Pandemic News/Awareness.

indigo girl · Apr 4, 2007

Good point. NAMRU 3 has been remarkably helpful and transparent

with their information. Not to mention timely compared to other labs.

indigo girl · Apr 5, 2007

In Indonesia another 15 year old girl has been diagnosed as an H5N1 positive case. It is beyond sad to read about these young people

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/update_15yearol.html

indigo girl · Apr 5, 2007

Kuwait has announced that the Bangaladeshi cullers are negative for H5N1.

I suspect that we have not heard all that there is to hear about these cases, but for now, negative is negative:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=75039&postcount=23

indigo girl · Apr 5, 2007

More deaths in Indonesia, and this is beginning to remind me of the early days of the AIDS epidemic. These people are all under age 40.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/bird_flu_patien.html

...chairman of Bird Flu Management Team at Dr Moewardi Hospital, dr Suradi, said Suranto was admitted to the hospital on Friday, March 30.
But on Tuesday afternoon he was trasfered to special isolation room for bird flu after his condition got worse and made his breathing difficult.
Earlier on March 28, a bird flu patient, Wetono Hadi (39), from Jetis village in Mojokerto district, East Java, also died at Dr Soetomo Hospital in Surabaya.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/indonesia-reports-2nd-death-today-rizki.html

Laidback Al · Apr 5, 2007

Utah: Governor's Pandemic Advisory Report - Commentary Avian Flu Diary
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/utah-governor-pandemic-advisory-report.html
We would be caring for 5 times the recommended number of patients?
I wonder how they came up with that number? With a CFR of 70%, it does not seem realistic somehow.
The part about no protocols in most facilities is absolutely correct.

I just reviewed the Utah Plan. For planning purposes, they are anticipating a 30% attack rate. However, according to data in the table on page 38, the severe scenario is based on an assumed CFR of 2%. This plan is making a huge assumption that the virulence of an avian flu pandemic will be 20-30 times less than what we are seeing among the current H5N1 strickened individuals.

indigo girl · Apr 5, 2007

Why 2%? That is so out of line with what is happening. I just do not

understand this kind of reasoning.

It is true that there is currently a mild strain, we think, infecting mostly children in Egypt, but the older victims though still under age 40 had a much more virulent course. In Indonesia, the mortality rate is over 70%.

There is no way to predict which strain may become more transmissible if one does indeed develop that capability.

I sometimes think that even govt and public health just can not face the real numbers. But, we must. We have to look at this, and consider it in order to develop realistic planning for it. Obviously, no one wants to envision a worst case scenario, but to not make contingency plans for a higher CFR is irresponsible, unless of course they think that such a situation would be hopeless. I refuse to think that because I believe that there is always something that we could do to save more people if only by teaching them to be more self reliant.

indigo girl · Apr 6, 2007

Here's another Egyptian kid, 2 years old hopefully diagnosed with the mild strain:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L05386964.htm

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L05386964.]
A Health Ministry spokesman identified the girl as Fatmah Farouk Abdel-Gawwad from central Egypt, MENA reported. She was admitted to hospital on Wednesday, suffering from high fever and was being treated by Tamiflu, the agency said.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/egypt-new-case-reported-2-year-

indigo girl · Apr 6, 2007

13 year old Cambodian girl has died of avian flu:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=21263

The girl died at noon on April 5 and her blood samples were tested positive for the disease, according to a joint statement issued by the ministry and the World Health Organization (WHO).

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/cambodian_girl_.html

indigo girl · Apr 6, 2007

Indonesia

The 15 year old girl that we heard about yesterday has become the 73rd avian influenza casualty with multi organ failure, again as the direct cause of death:

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailtoplatest.asp?fileid=20070406132100&irec=0

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailtoplatest.asp?fileid=20070406132100&irec=0
The 15-year-old girl was admitted to the Sulianti Saroso Hospital for Infectious Diseases on Monday and died late Thursday, said Sardikin Giriputro, a doctor at the facility."By the time she arrived, it was too late," he said. "She died after experiencing multi-organ failure."

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/indonesian_teen_1.html

A very good commentary on this from croftsblogs that expresses my feelings exactly.