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Mortality rate of Covid-19

Posted

I hope someone can tell me I'm wrong, because I keep doing the math and getting the same numbers on mortality rate.

I know we hear 3% or so, and that would be terrible if a large percent of us are infected.

Please point out the flaw in my thinking on this..

World wide numbers:

201,436 total confirmed

8,006 dead

82032 recovered

In my mind the only numbers that matter to calculate mortality are those that have lived or died

recovered + dead = 90,038

8,006/ 90,038 = 0.0889

8.9% of those people of whom the disease has run its course have died.

I hope this math is wrong.

Kitiger, RN

Specializes in Private Duty Pediatrics. Has 40 years experience.

We don't know how many of the confirmed will live or die.

We don't know how many will be infected; certainly not all of the infected will be confirmed, as the illness is mild in so many.

And we don't know how many have recovered, since not all who are infected will be confirmed.

It is too early to calculate the mortality rate; we can only guess.

Edited by Kitiger
Added thought

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/

Quote

The new coronavirus has killed more than 8,700 people, which is about 4% of the 214,000 confirmed cases, making for a shocking death rate.

But the real fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is certainly lower, and possibly much lower. The reason epidemiologists can’t say for sure is they don’t know how many people are infected but never go to the hospital or even have symptoms. In essence, modelers are missing an accurate denominator of the death-rate calculation.