I hope someone can tell me I'm wrong, because I keep doing the math and getting the same numbers on mortality rate.I know we hear 3% or so, and that would be terrible if a large percent of us are infected.Please point out the flaw in my thinking on this..World wide numbers:201,436 total confirmed8,006 dead82032 recoveredIn my mind the only numbers that matter to calculate mortality are those that have lived or died recovered + dead = 90,038 8,006/ 90,038 = 0.08898.9% of those people of whom the disease has run its course have died.I hope this math is wrong. 0 Likes
Kitiger, RN Specializes in Private Duty Pediatrics. Has 40 years experience. Mar 18, 2020 We don't know how many of the confirmed will live or die.We don't know how many will be infected; certainly not all of the infected will be confirmed, as the illness is mild in so many.And we don't know how many have recovered, since not all who are infected will be confirmed.It is too early to calculate the mortality rate; we can only guess. Edited Mar 18, 2020 by Kitiger Added thought 0 Likes
2Ask Mar 19, 2020 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/QuoteThe new coronavirus has killed more than 8,700 people, which is about 4% of the 214,000 confirmed cases, making for a shocking death rate.But the real fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is certainly lower, and possibly much lower. The reason epidemiologists can’t say for sure is they don’t know how many people are infected but never go to the hospital or even have symptoms. In essence, modelers are missing an accurate denominator of the death-rate calculation. 1 Likes
