Nursing and the economy...

BoogsDad · Oct 27, 2008

What's your take on the heathcare field, mainly nursing, In this sluggish economy? Is this going to hurt our shortage? Will it help? I read an article today that suggests this will be the worst financial crisis that baby boomer's will face in their lifetime. I was told by many that the baby boomers are what has helped create the nursing shortage in the is country as well. This article also suggests that this financial crisis will last until 2020, that is how long it will take to turn things around. What's your take on this?

Personally, I read all of those articles and lsiten to the news, and what I think is that we reap what we sow. We can all blame each other for keeping up with the Joneses, whatever... but the bottom line is this. Hard work, persistence, god decisions, forward thinking, and the belief that we can still trust the US government is what will get us through this. If we are afraid to spend, and we don't, more people will get laid off, more businesses will close, and more people will be out of their homes. I myself am working my rear end off to bring up my GPA and I am going to get in somewhere somehow. I only have myself and my family to rely on, and that is what is going to happen. I am not going to let a handful of rich, white-collar, selfish cowards who wanted to keep their yachts ruin this for me. That is just more motivation for me to do better. I will do whatever it takes go get this done. I will move my family in to my cousin's house if I have to... no one or anything else for that matter will stop me. Nursing will not be going anywhere, and if you are a good nurse, that will even moreso be the case.

Ok, I am off of my soapbox.

groovy jeff, RN · Oct 27, 2008

i lost $10k+ during the tech bubble and since that time i have studied economics and finance as a hobby. i am no expert; however, over the years i feel that i have figured out who to listen to and who not to listen to. the folks i have been listening to have been predicting the collapse of the housing bubble since 2004 and they were within 3 months of hitting the date. this is my limited, humble opinion of what will be happening:

healthcare is the right place to be. job growth might slow some as hospitals might not be expanding; however, lots of baby boomer nurses could be looking to retire. now is the time to invest in your education. if you have money invested that can be gotten to without taking a huge loss, get it and use it for your education. in my case, i sold my house before the bubble burst specifically to go to ns.
if you have money invested in stocks, mutual funds, etc. don't touch it unless you absolutely have to. the dow will hover between 8500-9000 for the next 3-4 years before it starts moving up again and it will move up very slowly.
it is going to be bad, very bad some places, for the next 4 years. the industries hardest hit will be manufacturing, finance, construction, and retail. there will be many mom & pop businesses that won't be able to continue on.
unemployment will be 8-10 % in 2009; possibly higher in 2010.
housing market will continue to go down for the next 3 years.
it will be a 8-10 year recovery process but don't look for it to be the easy credit times like we have had for the last 10 years. do everything you can to preserve your credit

now for the good news.

first let me say how awful it is to go through job loss, home loss, and just not being sure where your next dollar is coming from. my heart goes out to those people; i have been there and promised myself i would never be a financial victim ever again. so the good news will be that over the next 3-4 years it will be a buyers market. i will be able to buy a newer home at 40-50% less than what they were selling at peak. i will be able to buy a new or nearly new vehicle for 30%-40% less than i could have a year ago. i will be able to make some investments at bargain basement prices. here is an example- ford stock is currently selling for $2.02 / share. of all of the big 3 it is in the best position to survive. my personal belief is that it will be around $20-25/share in 4-5 years; i would have made over 1000% on my money.

we are in the right profession for bad economic times; nurses will fare better than most. again this is just my humble opinion.

sassiebaz · Oct 27, 2008

I told my husband we should sell....that was in 2006...he said no! UGH! Now we are stuck!

MsBruiser · Oct 29, 2008

What's your take on the heathcare field, mainly nursing, In this sluggish economy? Is this going to hurt our shortage? Will it help? I read an article today that suggests this will be the worst financial crisis that baby boomer's will face in their lifetime. I was told by many that the baby boomers are what has helped create the nursing shortage in the is country as well. This article also suggests that this financial crisis will last until 2020, that is how long it will take to turn things around. What's your take on this?

Hospitals are already feeling a slow-down. The good news, if you can call it that, elective surgeries may fall to an extent but people will always get sick. Bedside nurses may feel this impact last - but I'd sure hate to be in administration, education, or another non-essential/non-bedside role in the next few years. Nursing has a demographic imperative (older nurses, rapidly aging US population) in its favor - but hospitals will have to figure out financially how to survive (less health insurance from unemployment, illegal immigration, etc = less reimbursement). We will certainly have it much easier than other fields - but nurses will fell the pain to some extent - just less so. At the end of the day, people will always get sick. How they will pay for their care is another thing...I suspect the U.S. healthcare system will have a similar "collapse" sometime in the near future just like the US financial system.

Now - the future of the economy? No one knows. I am fairly well-versed on the subject, and I don't have the foggiest idea of what to expect. Remember - the stock market crashed in 1929 but the Great Depression didn't really rear its ugly head until 1932-1933. So what happens between now and whenever in the future is unchartered territory.

Nurse "Groovy" below sort of mirrors my thinking - expect the stock market to stagnate, housing to fall, and unemployment to rise. To what extent - no one really will know. Our country is about to go through some fairly Titanic political, social, and economic shifts. Since 1980s, the economic mantra has been "free markets know best." Anyone who heard Alan Greenspan talk before Congress the other day heard the free market guru himself say "I was wrong." Government will have to take a much bigger role in market regulation, healthcare, and even pensions (just look at your 401k statement - will the current older Boomers have to work until they are 80 to retire?).

All I know - I keep investing in the market. And I keep hoping for the best. Things will probably be ugly. Hopefully my family will get through. I am hopeful that our political system is getting the jolt it needs. That in itself is worth all the money I just lost in the market - to see 8 years of an incompetent administration go out in disgrace.

sassiebaz · Oct 31, 2008

So, will this have an effect on the schools? Like, will this make thing even more competetive than they already are???

AZMOMO2 · Oct 31, 2008

I'd say yes because people see healthcare as a job void of the worry about getting laid off when the economy starts to go sour... because as they say people always get sick. However those people don't know how nurses are subject to being sent home ( without pay if they don't have p-time) for things like low census. That lack of elective surguries may trickle down to that. However the lay person having no healthcare experience doesn't know that and will think... well I'll get into Nursing. Ok just my :twocents: but it could happen. I personally know people who have been laid off and have started looking at going back to school right now for Nursing.

MsBruiser · Oct 31, 2008

So, will this have an effect on the schools? Like, will this make thing even more competetive than they already are???

If I had a crystal ball I would be wealthy - and not working as a nurse. But here is my personal opinion:

Expect lots of people to consider nursing. BUT - I would also suspect that some programs like Banner may limit their enrollment. Check out the jobs page at any decent hospitals. Banner Good Sam had four pages of RN jobs last week. Down from about 12 over the summer. Other hospitals are similar - and as mentioned above, nurses are increasingly getting called off. So we may be entering a time where the supply of new nursing grads may be higher than demand. This is probably more of a temporary/situational bump in the road. But many companies in the US do not take the "long view" - that we need lots of nurses. So I suspect the Banner program may cut back on some of its campuses/enrollment periods, etc. Couple that with the rise in people who are considering nursing d/t economic conditions (I decided to try nursing after the last recession in 2001).

Things will get tight - but then the aging population coupled with aging nurses and traditional female demographic of nurses will eventually increase demand for bedside RN(s)

Kabin · Oct 31, 2008

Unfortunately there have been several nursing recessions in the past so nurses aren't immune, but I think nursing tolerates it well. On the other hand, I bet elective surgeries will slide, the laid-off/uninsured will seek less preventive care, pcp visits will decline, ER visits will climb, trauma 1 hospitals will lose money and some will close (michigan, ohio, etc), nurses will be called-off, laid-off, etc. I fear this recession will last several years. Not a good time to get a new car loan.

I recall seeing an ASU announcement of two campuses cutting nursing student counts in half. I'd guess community colleges will need to do the same.

sassiebaz · Oct 31, 2008

Seriously, I'm real scared!

groovy jeff, RN · Nov 1, 2008

Seriously, I'm real scared!

Don't be scared; just plan for it.

Just as Stopnic said this will not be a sudden thing; it will get worse slowly. The stock market and the housing industry are just a portion of our economy. Couple it with the downturn of the auto industry and the financial sector it will get worse. The trick is not to panic. Do everything you can to pay your debt off. Be a bargin shopper with coupons. Brown bag it and limit your Starbucks to once a week. The important thing is to avoid debt and pay down the debt you have. If you own your home and can make the payments do not worry about the value now; you haven't lost anything unless you sell it. The same thing goes for any investments you have, i.e. 401k, etc; you will only lose if you sell. If you have some extra money, now is the time to get into the stock market. I wish I had an extra $2000-3000 right now; I would be buying Ford stock at $2.20 / share!!

Just do everything you can do to plan for bad times; pay off your debt and save all you can. As Warren Buffet says "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful".

Knit1Purl2 · Nov 1, 2008

don't be scared; just plan for it.
just as stopnic said this will not be a sudden thing; it will get worse slowly. the stock market and the housing industry are just a portion of our economy. couple it with the downturn of the auto industry and the financial sector it will get worse. the trick is not to panic. do everything you can to pay your debt off. be a bargin shopper with coupons. brown bag it and limit your starbucks to once a week. the important thing is to avoid debt and pay down the debt you have. if you own your home and can make the payments do not worry about the value now; you haven't lost anything unless you sell it. the same thing goes for any investments you have, i.e. 401k, etc; you will only lose if you sell. if you have some extra money, now is the time to get into the stock market. i wish i had an extra $2000-3000 right now; i would be buying ford stock at $2.20 / share!!
just do everything you can do to plan for bad times; pay off your debt and save all you can. as warren buffet says "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful".

jeff,

you keep coming with this great advice. thanks, you really need a cool logical head in this economy. i am blessed that my husband is able to look at how things are trending and make good decisions.

( did you see how i said my husband and not me. :lol2: )

i refuse to worry anymore about this economy or how many nursing school seats there are.

we are in a state of change and those who are flexible, don't break, so thanks again for the great advice.