WHO says 2 billion people could be infected in next flu pandemic

[oramar]

http://KDKA.com/health/mexico.H1N1.virus.2.1003719.html

[indigo girl]

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2009/05/least-surprising-news-of-day.html

What does it really mean when WHO says that 2 billion people could be infected in the next so far undeclared flu pandemic?

Today during a press conference Dr. Keiji Fukuda of the World Health Organization said that up to 1/3rd of the world could become infected by the A/H1N1 `swine flu' virus.

A harmless enough statement, particularly if made in front of scientists who already understand that a 33% attack rate is about right for a novel influenza virus.

...before the news conference ended, Dr. Fukuda emphasized that it was not a prediction.

While we don't know what the attack rate of this virus will be, an estimate of 33% is probably quite reasonable for a novel influenza virus.

It is the same attack rate estimate you can find published (for years) on nearly every pandemic flu site in the world.