Spike in US Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths in Week 37

indigo girl · Sep 27, 2010

Spike In US Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths in Week 37

As I am posting this, I am facing a difficult night at work. My colleague is out with what she thinks may be the flu. She has not been tested but is very ill so who knows? Maybe flu, maybe not...She attended an event at a local tourist attraction on Friday. People come from everywhere to this spot, and it was probably crowed for the pre-Halloween festivity. She is expected to be out for several days, and as hard as it will be to be the only RN on the unit, I would rather work short than become ill especially on a mental health unit. I told her to stay home until she was well as none of us have been vaccinated yet with this season's flu vax although it is available at pharmacies everywhere right now. Our hospital is not offering the vax until the first week of October, and we won't have antibodies for 6 weeks or so.

Dr. Niman's take on the current situation with two main influenza viruses beginning to spread now that schools are open:

In Week 37 Pneumonia and Influenza deaths in the US spiked higher. The rate of 6.87% was well above the Week 37 epidemic threshold of 6.4% and also well above last week's rate of 5.92% or last year's Week 37 rate of 6.07%. Details are not available because the CDC does not issue weekly reports until week 40.
Pandemic H1N1 rarely affects those over 65 because of similarities with pandemic H1N1 from 1918 or seasonal H1N1 prior to the 1950's. Those over 65 are still protected by the antibodies made when younger. Thus, last year over 90% of H1N1 fatalities were younger than 65, while over 90% of those who die from seasonal , like H3N2 are over 65 and since H1N1 crowded out H3N2 last year, elderly flu deaths declined.
The decline in elderly patient's deaths last year has led to an increase in those at risk this year, and an early flu season start may be contributing to the spike in deaths for Week 37. As levels of pandemic H1N1 increase, then number of deaths under 65 will also rise. Thus, the number of Pneumonia and Influenza deaths in the 2010/2011 season may be at record levels.