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I had to close the other panflu thread as it was way too long, and becoming unreadable. I am starting this one with info on the agenda of this meeting tomorrow in Congress. I am linking to Flutrackers because all of the info is right there and easily readable from this post: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=61735&postcount=1

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Taiwan and Thailand working on their own vaccines:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/01/taiwan-and-thailand-working-on-their.html

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White Washing with the Flu - Effect Measure:

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/01/whitewashing_with_the_flu.php#more

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:idea:

Quote:

The following essay addresses an issue that many are not aware of, but need to know. Whenever you read about a positive avian flu test result, you almost always hear that the victim had contact with poultry. What you are unlikely to be told however, is that the viral sequences of the humans does not match the viral sequences of the poultry. What does this mean? It could mean that there is good chance that there is a hidden mammalian reservoir for H5N1.

In Indonesia, the virus in the people most closely resembled the virus in a cat. This has important ramifications for preventing disease, particularly in countries where felines are pets (not the case in Indonesia), and are allowed access to the outdoors with the possibility of catching wildbirds.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...-bird-flu.html

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...ep_cats_a.html

Hello moh sir,

You highlighted this post to ask for clarification? It is a good pick. I am glad that you pointed this out because I recently asked Dr. Niman of Recombinomics about this, and whether or not the situation had changed.

Here is the question. Are people in Indonesia now being infected by their poultry? Some of us did not think so previously because the sequences from the people and the poultry did not match. As noted above, the human sequences most closely matched a cat in the area. But, things have changed. I hope that this clarifies this for you, if not ask again.

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=694956&postcount=11

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The situation in England regarding the finding of H5N1 avian flu in the Bernard Matthews turkey sheds is very confusing. The story keeps changing, and not for the better. I am going to post a few links to show you just how crazy this is getting. I am having a difficult time understanding all of this, so if you find it so, don't be surprised...

First, I'll let the Reveres at Effect Measure have their say:

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...on_th.php#more

Then, let's look at what the UK gov't is saying:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...80&postcount=1

Unfortunately, this study does not seem to agree with their assessment about transmissibility thru the GI tract, and it should be pointed out that some victims (since deceased) have had the consumption of contaminated food as their only risk factor.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...81&postcount=2

Last, but not least, there is this story of a worker, who participated in the cull. He was bitten by a turkey, and his wound was cleaned with ALCOHOL?

He was not given Tamiflu until after his mother's doctor in Portugal insisted that he go to the hospital. By this time, he has flu s/s according to this post:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...87&postcount=1

user_offline.gif report.gif

The only section here that I would comment on is the last one about the culler. We never heard any more about this culler from Portugal so it is likely, he was probably never infected.

What was your question?

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Thank you for clarifying. I found the subject of clusters interesting, and I was open to nonlocality's interpretation, but do not necessarily agree with it. My first question however, would be this. We know that suspect cases are being given Tamiflu. What are the chances that at least some of these cases are really positive? Are they really testing everyone before treating with Tamiflu? My guess is that we will never know. The information coming out of Indonesia at present is scant since their disagreement about sharing isolates.

I believe Monotreme also interpreted the info as possibly meaning people were being infected from a common source.

Monotreme's definition (which I use as well) simply identifies groups of individuals who are all infected within a short time span in localized geographic area. The source of the infection of these individuals is still an open question for me and probably for Monotreme. It is often assumed that most of these human infections result from a common exposure to poultry, but there appears to be at least several clusters where human-to-human (H2H) transmission has occurred. Alternatively, as Niman, Monotreme, and others have suggested, the source of human infection could be also be a common mammalian reservoir such as cats.

Your question about the treatment protocols for Tamiflu is a good one. We do not have the information to know how and when individuals are selected for treatment with Tamiflu. It seems clear that Tamiflu can affect the quick-test results, i.e. there can be false negatives. Without follow-up antibody testing, we will not know if any of the individuals with influenza-like symptoms that were administered Tamiflu were actually infected with the H5N1 virus and recovered.

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We do not have the information to know how and when individuals are selected for treatment with Tamiflu. It seems clear that Tamiflu can affect the quick-test results, i.e. there can be false negatives. Without follow-up antibody testing, we will not know if any of the individuals with influenza-like symptoms that were administered Tamiflu were actually infected with the H5N1 virus and recovered.

What is troublesome is that so many people were treated with Tamiflu in Indonesia. We don't have the information so we really do not know. I was remembering this article. Unfortunately the Fluwiki link does not seem to work so I am using the curevents.com link.

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=695835&postcount=79

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Another positive case in Indonesia in a 20 yr old woman:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/indonesia-confirms-new-case.html

And what about those many other cases that we never hear any follow up on?

The Avian Flu Story Graveyard:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/avian-flu-story-graveyard.html

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Egypt: No Easy Fixes

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/egypt-no-easy-fixes.html

Laos: Intensifies Bird Flu Interdiction

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/laos-intensifies-bird-flu-interdiction.html

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You have to read this. Lots to think about , and much commentary from different sources. The area of concern, relates to comments from the Egyptians that indicate, they are worried that H5N1 is becoming more virulent. Keep in mind, this virus may present in different ways. It may not look like a respiratory virus at all in some cases. We are all still learning about what it is capable of.

You can listen to the BBC broadcast if the link is still working.

Many thanks to Theresa42 for her tireless efforts in translation, and for all of the info that she provides. And, FlaMedic, thanks for letting me use your essays. I could never write nearly as well as you do.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/egypt-officials-fear-virus-has-mutated.html

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A 10 year old Egyptian girl has tested positive for H5N1. So far this season, we have had 4 and 5 year old kids that survived, and another 4 year old still in the hospital. I am concerned that this is a school age child. The younger kids did well. I hope that it will not matter what her age is, and that she will recover and go home to her family.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=70711&postcount=2

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The Fight Over Vaccines Gets Ugly - Commentary Avian Flu Diary

Well, it was bound to, wasn't it? When you have such a critically important commodity, in miniscule supply, and a great need, it will get uglier still.

Personally, I am not going to count on it because I do not expect that it will be available in time. How could it be?

It looks like most of us will be relying on what worked in the past or researching alternative remedies when there is nothing else available.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/fight-over-vaccines-gets-ugly.html

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Should you be scared about bird flu contamination of food?

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/03/should_you_be_scared_about_bir.php#more

Good topic. I have been thinking about this lately also. We just are not sure whether or not people have been infected by eating contaminated food. It certainly looks suspicious though, in some of these cases.

I do remember reading somewhere about a woman that picked up a piece of fruit from the ground, and ate it. That may have been her only risk factor, but I can not find that link anywhere. We know that two boys died after drinking some kind of raw soup with duck blood. People are being told that as long as their poultry is throughly cooked, it is safe to eat. Of course, you have to decontaminate any surfaces and utensils as well as your hands after preparing the poultry. How easy is this to do in a more primitive place?

Then there is the question of whether or not humans have receptors in the gut that allow H5N1 to attach there. So can we be infected thru the gut?

We do not know for sure. We do know that some victims had diarrhea as their presenting symptom that could indicate that the GI tract was involved

initially.

There is still much that we do not know about how people are getting infected.

http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2006/04/is-there-risk-from-eating-food.html

... the quality of medical history from many cases is poor. Often if infected birds have been seen anywhere in the neighborhood the case is assumed to be from contact with infected birds. But the EFSA monograph cites a personal communication from Peter Horby, WHO's epidemiologist in Vietnam, that one third of the Vietnamese cases have no history of direct exposure to poultry. In other countries, like Indonesia, many of the cases are so poorly investigated little reliance can be put on vague histories of poultry contact. Thus EFSA, along with many others (including WHO), would seem to have overstated this.

There's a lot of conventional wisdom about bird flu that will probably be shown to be wrong. Unfortunately no one is wise enough to know which.

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Another death in Indonesia in a case no one knew even existed, and Laos has confirmed that the older H5 case was in fact H5N1 as if there was any doubt:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/

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http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/03/a_thai_point_of.html#more

A Thai Point of View:

Yet this disease remains one of the scariest around because of the potential it possesses of making the long-feared evolutionary jump to human-to-human transmission. While this will always be a source of concern, we must retain a sense of perspective and avoid the panic and mild hysteria that all too often accompanies any mention of the bird flu virus.

Croft comments:

This kind of statement always mystifies me. In two years of tracking H5N1, I have found no sign of panic or "mild hysteria" in anyone discussing the problem. The topic seems to provoke depression, denial, sarcasm, and ridicule, but not panic or hysteria.

I couldn't agree with you more.

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