Pandemic News/Awareness.

indigo girl · Apr 3, 2007

"What I was questioning, and what EVERYONE should question is SOURCE
of information, something many of you have just voiced as welll...."

Sorry but no, they didn't just voice anything like that at all. No delphic consensus is going to occur either.

Continuing to ignore what H5N1 is doing, and implying yet again that all the information here is made up by bloggers, and that the govt sources are unreliable too does not add to the credibility of what you are saying. And, what has been offered so far has had nothing to do with avian influenza. You offer no clear demonstration of any understanding of H5N1.

indigo girl · Apr 3, 2007

Burma, fifth outbreak of avian flu this year:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/04/02/asia/AS-GEN-Myanmar-Bird-Flu.php

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/new_h5n1_in_ran.html

NIAID expands capability for influenza research and surveillance

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-04/nioa-nec040207.php

NIAID is expanding the surveillance and research program to now include six Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance. Their work will include determining the prevalence of avian influenza in animals that routinely come into close contact with people; understanding how flu viruses evolve, adapt and transmit infection; and identifying immunological factors that can determine whether a flu virus causes only mild illness or death. Additionally, some centers will monitor for international and domestic cases of animal and human influenza to rapidly detect and characterize viruses that may have pandemic potential and to create vaccine candidates targeted to those viruses. Ultimately, these studies will lay the groundwork for developing new and improved control measures for emerging and reemerging flu viruses.

indigo girl · Apr 3, 2007

More on Operation Panstop

Avian Flu Diary has pulled some of the PDF apart, and made the graphs more

legible, but as always, has provided a link to the source material.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/how-to-contain-pandemic.html

cactus wren · Apr 3, 2007

CRNI

Our CDC is in shambles due to poor management. They are actually pretty worthless when it comes to PF info.Read their own blog( oops,sorry my bad). Our Naval labs are doing heroic work on diagnosing AI. One is in Egypt, another is in Indo. Sounds pretty global to me.

If I could find timely, accurate informatiion in MSM I would read that.

MSMs message is; " Nothing to see, move along", and return to the endless fascination of who sired Anna`s baby.

Pandemics seem to occur about 3 times a century.We`re due.Currently H5N1 seems to be the front runner.But, there are others that could pull and end run and get us,too.

The blogs that you disparage so much have folks from all over the world, and posters range from stay at home Moms to world class virologists.

Maybe you need to read Sandman`s article on adjustment reactions.

gr8greens · Apr 3, 2007

CRNI
Our CDC is in shambles due to poor management. They are actually pretty worthless when it comes to PF info.Read their own blog( oops,sorry my bad). Our Naval labs are doing heroic work on diagnosing AI. One is in Egypt, another is in Indo. Sounds pretty global to me.
If I could find timely, accurate informatiion in MSM I would read that.
MSMs message is; " Nothing to see, move along", and return to the endless fascination of who sired Anna`s baby.
Pandemics seem to occur about 3 times a century.We`re due.Currently H5N1 seems to be the front runner.But, there are others that could pull and end run and get us,too.
The blogs that you disparage so much have folks from all over the world, and posters range from stay at home Moms to world class virologists.
Maybe you need to read Sandman`s article on adjustment reactions.

Good post, Cactus! I lurk alot......but I read more.

The doubters of this topic should take a little time and search the Flu sites. Prove to themselves whether or not a pandemic is worth worrying over.

I for one.....know that my hospital does NOT have enough PPEs for any lengthy battle of flu pandemic. We've got a total of 12 negative pressure/ airborne isolation rooms.....about half of which house TB pts. at any given moment.

Haven't a clue what happens if we get slammed w/ flu pts.

Laidback Al · Apr 3, 2007

Thanks for responding to my questions. Could you clarify a few things?

First:
I did not say that the information was being incorrectly reported here...
What I was questioning, and what EVERYONE should question is SOURCE
of information, something many of you have just voiced as well....
I personally don't believe we should base preparatory action for an alledged pandemic on BLOGS! I do believe that some government websites are also not ALWAYS that reliable in their information, because they rely in some instances on unreliable sources....(one only has to look back at our own CIA-Weapons of Mass Destruction fiasco.....Katrina-Mr. Brown-FEMA fiasco to get a clue at how CLUELESS some in government are!)

Yes, one should never blindly accept any single source. So where do you recommend that those of us who are concerned about a pandemic go to get good, unbiased, correct information about a potential pandemic if it is not being posted in this thread?

To answer your question, will there be another pandemic?:
It's hard to say, but most scientists who study cycles of virology, believe that we have ripened our population for one, due to the indiscriminate use of anti-biotics, anti-virals, etc.

Yes, I think many scientists believe there will be another pandemic. Indigo Girl has posted links to a lot of those articles. But you seem to dismiss those links, as if you don't think it is possible. If you have made up your own mind about the likelihood of a pandemic, would you mind sharing the sources and references you used to come up with your own opinion.

If there will be another pandemic, should we be preparing for it now?:
The answer is YES...IF WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE PREPARING FOR.
REMEMBER THE GOVERNMENT'S ANSWER AFTER 911 THAT WE SHOULD ALL GO OUT AND BUY PLASTIC AND DUCT TAPE TO PROTECT OURSELVES FROM CHEMICAL ATTACK???
If we are going to prepare, LET'S HAVE A SOLID FACTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT THE HECK WE ARE PREPARING FOR!!

I guess I misunderstand your comment. What does duct tape and plastic have to do with preparing for an influenza pandemic? You seem to suggest that we have only a limited understanding about the nature of another avian influenza pandemic, i.e. that we don't have solid factual knowledge. I an not a nurse, but with your medical background you must have some opinions or suggestions about how to protect one's self and one's family in the event of a pandemic.

Finally, if there will be another pandemic, how will we recognized(recognize) the start of it?:
1) we must allow scientists/virologists etc. to operate freely, without political or monetary prejudice.
2)we must recognize this is a WORLD issue, and not just Our County, USA issue, and therefore must allow other intelligent thinkers into the decision making process...(this would PRE-CLUDE some CDC people's decision to run the world according to the USA way of thinking.)
3)We must allow these uninhibited scientists and virologists the freedom to make decisions based on THEIR knowledge, not on someone in a government or drug company agency that may or may not act on that knowledge appropriately.
When this pathway is opened up, believe me, those who have studied, tracked, etc. the potential of pandemic, will know it when they see it....
Shouldn't these be the people we listen to?

Again, I am not in the medical field so I don't know who are the "theys" and "those" you are referring to in the last two sentences. Just exactly who are the people us lay folks should be listening to right now?

indigo girl · Apr 4, 2007

Indonesia, death #72, a 23 year old house maid:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/indonesia_death.html

Muhammad Nadirin of the health ministry's bird flu centre told Reuters that two tests on the 23-year-old housemaid from south Jakarta, who died
on April 1, confirmed she had bird flu.
"Her master keeps an eagle at home, she took care of the bird," Nadirin said.

sanctuary, BSN, MSN, RN · Apr 4, 2007

The point being that even IF we can believe all the CDC says....(which is more speculative than someone's researched blog) (remember all their disinterest in the AIDS epidemic here in our own country and how they poopooed the idea that gay men were dying in droves???)....it took an act of Congressional inquiry to get the CDC to pull their heads out, and listen!!
but...back to the point...
According to National Institues of Health, the SARS vaccine was developed in 2004....and admits that "hundreds" have died of the disease...(that is hardly a pandemic as was hyped, which shut down airports, the whole cities of Toronto and Hong Kong!
http://www.nih.gov/news/pr/dec2004/niaid-13.htm
As for lamecherry's blog:
All of what that blog says is true, and is correborated with NIH, WHO, and Vaccine Website information....
The point is....until there is REALLY proof that this isn't another one of those "cry wolf" scenarios, I do not see the point in helping to spread fear based facts produced by repeating the CDC mantras.....they have notoriously been COMPLETELY WRONG!
I would much rather see concern about why China is allowed to have such biologicals without any regard for the human race at large without some sort of overseer group....
But of course, this then, becomes the political arena....and God knows, when there are bazillions of dollars involved, there is no concern for a young girl in VietNam.
I don't see the point in perpetuating this fear driven stuff that is hardly based on truth....the CDC has messed up plenty of times....remember the Swine Flu epidemic and subsequent vaccine that was mass produced and killed more people than the supposed swine flu??
Like I said....
1) question your sources....
2) drug companies should not set public health policy
3) not all pandemics are pandemic
4)follow the money trail....you usually find the real truth at the end....

What difference does it make if it is a manufactured or natural virus??? Preparation and awareness is still the key weapons in the fight. I had the swine flu vaccine...yup. I'm dead.

sanctuary, BSN, MSN, RN · Apr 4, 2007

First:
I did not say that the information was being incorrectly reported here...
What I was questioning, and what EVERYONE should question is SOURCE
of information, something many of you have just voiced as well....
I personally don't believe we should base preparatory action for an alledged pandemic on BLOGS! I do believe that some government websites are also not ALWAYS that reliable in their information, because they rely in some instances on unreliable sources....(one only has to look back at our own CIA-Weapons of Mass Destruction fiasco.....Katrina-Mr. Brown-FEMA fiasco to get a clue at how CLUELESS some in government are!)
To answer your question, will there be another pandemic?:
It's hard to say, but most scientists who study cycles of virology, believe that we have ripened our population for one, due to the indiscriminate use of anti-biotics, anti-virals, etc.
If there will be another pandemic, should we be preparing for it now?:
The answer is YES...IF WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE PREPARING FOR.
REMEMBER THE GOVERNMENT'S ANSWER AFTER 911 THAT WE SHOULD ALL GO OUT AND BUY PLASTIC AND DUCT TAPE TO PROTECT OURSELVES FROM CHEMICAL ATTACK???
If we are going to prepare, LET'S HAVE A SOLID FACTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT THE HECK WE ARE PREPARING FOR!!
Finally, if there will be another pandemic, how will we recognized(recognize) the start of it?:
1) we must allow scientists/virologists etc. to operate freely, without political or monetary prejudice.
2)we must recognize this is a WORLD issue, and not just Our County, USA issue, and therefore must allow other intelligent thinkers into the decision making process...(this would PRE-CLUDE some CDC people's decision to run the world according to the USA way of thinking.)
3)We must allow these uninhibited scientists and virologists the freedom to make decisions based on THEIR knowledge, not on someone in a government or drug company agency that may or may not act on that knowledge appropriately.
When this pathway is opened up, believe me, those who have studied, tracked, etc. the potential of pandemic, will know it when they see it....
Shouldn't these be the people we listen to?

We are trying to listen to them, CRNI-ICU120- we really are. Indigogirl, laidback al, etc. are bringing them to us. :troll: :troll: :troll: sounds like to me.

indigo girl · Apr 4, 2007

Utah: Governor's Pandemic Advisory Report - Commentary Avian Flu Diary

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/utah-governor-pandemic-advisory-report.html

Influenza pandemics, the task force report notes, occur inevitably but at unpredictable intervals. When the next pandemic strikes the United States, the report says, an outbreak will last about six to eight weeks in each affected community, although multiple waves could occur. At least 30 percent of the population will become sick — but there likely won't be enough health care professionals or support personnel such as hospital housekeeping staff, the report warns.
During a pandemic, nurses may need to care for five times the recommended number of patients, but because many health care workers will fear that they'll take the flu home to their families, "there is the potential for decrease in available work force to be even higher than in the nonhealth care workplace."
In addition, most medical facilities have no protocols in place to stockpile supplies such as the respirators, masks, gowns and gloves that will be needed. The lack of ventilators, for example, may result in "triage criteria" for who gets what. Utah hospitals trying to stockpile supplies "are having a difficult time purchasing these supplies ... due to high volume orders being placed all over the country," according to the report.

We would be caring for 5 times the recommended number of patients?

I wonder how they came up with that number? With a CFR of 70%, it does not seem realistic somehow.

The part about no protocols in most facilities is absolutely correct.

indigo girl · Apr 4, 2007

Four cullers from Bangladesh, who are working in Kuwait have been

hospitalized. Their prelimary tests are positive for H5N1.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=74826&postcount=13

"If the outcome is reconfirmed as positive, we will have to send blood samples to the World Health Organisation (WHO) laboratory in Cairo for a final confirmation," the source said.
Health ministry spokesman Ahmad Al-Shatti told AFP an official statement would be made on Thursday, after tests results were reviewed, as to whether the four were indeed infected.
The ministry said specimens "have been sent to the World Health Organisation (WHO) reference laboratory in Egypt for confirmation.

Their samples have been sent on to NAMRU 3, the U.S. Naval lab in Cairo which means that it is likely that they have tested positive twice. But, we can not be certain of that yet.

cactus wren · Apr 4, 2007

Glad to see that were sent to NAMRU3. That means that we`ll get the sequences fairly rapidly. Will be interesting to see of they resemble Egypts or Indos.