Pandemic News/Awareness.

indigo girl · Mar 9, 2007

How terribly sad, this is. She was her mother's only child.

I know that there are many children dying across the globe from a multitude of reasons. I will mourn this one because I know something about her.

Her name was Namfon.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/03/her_name_was_na.html

indigo girl · Mar 10, 2007

Roche has applied to FDA to create child-sized doses of Tamiflu for

treatment of seasonal influenzas and for pandemic stockpiling:

Makes sense to me.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=70034&postcount=1

indigo girl · Mar 10, 2007

Laos, avian flu continuing to spread south:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/03/laos_fears_bird.html

Vietnam is taking very stringent measures. They have had lots of confrontations with this disease. It seems that it will be a continual struggle as it keeps reoccurring in these countries. That makes sense actually. The wild birds will always be migrating in and out, carrying it with them.

But, notice the difference between how the Vietnamese handle isolating the disease, and how the British did this recently. Who is taking this more seriously? The country that has had the highest human death toll, or the country that has had no human cases yet? There is something to be said for learning from the experience of others.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/03/vietnam_isolate.html

"No poultry and poultry products are allowed to be transported in or out of the area," local veterinarian Do Van Thanh told AFP. "Local residents must wear masks if they come out of their houses."

Contrast this with the Brits allowing Bernard Matthews to transport turkey products from Hungary right thru the quarantine zone so as not to upset their trading parnters. Go figure. Who is more serious about protecting the public health?

At any rate, the wild birds continue to migrate around the world. That's just how it is. We have to be realistic about dealing with this disease because it is not going away.

North Americans should be aware that H5N1 is already here in a low pathogenic form, and very possibly in the highly pathogenic form also.

Remember, in the rest of the world, the highly pathogenic form has always been found prior to the low pathogenic form. I have to ask, why is this continent the exception to that reporting experience?

VickyRN, MSN, DNP, RN · Mar 10, 2007

Very informative thread, indigo girl. Thank you for taking the time to educate us all about this very real threat to civilization as we know it.

indigo girl · Mar 10, 2007

Very informative thread, indigo girl. Thank you for taking the time to educate us all about this very real threat to civilization as we know it.

My pleasure, VickyRN. I have an interest, and saw the need.

indigo girl · Mar 11, 2007

Another little 4 year old kid was diagnosed with avian flu in Egypt today.

I am hopeful that this boy will be OK since the last two little ones survived and went home.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/egypt-24th-bird-flu-victim-reported.html

indigo girl · Mar 12, 2007

The Significance of Clusters of H5N1 Cases

What is meant by a cluster in cases of a disease, and why is it important?

Here are some posts from curevents.com that attempt to explain the current concern. I am open to their interpretation of what all of this means. I am not sure that they are correct, but they certainly might be.

A2H means animal to human transmission. H2H means human to human.

The Ro number -the basic reproductive number, Ro, which is the average number of secondary cases generated when an index case enters a totally susceptible population. When Ro is greater than one, the disease will spread out in the population, and there will be an epidemic. When Ro is less than one, the disease will die out.

The World Health Organization ranks our level of pandemic threat at

stage 3.

Clusters from 2007 such as the Egyptian or the Nigerian cases were not included.

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=694728&postcount=1

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=694829&postcount=5

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=695797&postcount=20

indigo girl · Mar 12, 2007

When politics gets in the way of public health, does it do any good to protest?

Governments have been known to sacrifice public safety in the interests of economic or other gains. It is an old, tired story that keeps on happening.

It is important to notice what governments say, and what they actually do

to protect people.

China went to considerable trouble to get their candidate,

Margaret Chan elected as Director General of the WHO. Taiwan is asking for a place at the table to protect their populace. It is not likely that they will get it.

(hat tip/fluwiki)

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2007/03/11/2003351854

Laidback Al · Mar 12, 2007

the significance of clusters of h5n1 cases
.....
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=694728&postcount=1
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=694829&postcount=5
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=695797&postcount=20

tracking clusters of human h5n1 cases is important because it can tell is if human h5n1 infection is spreading. the specific links provided by indigo girl are somewhat confusing regarding clusters. in the first link nonlocality discusses his/her previous model of stages of a pandemic based on the number of human clusters. nonlocality states "in my opinion what is happening right now in indonesia is an explosion of what i call stage 3 events - small, short duration h5n1 illness clusters."

in the second link nonlocality states "since late 2006 the number of simultaneous clusters has grown significantly, particularly in indonesia but also simultaneous with clusters in other countries (laos, egypt, etc.). . . i believe the average number of h2h transmissions within a cluster continues to increase."

but this is mostly speculation and in a later post, notbornyesterday asks "let's have the case count which you find indicative, nonlocality."

in the third link above, monotreme provide a link to his summary of clusters, but doesn't address whether or not nonlocality assertions are correct.

so i will provide a concise summary and discussion of h5n1 human clusters.

the first human cluster of h5n1 actually occurred in 1997. since 1997 there have been a total 47 human h5n1 clusters using monotreme's cluster definition. a graph of the number of clusters by year through 2006 can be found at:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=60819&postcount=4

so far in 2007, there have only been 2 human clusters that meet montreme's definition. in spite of nonlocality's belief, there has not been an explosion of small, short duration h5n1 illness clusters recently. what there has been is an explosion of reporting of suspected cases and suspected clusters, not just in indonesia, but also in egypt. these suspected cases are just that, suspected, until confirmed. there is no data yet to suggest that the number of human h5n1 clusters is increasing this year over last year.

more importantly, however, is the fact that the cluster size, the average number of infected individuals in each cluster, is not growing over time. the overall range of the number of individual per cluster per year remains between 2.33 and 3.14 individuals. so far, the cluster size of h5n1 infected individuals is not increasing and indicates that h5n1 is not yet easily transmissible between humans.

moh_sir · Mar 12, 2007

:idea:

The following essay addresses an issue that many are not aware of, but need to know. Whenever you read about a positive avian flu test result, you almost always hear that the victim had contact with poultry. What you are unlikely to be told however, is that the viral sequences of the humans does not match the viral sequences of the poultry. What does this mean? It could mean that there is good chance that there is a hidden mammalian reservoir for H5N1.
In Indonesia, the virus in the people most closely resembled the virus in a cat. This has important ramifications for preventing disease, particularly in countries where felines are pets (not the case in Indonesia), and are allowed access to the outdoors with the possibility of catching wildbirds.
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/02/fao-advisory-on-cats-and-bird-flu.html
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/02/fao_keep_cats_a.html

moh_sir · Mar 12, 2007

The situation in England regarding the finding of H5N1 avian flu in the Bernard Matthews turkey sheds is very confusing. The story keeps changing, and not for the better. I am going to post a few links to show you just how crazy this is getting. I am having a difficult time understanding all of this, so if you find it so, don't be surprised...

First, I'll let the Reveres at Effect Measure have their say:

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...on_th.php#more

Then, let's look at what the UK gov't is saying:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...80&postcount=1

Unfortunately, this study does not seem to agree with their assessment about transmissibility thru the GI tract, and it should be pointed out that some victims (since deceased) have had the consumption of contaminated food as their only risk factor.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...81&postcount=2

Last, but not least, there is this story of a worker, who participated in the cull. He was bitten by a turkey, and his wound was cleaned with ALCOHOL?

He was not given Tamiflu until after his mother's doctor in Portugal insisted that he go to the hospital. By this time, he has flu s/s according to this post:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...87&postcount=1

indigo girl · Mar 12, 2007

in the third link above, monotreme provide a link to his summary of clusters, but doesn't address whether or not nonlocality assertions are correct.
so i will provide a concise summary and discussion of h5n1 human clusters.
the first human cluster of h5n1 actually occurred in 1997. since 1997 there have been a total 47 human h5n1 clusters using monotreme's cluster definition. a graph of the number of clusters by year through 2006 can be found at:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=60819&postcount=4
so far in 2007, there have only been 2 human clusters that meet montreme's definition. in spite of nonlocality's belief, there has not been an explosion of small, short duration h5n1 illness clusters recently. what there has been is an explosion of reporting of suspected cases and suspected clusters, not just in indonesia, but also in egypt. these suspected cases are just that, suspected, until confirmed. there is no data yet to suggest that the number of human h5n1 clusters is increasing this year over last year.
more importantly, however, is the fact that the cluster size, the average number of infected individuals in each cluster, is not growing over time. the overall range of the number of individual per cluster per year remains between 2.33 and 3.14 individuals. so far, the cluster size of h5n1 infected individuals is not increasing and indicates that h5n1 is not yet easily transmissible between humans.

thank you for clarifying. i found the subject of clusters interesting, and i was open to nonlocality's interpretation, but do not necessarily agree with it. my first question however, would be this. we know that suspect cases are being given tamiflu. what are the chances that at least some of these cases are really positive? are they really testing everyone before treating with tamiflu? my guess is that we will never know. the information coming out of indonesia at present is scant since their disagreement about sharing isolates.

i believe monotreme also interpreted the info as possibly meaning people were being infected from a common source.