on the naming system for flu viruses). The latter virus had been isolated from a chicken in Hong Kong in March, just months before the child fell ill. A poultry flu virus had jumped to humans.

Because the number of outbreaks in poultry dropped in 2008 and the number of human cases dropped with them, some are saying the fight against bird flu is being won. But between 1997 and mid 2003 there was little evidence of H5N1. Then it burst out of Asia into Europe and Africa, infecting birds and humans on three continents. So far it is primarily a disease of birds, with only sporadic human cases. In fact the post 2003 virus seems less transmissible than the 1997 version.

Both facts should tell us something: we don't really know what this virus is going to do.