Swine Flu May Cause 90,000 U.S. Deaths, Report Says

Published

Some numbers from the White House, for swine flu before the year is out:

30%-50% infected

1.8 million hospitalized

300,000 in intensive care (taking 50%-100% of the beds)

30,000-90,000 dead

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8_2nrwYD1kM

Some believe the predictions are way over the top, some believe they're not grim enough. Guess we'll see. I'm still planning and preparing at home, and having a little hope that nothing happens this fall, and trying to get on full-time somewhere. Won't that be fun - orientating in the middle of a pandemic in the middle of a budget crisis in the middle of a staff shortage.

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Specializes in ICU, Telemetry.

Okay, if 1/2 the population falls ill....that's almost 200 million people getting sick. If only 1 percent of the 2 million die, that's the 20,000 number. That's in keeping with the current fatality ratio. HOWEVER...these folks are at the front end of the epidemic, when there's plenty of ICU beds, vents, meds and nurses. What happens if 1/2 the population working at your hospital is out with the flu? We're overjoyed when we have full staffing. Can you imagine working at 1/2 or 2/3 of your current staffing level for months with a constantly full house? Who's going to be the nurses running those ICU beds? What happens when you've got 10 vents, all full, and 30 people who need to be on the vent? We're going to lose people who would have otherwise survived, and that's when the fatalities are going to climb exponentially.

Oh, and if there's any mispellings...I had COK interference (cat on keyboard).....

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Okay, if 1/2 the population falls ill....that's almost 200 million people getting sick. If only 1 percent of the 2 million die, that's the 20,000 number. That's in keeping with the current fatality ratio. HOWEVER...these folks are at the front end of the epidemic, when there's plenty of ICU beds, vents, meds and nurses. What happens if 1/2 the population working at your hospital is out with the flu? We're overjoyed when we have full staffing. Can you imagine working at 1/2 or 2/3 of your current staffing level for months with a constantly full house? Who's going to be the nurses running those ICU beds? What happens when you've got 10 vents, all full, and 30 people who need to be on the vent? We're going to lose people who would have otherwise survived, and that's when the fatalities are going to climb exponentially.

Oh, and if there's any mispellings...I had COK interference (cat on keyboard).....

Your preaching my religion. I have said over and over healthcare has frozen and cut nursing staffing at a rate not seen in a decade. That going into a bad flu seasons. Oh boy, this is going to be interesting. All people, with and without insurance are going to get very angry when they are sitting in the ED with extremely ill family and there are no beds and no vents and the number of ECMO beds are very limited. The country is very into blaming. First the bedside staff that isn't out sick themselves will take a beating BUT THEN the public will get around to the CEOs and the politicians.
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I should add that the 90,000 dead number obviously doesn't include NYC's recent report that they would see a particularly high CFR and possibly 90,000 dead of their own.

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Specializes in LTC.

I think this is just fear mongering. I try to keep it in perspective. 115 die daily in car accidents.

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I think this is just fear mongering. I try to keep it in perspective. 115 die daily in car accidents.

Just curious... how would you describe it as fear mongering?

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Specializes in ICU, Telemetry.
I think this is just fear mongering. I try to keep it in perspective. 115 die daily in car accidents.

Yeah, but you can't catch a car accident from a dirty door nob....:wink2:

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